Indermit Gill

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Securing our future in a global economy

by Nadeem Ilahi, Indermit Gill, and Francisco H. G. Ferreira

World Bank Latin American and Caribbean studies ; viewpoints;, 2000

In the 1990s Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) began to resurface from the lost decade of the... more In the 1990s Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) began to resurface from the lost decade of the 1980s after a sustained reform effort by the countries to enhance the role of market forces and increase the region's real and financial integration into the global economy. In spite of this, perceptions of economic insecurity run high in the region. This report assesses the extent, causes, and effects of economic insecurity in LAC and identifies policies and institutions that can help reduce the degree of insecurity faced by workers and households in the region, while allowing them to take advantage of the enhanced economic opportunities brought about by the recent reforms. After stating the facts concerning economic insecurity in Chapter 2, the report then sets out a general analytical framework to help organize the various options available to individuals and governments for dealing with economic insecurity (Chapter 3). With this framework, the remaining chapters focus on measures to deal with risks. First, they suggest the causes of macroeconomic or aggregate volatility and some remedies (Chapter 4). Then this report examines how these risks affect individuals and households, and their responses to economic shocks (Chapter 5). Next the report discusses the risk of becoming unemployed, and the public responses to help workers deal with this risk (Chapter 6). Appropriate social insurance and social protection is considered in the final chapter.

World Bank

Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published i... more Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions. The IZA research network is committed to the IZA Guiding Principles of Research Integrity. The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent nonprofit organization supported by Deutsche Post Foundation. The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its international network, workshops and conferences, data service, project support, research visits and doctoral program. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research results and concepts to the intereste...

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Paper written for the Regional Study “Dealing with Economic Insecurity in Latin America and the Caribbean, ” Office of the Chief Economist, Latin America and Caribbean Region, The World Bank. We are grateful to Francisco Ferreira, Robert

are responsible for the views expressed here. Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di ... more

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Conference edition 1 1 Perspectives on East Asian Development: An Introduction

A diverse region Some say this will be Asia’s century. If so, its origins began more than 40 year... more

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Comment on “The Boulevard of Broken Dreams: Industrial Policy and Entrepreneurship” by Josh Lerner

The Industrial Policy Revolution I, 2013

It is a pleasure to comment on this paper, which is essentially chapter 1 of the 2009 book by Jos... more

I. The Need for Reform

* The paper was initiated by the office of the chief economist of the World Bank who wanted the k... more * The paper was initiated by the office of the chief economist of the World Bank who wanted the key staff involved in pension issues to explain to non-pension Bank staff and the outside world the Bank's policy on pension reforms. The result constitutes a joint cross-sector effort much of which was in addition to regular working hours and has benefited from presentations and comprehensive discussions with the pension community within the Bank and from tough but extremely valuable reviews from five outside experts: Nick

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The Economic Geography of Regional Integration – Finance Indermit Gill

ITH the future of the Doha Round uncertain, there has been a sharp increase in the number of bila... more ITH the future of the Doha Round uncertain, there has been a sharp increase in the number of bilateral and regional trade agreements. This has revived long-running arguments in international economics between those promoting global trade agreements and those favoring regional approaches. But in many ways this has been the wrong debate, especially for the world’s smallest, poorest, and most geographically disadvantaged countries, such as those in Africa and Central Asia. one reason is that the difference between trade agreements and more general mechanisms for integration is often misunderstood. Regional integration includes a multitude of steps that increase the competitiveness of participating countries, not just preferential trade access. Second, this debate often implies a false choice between regional versus global integration. Both are necessary because they support different objectives. Regional integration helps small and remote countries scale up supply capacity in regional ...

Comment on “The Boulevard of Broken Dreams: Industrial Policy and Entrepreneurship” by Josh Lerner

It is a pleasure to comment on this paper, which is essentially chapter 1 of the 2009 book by Jos... more

Europe 4.0

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Measuring development assistance for health systems strengthening and health security: an analysis using the Creditor Reporting System database

F1000Research, 2020

Background: Health systems strengthening (HSS) and health security are two pillars of universal h... more Background: Health systems strengthening (HSS) and health security are two pillars of universal health coverage (UHC). Investments in these areas are essential for meeting the Sustainable Development Goals and are of heightened relevance given the emergence of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This study aims to generate information on development assistance for health (DAH) for these areas, including how to track it and how funding levels align with country needs. Methods: We developed a framework to analyze the amount of DAH disbursed in 2015 for the six building blocks of the health system (‘system-wide HSS’) plus health security (emergency preparedness, risk management, and response) at both the global (transnational) and country level. We reviewed 2,427 of 32,801 DAH activities in the Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database (80% of the total value of disbursements in 2015) and additional public information sources. Additional aid activities were identified through...

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Alguns determinantes de sustentabilidade das Reformas da Administração Pública

Revista do Serviço Público, 2014

Este artigo trata de um dos aspectos da reforma administrativa no Brasil: sua eficácia na passage... more Este artigo trata de um dos aspectos da reforma administrativa no Brasil: sua eficácia na passagem da remuneração e de outras condições de emprego do setor público a uma posição mais próxima do mercado. As reformas administrativas propõem o direcionamento de algumas tarefas, que a princípio eram de responsabilidade do governo, para o setor privado. Não é tratado aqui o problema da organização eficiente das funções governamentais (aquelas ligadas à eficiência interna), mas, em vez disso, põe em evidência o problema da insustentabilidade das reformas do serviço público, que surge se as condições de emprego permanecem notavelmente diferentes entre os setores público e privado (o problema da eficiência externa). Utilizando dados relativos ao Brasil, este artigo determina estimativas agregadas da expansão dessas distorções em diferentes níveis de governo e extrai as lições políticas. Avalia, ainda, o que está sendo feito no Brasil com relação às medidas de política sugeridas pela análise.

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Growth Strategies to Avoid the Middle-Income Trap

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

Since the authors of this chapter coined the term in 2006, “the middle-income trap” has been the ... more Since the authors of this chapter coined the term in 2006, “the middle-income trap” has been the subject of scores of investigations. The evidence in support of its existence has been mixed, but their original proposition was that of the possibility of a trap, not its inevitability. In this chapter, they emphasize the absence of a functional theory of economic growth in middle-income economies. Solow–Swan models did well to explain growth in low-income countries, and Lucas–Romer models emphasizing endogenous technical change identified the main drivers of growth in advanced economies. Neither class of models has, however, satisfactorily explained successful transitions from one type of growth to the other. The authors suggest that Schumpeterian models proposed by Aghion, Howitt, and others that stress creative destruction and institutional change provide the analytical foundations for a better understanding of growth in middle-income economies. They present evidence that is consistent with the predictions of this approach, and discuss its policy implications.

Are Economic Relations with India Helping Africa? Trade, Investment and Development in the Middle-Income South

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

The authors would like to thank Arti Grover Goswami of the World Bank and participants at a semin... more The authors would like to thank Arti Grover Goswami of the World Bank and participants at a seminar at Duke University on October 2, 2018 for helpful conversations and comments. All errors are ours. This is one of four recent papers by researchers at the Duke Center for International Development on development in middle-income economies in Sub-Saharan Africa (henceforth SSA, or Africa). The first two papers (Gill and Karakülah, 2018a and 2018b) explore the slowdown in economic growth and the acceleration of increases in public debt in the region. The objectives of the third and this fourth paper are to understand the changes in economic relationships between the African subcontinent and China and India, respectively, especially since the turn of the century. They emphasize the similarities and differences in their investment, trade and development assistance relations with Africa. This paper investigates India's trade and investment relationship with SSA. The paper reviews (i) trade and investment relations between India and Africa by analyzing period-wise export and import transactions, (ii) investments by Indian private and state-owned enterprises in SSA, and (iii) loans extended by the Indian government to various African nations. It also contrasts India's trade and investment in SSA with China's economic connections with the region. Using case studies of the involvement of Indian private enterprises in three development-critical areashealthcare, telecommunications, and renewable energy-the paper identifies measures that might be considered by policymakers in the two subcontinents to foster facets of the relationship that provide benefits both for Africa and India. Put another way, the paper asks whether India's increasing economic imprint in Sub Saharan Africa is aiding development efforts of the countries in the continent (Gill and Karakülah, 2018, asks whether China's economic activities-trade, investment and aid-are helping or hurting Africa). Economic relations amongst developing countries can only be stable if they are based on mutual benefit. Relations between middle-income Africa, lower middle-income India and upper middle-income China are not just stable but quite bouyant, so the answer is pretty straightforward. What is also becoming clear is that the view of Africa as a low-income region trading mostly with high-income economies in Europe and North America is obsolete. Africa should now be seen as a mainly middle-income region with ever-stronger economic ties with middle-income economies in Asia and other parts of the world. Since the Second World War, regions across the world have integrated into the global economy at different times, at varying speeds, and by relying on trade based on differing factor intensities. What they had in common was that their economies had to become more efficient. This meant producing goods and services for international markets whose production was intensive in the factors of production that they had in abundance. Among developing regions, for example, East Asian integration into world markets was led by labor-intensive exports, as should have been expected of a region had a third of the world's labor force. After the fall of communism, countries of the former Soviet Union integrated into the global economy with exports intensive in natural resources. Again, this was logical; the region has about a third of the world's known oil, gas, and mineral reserves. Unsurprisingly, resource-rich economies in Sub Saharan Africa have used natural resources to integrate with the world economy. During the last two decades, this trend accelerated with the emergence of China and India as major economic powerhouses. Growing India and China

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Améliorer les politiques de développement régional

Financing of international collective action for epidemic and pandemic preparedness

The Lancet. Global health, Aug 18, 2017

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A la vanguardia del desarrollo: Reflexiones desde el Banco Mundial

The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do... more The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this volume do not imply any judgment concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Los hallazgos, interpretaciones y conclusiones expresados aquí son los del (los) autor (es) y no reflejan necesariamente las opiniones de los directores del Banco Mundial, o de los gobiernos que ellos representan. El Banco Mundial no garantiza la exactitud de los datos incluidos en este trabajo. Las fronteras, los colores, los nombres y otra información expuesta en cualquier mapa de este volumen no denotan, por parte del Banco, juicio alguno sobre la condición jurídica de ninguno de los territorios, ni aprobación o aceptación de tales fronteras. This work was originally published by the Word Bank in English as At the Frontlines of Development. Reflections from the World Bank in 2005. This Spanish translation was arranged by Mayol Ediciones. Mayol Ediciones is responsible for the quality of the translation. In case of any discrepancies the original language will govern. Publicado originalmente en inglés como At the Frontlines of Development. Reflections from the World Bank, por el Banco Mundial en 2005. Esta traducción fue hecha por Mayol Ediciones, editorial que es responsable de su precisión. En caso de discrepancias, prima el idioma original.

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Asegurando el futuro en una economia globalizada

Hecho en los Estados Unidos de América Primera impresión: junio de 2000 Los resultados, interpret... more Hecho en los Estados Unidos de América Primera impresión: junio de 2000 Los resultados, interpretaciones y conclusiones que se expresan en este documento corresponden a los autores y no se deben atribuir de modo alguno al Banco Mundial, sus organizaciones afiliadas o los miembros de su Directorio Ejecutivo ni a los países a quienes éstos representan. El Banco Mundial no garantiza la exactitud de los datos que aparecen en esta publicación y no acepta responsabilidad alguna por las consecuencias que puedan derivarse de su utilización. Las fronteras, colores, denominaciones y otra información que aparezca en algún mapa de este volumen no implican juicio alguno respecto a la situación jurídica de algún territorio; tampoco indican que el Grupo del Banco Mundial reconoce o acepta dichas fronteras. El material de esta publicación está protegido por el derecho de propiedad intelectual. Las solicitudes de autorización para reproducir partes de esta publicación deben enviarse a la Oficina del Editor, a la dirección indicada antes. El Banco Mundial fomenta la difusión de su trabajo y normalmente concederá el permiso con prontitud y sin cargo alguno cuando la reproducción no tenga finalidades comerciales. La autorización para copiar partes del documento que se utilizarán con fines didácticos la otorga el

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The World Bank research observer 23 (1)

The World Bank Research Observer, Feb 1, 2008

comprises 2 issues. Prices include postage: b r subscribers outside the Americas, issucs are sent... more

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Technological Change, Education and Obsolescence of Human Capital: Some Evidence for the U. S

Rapport sur le developpement dans le monde 2009 : repenser la geopraphie economique

Economic growth will be unbalanced, but development can still be inclusive-that is the message of... more Economic growth will be unbalanced, but development can still be inclusive-that is the message of this year's World development report, the thirty-first in the series. As economies grow from low to high income, production becomes more concentrated spatially. Some places, cities, coastal areas, and connected countries-are favored by producers. As countries develop, the most successful ones also institute policies that make living standards of people more uniform across space. The principle for a successful spatial transformation, getting the immediate benefits of concentration of production, and the long term benefits of a convergence in living standards, is economic integration. The report first describes the spatial transformations needed for development. It analyzes these changes using the insights from economic history and recent research. Then it revisits the policy debates on urbanization, regional development, and international integration.

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