Papers by Marcelino Villafuerte
Evaluation of Multi-Week Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Philippines
Weather and Forecasting
In the pursuit of providing tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts beyond the conventional timescales co... more In the pursuit of providing tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts beyond the conventional timescales covered by weather forecasting in the Philippines, this study has examined the multi-week (i.e., from Week-1 to Week-4) TC forecast skill in the country. TC forecasts derived from three ensemble models, namely: NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF), and NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12) from 06 October 2020 to 31 October 2021 were verified. Results revealed that the ECMWF model is consistently the most skillful in multi-week TC prediction over the domain bounded by 110°–155°E and 0°–27°N in the western North Pacific. The ECMWF obtained hit rates ranging from 0.25 to 0.31, low false alarm rates of 0–0.33, and the highest equitable threat scores among the models. In contrast to this, the GEFSv12 and CFSv2 models had varying skills, with the former performing better in the f...
Long-term changes of extreme rainfall in Southeast Asia
Detection of trends and changes in extreme rainfall over the Philippines using the generalized extreme value distribution
Climate of the Philippines and the sea surface temperature effect on summer monsoon rainfall
Long-term Changes in Seasonal Progression Patterns of Rainfall in the Philippines
Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia
EGUGA, May 1, 2014
A climatological analysis of the southwest monsoon rainfall in the Philippines
Atmospheric Research, 2013
Abstract The historical behavior of the southwest monsoon (SWM) rainfall in the Philippines is de... more Abstract The historical behavior of the southwest monsoon (SWM) rainfall in the Philippines is described using observed rainfall during the months of June to September from 1961 to 2010. Data are obtained from meteorological stations situated in the western half of the country where the impact of SWM is well pronounced. Time series analysis indicates significant decreasing trends from 0.026% to 0.075% per decade in the total SWM rainfall in six of the nine stations (Ambulong, Baguio, Coron, Dagupan, Iba and Vigan) in the past 50 years. A rainfall anomaly index is derived to characterize the inter-annual variability and the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation on the SWM rainfall. Results show no above normal rainfall events associated with La Nina years and few occurrences of below normal rainfall associated with El Nino events. Years where the SWM rainfall significantly deviates from its climate mean are also identified. Furthermore, an examination of the rainfall extremes indicate an increasing trend in the number of days without rain, which can be detected with statistical confidence in Ambulong (2.9% per decade), Baguio (5.9% per decade) and Dagupan (4.0% per decade), as well as a decreasing trend in the heavy rainfall days. These findings suggest a climatic change towards a prolonged dry period and an overall decreasing trend in rainfall during the SWM season over western Philippines in the recent decades, which can have serious implications on the country's agricultural sector.
ClimDatPh: an Online Platform for Philippine Climate Data Acquisition
The Philippine journal of science, Oct 27, 2020
Climatic data rescue in Southeast Asia and Japan.), May 22
Impacts of planetary boundary layer parameterization in RegCM4.7 on the intensity and structure of simulated tropical cyclones over the Philippines
Climate Dynamics, Mar 30, 2022
Nature Food, 2022
Southeast Asia is a major rice-producing region with a high level of internal consumption and acc... more Southeast Asia is a major rice-producing region with a high level of internal consumption and accounting for 40% of global rice exports. Limited land resources, climate change and yield stagnation during recent years have once again raised concerns about the capacity of the region to remain as a large net exporter. Here we use a modelling approach to map rice yield gaps and assess production potential and net exports by 2040. We find that the average yield gap represents 48% of the yield potential estimate for the region, but there are substantial differences among countries. Exploitable yield gaps are relatively large in Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines and Thailand but comparably smaller in Indonesia and Vietnam. Continuation of current yield trends will not allow Indonesia and Philippines to meet their domestic rice demand. In contrast, closing the exploitable yield gap by half would drastically reduce the need for rice imports with an aggregated annual rice surplus of 54 million t...
Southeast Asia is a major rice-producing region, with high level of internal consumption and acco... more Southeast Asia is a major rice-producing region, with high level of internal consumption and accounting for 40% of global rice exports. Limited land resources, climate change, and yield stagnation during recent years have once again raised concerns about the capacity of the region to meet the growing demand for rice and remain as a large net exporter. Here we use a modelling approach to map rice yield gaps and assess production potential and net exports by 2040. We find that the average yield gap represents 48% of the yield potential estimate for the region. Exploitable yield gaps are relatively large in Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, and Thailand, but comparably smaller in Indonesia and Vietnam. Continuation of current yield trends will not allow Indonesia and Philippines to meet their domestic rice demand. In contrast, closing the exploitable yield gap would allow all countries to achieve rice self-sufficiency, with an aggregated annual rice surplus of 100 million tons available ...
Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
This study investigates the potential predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the P... more This study investigates the potential predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on weekly timescales using the NCEP 16-day Global Ensemble Forecast System (NCEP-GEFS). An algorithm that uses information on selected dynamic and thermodynamic criteria was utilized to detect and track TC-like vortices (TCLV) from the 6-hourly NCEP-GEFS model runs covering a two-year period from 1 January to 31 December in 2015 and 2017. A 2×2 contingency table was used to summarize the event forecast relative to the observed TC occurrence and subsequent tracks over the PAR on weekly timescales. A forecast hit was declared if there is at least 50% overlap between the polygons created from the drawn circles with 500 km radius centered at the identified forecast TCLV center and the observed TC track. The hindcast period covering the evaluation of NCEP-GEFS indicate a hit-rate of 0.49 and 0.19 for the 1-and 2-week TC forecasts, respectively in the PAR. It is also revealed that the stronger the TC and the farther it developed to the eastern boundary of the PAR, which typically occur during El Niño (as in the 2015 case), the higher chance it could be forecasted one week ahead of time. Furthermore, better TC predictability in the PAR is achieved when the Madden-Julian Oscillation's active convection phase is located over Africa and the western Indian Ocean (Phase 1) for the Week-1 forecast period and over the Maritime Continent (Phase 5) for the Week-2 forecast period.
Long-term variability of seasonal rainfall characteristics in the Philippines
The American Journal of Gastroenterology, 2012
Characterization of the historical southwest monsoon rainfall in the Philippines
The historical behavior of the southwest monsoon (SWM) rainfall is examined, particularly over we... more The historical behavior of the southwest monsoon (SWM) rainfall is examined, particularly over western Philippines, using observed data and model results. A rainfall anomaly index shows a potential seasonal reversal in the SWM rainfall in response to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. A drying trend in the SWM rainfall is also found in the recent decades over selected stations. The regional climate model used is able to capture the spatial distribution of SWM rainfall and direction of prevailing winds. Validation tests further illustrate the model’s skill with correlations and skill scores of up to 0.97.
Japan Geoscience Union, 2017
Extreme rainfall values were examined to detect long-term changes in the Philippines and to inves... more Extreme rainfall values were examined to detect long-term changes in the Philippines and to investigate whether such changes are associated with the rising near-surface global mean temperature and the El Niñ o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for the 100-year period (1911-2010). The generalized extreme value distribution was formulated to its stationary and non-stationary forms, and then was fitted by the maximum likelihood method to the series of daily rainfall annual maxima (RX1day) at 23 meteorological stations in the Philippines. Subsequently, statistically significant changes in extreme rainfall in the country were detected. Such changes were further linked to the near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. Specifically, the study has revealed a country-averaged increase in the median intensity of extreme rainfall associated with the rise in the near-surface global mean temperature. Furthermore, a seasonal influence of ENSO on extreme rainfall in the Philippines has been shown. I...
Changes in rainfall extremes in the Philippines and neighboring Southeast Asian countries
Past and recent extreme rainfall events in the Philippines
Trends and variability in rainfall characteristics in the Philippines
The American Journal of Gastroenterology, 2012
The seasonal role of ENSO and monsoon on the interannual variations of rainfall extremes in the Philippine
Geographical reports of Tokyo Metropolitan University, 2014
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Papers by Marcelino Villafuerte