Forest and agriculture are the two dominant land uses in the Southeastern U.S., collectively acco... more Forest and agriculture are the two dominant land uses in the Southeastern U.S., collectively accounting for almost 90 percent of the land base. Differences in climate change impacts on forest and agricultural productivity can lead to reallocations of land between the two sectors as landowners adjust to the changes in economic conditions. In this paper, we apply the impacts of
Integrative Studies in Water Management & Land Deve, 2007
Water shortages are often considered a problem in the western United States, where water supply i... more Water shortages are often considered a problem in the western United States, where water supply is limited compared to the eastern half of the country. However, periodic water shortages are also common in the southeastern United States due to high water demand and periodic drought. Southeastern U.S. municipalities spend billions of dollars to develop water storage capacity as a buffer against periodic drought. Buffers against water shortage include the development of water reservoirs and well excavation to mine ancient aquifers. It is important to have good estimates of future water supply and demand to prevent wasting money by creating more reservoir capacity than is needed by a community. Conversely, a lack of water reserve capacity can lead to the need for water restrictions.
Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sink... more Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. We used land use and forest inventory data to estimate how forest C dynamics have changed in the southeastern United States and attribute changes to land use, management, and disturbance causes. From 2007-2012, forests yielded a net sink of C because of net land use change (+6.48 Tg C yr(-1)) and net biomass accumulation (+75.4 Tg C yr(-1)). Forests disturbed by weather, insect/disease, and fire show dampened yet positive forest C changes (+1.56, +1.4, +5.48 Tg C yr(-1), respectively). Forest cutting caused net decreases in C (-76.7 Tg C yr(-1)) but was offset by forest growth (+143.77 Tg C yr(-1)). Forest growth rates depend on age or stage of development and projected C stock changes indicate a gradual slowing of carbon accu...
Understanding the implications of past, present and future patterns of human land use for biodive... more Understanding the implications of past, present and future patterns of human land use for biodiversity and ecosystem function is increasingly important in landscape ecology. We examined effects of land-use change on four major forest communities of the Southern Appalachian Mountains (USA), and addressed two questions: (1) Are forest communities differentially susceptible to loss and fragmentation due to human land use? (2) Which forest communities are most likely to be affected by projected future land cover changes? In four study landscapes, maps of forest cover for four time periods (1950, 1970, 1990, and projections for 2030) were combined with maps of potential forest types to measure changes in the extent and spatial pattern of northern hardwoods, cove hardwoods, mixed hardwoods, and oak-pine. Overall, forest cover increased and forest fragmentation declined in all four study areas between 1950 and 1990. Among forest community types, cove hardwoods and oak-pine communities were most affected by land-cover change. Relative to its potential, cove hardwoods occupied only 30-40% of its potential area in two study landscapes in the 1950s, and oak-pine occupied ϳ 50% of its potential area; cove hardwoods remained reduced in extent and number of patches in the 1990s. Changes in northern hardwoods, which are restricted to high elevations and occur in small patches, were minimal. Mixed hardwoods were the dominant and most highly connected forest community type, occupying between 47 and 70% of each study area. Projected land-cover changes suggest ongoing reforestation in less populated regions but declining forest cover in rapidly developing areas. Building density in forest habitats also increased during the study period and is projected to increase in the future; cove hardwoods and northern hardwoods may be particularly vulnerable. Although increases in forest cover will provide additional habitat for native species, increases in building density within forests may offset some of these gains. Species-rich cove hardwood communities are likely to be most vulnerable to future land-use change. stream fauna (Richards et al. 1996), and they alter the abundance and spatial pattern of native habitats, often resulting in habitat loss and fragmentation (Skole et al.
Development pressures in rural mountainous areas of the United States hold crucial implications f... more Development pressures in rural mountainous areas of the United States hold crucial implications for water quality. Especially important are changes in the extent and pattern of various land uses. We examine how position along an urban-rural gradient affects landscape patterns in a southern Appalachian watershed, first by testing for the effect of distance from an urban center on land-cover change
Indicator 38—Value of Investment, Including Investment in Forest Growing, Forest Health Management, Planted Forests, Wood Processing, Recreation, and Tourism
Forecasting Forest Type and Age Classes in the Appalachian-Cumberland Subregion of the Central Hardwood Region
ABSTRACT This chapter describes how forest type and age distributions might be expected to change... more ABSTRACT This chapter describes how forest type and age distributions might be expected to change in the Appalachian-Cumberland portions of the Central Hardwood Region over the next 50 years. Forecasting forest conditions requires accounting for a number of biophysical and socioeconomic dynamics within an internally consistent modeling framework. We used the US Forest Assessment System (USFAS) to simulate the evolution of forest inventories in the subregion. The types and ages of forests in the Appalachian-Cumberland portions of the Central Hardwood Region are likely to shift over the next 50 years. Two scenarios bracket a range of forest projections and provide insights into how wood products markets as well as economic, demographic, and climate changes could affect these future forests. Shifts in the future age distributions of forests are dominated by projected harvest regimes that lead to qualitatively different forest conditions. The future area of young forests correlates with change in total forest area—as total forest area declines, so does the area of young forests. However, changes in the area of young forests and forest age class distributions are most directly altered by the extent of harvesting within the Appalachian-Cumberland subregion.
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Papers by David Wear