Scenario-based risk assessment for rockfalls, requires assumptions for different scenarios of mag... more Scenario-based risk assessment for rockfalls, requires assumptions for different scenarios of magnitude (volume). The magnitude of such instabilities is related to the properties of the jointed rock mass, with the characteristics of the existing unfavourably dipping joint sets playing a major role. The critical factors for the determination of the maximum credible rockfall volume in a study site, the Forat Negre in Andorra, are investigated. The results from two previous analyses for the rockfall size distribution at this site are discussed. The first analysis provides the observed size distribution of the rockfall scars, and it is an empirical evidence of past rockfalls. The second one, calculates the kinematically detachable rock masses, indicating hypothetical rockfalls that might occur in the future. The later gives a maximum rockfall volume, which is one order of magnitude higher, because the persistence of the basal planes is overestimated. The tension cracks and lateral planes interrupt systematically the basal planes, exerting a control over their persistence, and restricting the formation of extensive planes and large rockfall failures. Nonetheless, the formation of basal planes across more than one spacings of tension cracks is possible and small step-path failures have been observed too. Concluding, the key factor for the determination of the maximum credible volume at the study-site is the maximum realistic length of the basal planes, penetrating into the rock mass, their spacing, and, if applied, the contribution of the rock bridges to the overall rock mass resistance.
The target of this study is the evaluation of repair mortar contribution to the dynamic behavior ... more The target of this study is the evaluation of repair mortar contribution to the dynamic behavior of Kaisariani Monastery in Athens, by using the tools of finite element analysis and fragility curves. Three types of mortars (concrete) are designed in order to simulate the Hagia Sophia historic mortar, by using different binding material: lime/metakaolin, hydraulic lime, lime/cement. In the developed model the mechanical characteristics of the designed mortars are used. In addition, fragility curves were developed and their results indicated that for the current situation of Kaisariani Monastery and for peak ground acceleration (PGA) value Z0.24 g, the probability of occurrence of serious damage is 59%. For PGA¼ 0.36 g an overall failure happened. For PGA¼0.40 and by using restoration mortar up to 15% of the total bed joint the failure percentage reduces in the range of 12-30%. Better protection is reported for lime/ cement mix design followed by hydraulic lime and lime/metakaolin.
This paper presents recommended methodologies for the quantitative analysis of landslide hazard, ... more This paper presents recommended methodologies for the quantitative analysis of landslide hazard, vulnerability and risk at different spatial scales (site-specific, local, regional and national), as well as for the verification and validation of the results. The methodologies described focus on the evaluation of the probabilities of occurrence of different landslide types with certain characteristics. Methods used to determine the spatial distribution of landslide intensity, the characterisation of the elements at risk, the assessment of the potential degree of damage and the quantification of the vulnerability of the elements at risk, and those used to perform the quantitative risk analysis are also described. The paper is intended for use by scientists and practising engineers, geologists and other landslide experts.
In this paper, two analytical procedures which are independent from the existence of empirical da... more In this paper, two analytical procedures which are independent from the existence of empirical data are presented for the calculation of (1) the size distribution of potentially unstable rock masses that expresses the potential rockfall size distribution, including big volumes corresponding to potential rare events with low susceptibility of failure and (2) the in situ block distribution on the slope face. Two approaches are, respectively, used. The first one involves the detection of kinematically unstable surfaces on a digital elevation model (DEM) and on orthophotos and the calculation of the volumes resting on them. For the second one the in situ block volumes formed by the intersection of the existing discontinuity sets are calculated using a high-resolution DEM. The procedures are presented through an application example at the country of Andorra and in particular at the chute of Forat Negre. The results from the first procedure indicate that it is kinematically possible to have mobilized volumes of some thousands of cubic meters; however, these are considered rare events with low susceptibility of failure. The size distribution of potentially unstable rock masses for big volume events was well fitted by a power law with an exponent of-0.5. The in situ block distribution on the slope face from the second procedure, assuming three types of intersection between the joints of the existing discontinuity sets and two extreme cases of discontinuity persistence, was also found to follow a power law, but with an exponent of-1.3. The comparison with the observed in the field block volume distribution on the slope face indicates that in reality discontinuities have a very high persistence and that considering only their visible trace length overestimates volumes, which is conservative.
Rock masses detached as rockfalls usually disintegrate upon impact on the ground surface. The kno... more Rock masses detached as rockfalls usually disintegrate upon impact on the ground surface. The knowledge of the rockfall block size distribution (RBSD) generated in the rockfall deposit is useful for the analysis of the trajectories of the rock blocks, runout distances, impact energies and for the quantitative assessment of the rockfall hazard. Obtaining the RBSD of a large rockfall deposit may become a challenge due to the high number of blocks to be measured. In this paper, we present a methodology developed for mid-size fragmental rockfalls (10 3 up to 10 5 m 3) and its application to the Cadí massif, Eastern Pyrenees. The methodology consists of counting and measuring block fragments in selected sampling plots within homogeneous zones in the young debris cover generated by the rockfall along with all the large scattered rock blocks. The size distribution of blocks obtained in the sampling plots is extrapolated to the whole young debris cover and summed to the inventoried large scattered blocks to derive the RBSD of the whole rockfall event. The obtained distributions from the fragments can be well fitted by a power law distribution, indicating the scale invariant character of the fragmentation process (Hartmann (Icarus 2(2):201-203, 1969); Turcotte (J Geophys Res 91(NO B2):1921-1926, 1986). The total volume of the rockfall fragments has been checked against the volume at the rockfall source. The latter has been calculated comparing 3D digital surface models before and after the rockfall event.
The methodologies available for the analytical quantification of the vulnerability of buildings w... more The methodologies available for the analytical quantification of the vulnerability of buildings which are subject to actions resulting from slope instabilities and landslides are relatively limited in comparison with other components of quantitative landslide risk assessment. This paper provides a general methodology for calculating the vulnerabilities of reinforced concrete frame structures that are subject to three types of slope instability: slow-moving landslides, rapid flow-type slides and rockfalls. The vulnerability is expressed using sets of fragility curves. A description of the general framework and of the specialised procedures employed is presented here, separately for each landslide mechanism, through the example of a single-bay one-storey reinforced concrete frame. The properties of the frame are taken into account as variables with associated uncertainties. The derived vulnerability curves presented here can be used directly by risk assessment practitioners without having to repeat the procedure, given the expected range of landslide intensities and for similar building typologies and ranges of structural characteristics. This permits the applicability of the calculated vulnerability to a wide variety of similar frames for a range of landslide intensity parameters.
The severity of the impact of a natural hazard on a society depends on, among other factors, the ... more The severity of the impact of a natural hazard on a society depends on, among other factors, the intensity of the hazard and the exposure and resistance ability of the elements at risk (e.g., persons, buildings and infrastructures). Social conditions strongly influence the vulnerability factors for both direct and indirect impact and therefore control the possibility to transform the occurrence of a natural hazard into a natural disaster. This article presents a model to assess the relative socioeconomic vulnerability to landslides at the local to regional scale. The model applies an indicator-based approach. The indicators represent the underlying factors that influence a community's ability to prepare for, deal with, and recover from the damage and loss associated with landslides. The proposed model includes indicators that characterize the demographic, social and economic setting as well as indicators representing the degree of preparedness, effectiveness of the response and capacity to recover. Although this model focuses primarily on the indirect losses, it could easily be extended to include physical indicators accounting for the direct losses. Each indicator is individually ranked from 1 (lowest vulnerability) to 5 (highest vulnerability) and weighted, based on its overall degree of influence. The final vulnerability estimate is formulated as a weighted average of the individual indicator scores. The proposed model is applied for six case studies in Europe. The case studies demonstrate that the method gives a reasonable ranking of the vulnerability. The practical experience achieved through the case studies shows that the model is straightforward for users with knowledge on landslide locations and with access to local census data.
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Papers by Olga Mavrouli