This paper explains how the performance contract and clear accountability for monetary policy in ... more This paper explains how the performance contract and clear accountability for monetary policy in New Zealand place strong requirements for transparent decision-making based on evidence and analysis. It explores the tension between the requirements of the policy-maker and the constraints from evidence on the economic modeller in the context of the recent development of a Monetary Conditions Index. The paper provides a detailed insight into monetary policy formulation in a central bank. ᮊ 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
We study lessons from the experience of Finland in meeting the challenges of joining the euro are... more We study lessons from the experience of Finland in meeting the challenges of joining the euro area at its outset and its subsequent economic success. Traditional optimum currency area theory is too limited a framework for judging the experience in qualifying and membership.Five main factors have an influence on the experience: asymmetric shocks in the country joining the area; the prior conditions, particularly the real exchange rate; structural flexibility of the country; degree of economic, institutional and regulatory integration; attractiveness of the outside option. The main lessons to be learned from the Finnish experience are: the importance of timing; the fact that targeting low inflation and prudent fiscal policy can deliver nominal convergence; the relative merits of prior convergence of economic structures, policies and institutions and favourable starting conditions, as opposed to imminent membership itself changing structural behaviour and providing the discipline for change.
We study lessons from the experience of Finland in meeting the challenges of joining the euro are... more We study lessons from the experience of Finland in meeting the challenges of joining the euro area at its outset and its subsequent economic success. Traditional optimum currency area theory is too limited a framework for judging the experience in qualifying and membership.Five main factors have an influence on the experience: asymmetric shocks in the country joining the area; the prior conditions, particularly the real exchange rate; structural flexibility of the country; degree of economic, institutional and regulatory integration; attractiveness of the outside option. The main lessons to be learned from the Finnish experience are: the importance of timing; the fact that targeting low inflation and prudent fiscal policy can deliver nominal convergence; the relative merits of prior convergence of economic structures, policies and institutions and favourable starting conditions, as opposed to imminent membership itself changing structural behaviour and providing the discipline for change.
... EMU was less than 100 per cent and the probability of Finland being among the first group of ... more ... EMU was less than 100 per cent and the probability of Finland being among the first group of countries was even smaller, allowed many decision makers and opinion leaders to refrain from taking a clear position for or against EMU in the early years of Finland's EU membership. ...
Using recent advances in time-varying spectral methods, this research analyses the growth cycles ... more Using recent advances in time-varying spectral methods, this research analyses the growth cycles of the core of the euro area in terms of frequency content and phasing of cycles. The methodology uses the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and also Hilbert wavelet pairs in the setting of a non-decimated discrete wavelet transform in order to analyse bivariate time series in terms of conventional frequency domain measures from spectral analysis. The findings are that coherence and phasing between the three core members of the euro area (France, Germany and Italy) have increased since the launch of the euro.
The aim of the present analysis is to shed light on the question whether Central Banks should pub... more The aim of the present analysis is to shed light on the question whether Central Banks should publish their macroeconomic forecasts, and what could possibly be gained in monetary policy if they did so. We show that disclosing the Central Bank's assessment of the prevailing inflationary pressures in the form of a forecast improves macroeconomic performance even if this assessment is imprecise. This is because it makes policy more predictable. We are also interested in finding out the useful content of the forecasts, if published, and answering the question whether it makes a difference if these official forecasts are "unconditional" in the sense of incorporating the Central Bank's forecasts of its own policy as well, or "conditional" on some other policy assumption. Possible conditional alternatives may include assuming unchanged instruments, however specified, or assuming the kind of policy that the private sector is estimated to expect. The analysis comes out in favour of publishing unconditional forecasts, which reveal the intended results of monetary policy. A discussion of some practical issues related to publishing official macroeconomic forecasts is also provided.
Abstract This article provides a description of Oxford Economic Forecasting's suite of e... more Abstract This article provides a description of Oxford Economic Forecasting's suite of econometric models. The set of models contains three interlinked elements: a macromodel of the UK economy, a complete model of the world economy consisting of 15 individual ...
Obstacles to the Use of the ECU: Macroeconomic Aspects
I. INTRODUCTION The Delors Committee 'agreed that there should be no discrimination ... more I. INTRODUCTION The Delors Committee 'agreed that there should be no discrimination against the private use of the ECU and that existing administrative obstacles should be removed'. (Delors, i989, para. 49) Work is being done to follow up that recommendation.' A recent ...
The sharpbenders: Achieving a sustained improvement in performance
Long Range Planning, 1990
... largest companies had more triggers, perhaps due to problems associated with the identificati... more ... largest companies had more triggers, perhaps due to problems associated with the identification of the ... Of the nine general cases identified in Table 3, the major influences relate to ... Five differentsources are suggested by the sharpbenders project: r Quality of Staff and their Skill ...
Page 1. THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC ASYMMETRIES December 2006 Volume 3, Number 2 Articles Volbert Ale... more Page 1. THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC ASYMMETRIES December 2006 Volume 3, Number 2 Articles Volbert Alexander and Martin Mandler Maastricht-Type Integration, Uncertainty, and Macroeconomic Performance The European Experience 1 ...
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