This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the a... more This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier’s archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit:
We clarify the role of perceived repetition in hedonic adaptation, by demonstrating that enhancin... more We clarify the role of perceived repetition in hedonic adaptation, by demonstrating that enhancing perceived repetition intensifies consumers' reactions to the aspects they attend to. Four lab experiments show that increasing perceived repetition increases (vs. reduces) adaptation when consumers attend to the non-distinguishing (vs. distinguishing) aspects of their experiences.
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2013
Low numerical probabilities tend to be directionally ambiguous, meaning they can be interpreted e... more Low numerical probabilities tend to be directionally ambiguous, meaning they can be interpreted either positively, suggesting the occurrence of the target event, or negatively, suggesting its non-occurrence. High numerical probabilities, however, are typically interpreted positively. We argue that the greater directional ambiguity of low numerical probabilities may make them more susceptible than high probabilities to contextual influences. Results from five experiments supported this premise, with perceived base rate affecting the interpretation of an event's numerical posterior probability more when it was low than high. The effect is consistent with a confirmatory hypothesis testing process, with the relevant perceived base rate suggesting the directional hypothesis which people then test in a confirmatory manner.
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2011
People frequently need to predict the preferences of others. Such intuitive predictions often sho... more People frequently need to predict the preferences of others. Such intuitive predictions often show social projection, in which one's own preference for an option increases its perceived popularity among others. We use support theory to model social projection in the prediction of preferences, and in particular interactions between social projection and description-dependence. Preferred options are predicted to have consistently high salience, and therefore should be less susceptible to description variations, such as unpacking, which normally affect option salience. This preference salience premise implies an interaction between social projection and option description, with reduced unpacking effects for hypotheses including preferred options, or equivalently, with reduced social projection when less-liked alternatives are unpacked. Support theory models accommodating different preference-dependent unpacking effects are tested. These models distinguish two substantial contributors to social projection effects: (a) greater evidence recruited for preferred options and (b) greater discounting of packed less-preferred options.
Probability judgment is description-dependent; different descriptions of the same event can elici... more Probability judgment is description-dependent; different descriptions of the same event can elicit different judged probabilities. We propose that the temporal proximity of an event moderates the degree of description dependence in probability judgment. According to construal level theory, near future events are represented more concretely than distant future events. These more concrete representations are predicted to be more stable, and therefore less susceptible to description dependence effects. Consistent with this prediction, changing an event's description by unpacking it into constituent parts influenced its judged probability more when the event took place in the distant rather than the near future. Specifically, greater description dependence was found for distant events regardless of whether the unpacking manipulation increased (Experiment 1) or decreased (Experiment 2) judged probability.
A Reference-Dependent Utility Model of Attraction and Compromise Effects_Study 1
Data set for reference dependence of context effects (Study 1). Participants were told to imagine... more Data set for reference dependence of context effects (Study 1). Participants were told to imagine that they would be making product choices across several categories. The order in which they saw the four product categories was randomized. For purposes of illustration, we use the lawn mower category here. Participants were told that they were looking to buy a lawn mower, and were about to choose between two (or among three) options. They were also told that these options differed mainly on the two attributes presented and were otherwise similar on other relevant attributes. Participants were then asked to choose one of the lawn mowers. They repeated the choice task for the remaining three product categories. They then indicated their gender and age, followed by whether (a) they responded randomly at any point during the study, and (b) they read the instructions. The data was gathered from Amazon MTurkers in August 2019.
We find that processing disfluency (vs. fluency) increases attractiveness by reducing subjective ... more We find that processing disfluency (vs. fluency) increases attractiveness by reducing subjective probability. The proposed effect fails to arise when the true source of disfluency is revealed (Study 1), and the directional ambiguity in the interpretation of numerical probabilities is reduced either naturally (Study 2) or experimentally (Study 3).
Low numerical probabilities tend to be directionally ambiguous, meaning they can be interpreted e... more Low numerical probabilities tend to be directionally ambiguous, meaning they can be interpreted either positively, suggesting the occurrence of the target event, or negatively, suggesting its non-occurrence. High numerical probabilities, however, are typically interpreted positively. We argue that the greater directional ambiguity of low numerical probabilities may make them more susceptible than high probabilities to contextual influences. Results from five experiments supported this premise, with perceived base rate affecting the interpretation of an event's numerical posterior probability more when it was low than high. The effect is consistent with a confirmatory hypothesis testing process, with the relevant perceived base rate suggesting the directional hypothesis which people then test in a confirmatory manner.
Best of Both Worlds? Consumer Inferences About the Benefits of Hybrid Products
... with the product itself, making it rather difficult to categorize it to an existing product c... more ... with the product itself, making it rather difficult to categorize it to an existing product category. In situations like these, consumers can make inferences about the benefits of new-to-the-worldproducts via analogical reasoning (Figure 2-1). An analogous host category is often ...
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2012
Losses loom larger than gains. The typical interpretation of loss aversion involves a subjective ... more Losses loom larger than gains. The typical interpretation of loss aversion involves a subjective valuebased asymmetry between gains and losses, with individuals expecting losses to be more painful than gains of equal size to be pleasurable. This paper reveals a novel, subjective probability-based asymmetry between gains and losses that may contribute to loss aversion in risky choice. Results from five experiments suggest that losses may loom not only larger, but also more likely than gains. The propensity of losses to attract attention and to be subsequently imagined appears to underlie the proposed asymmetry. The effect translates into changes in predicted behavior, with subjective probability mediating the impact of imagination on the predicted likelihood to accept to play an equal-probability gamble. The implications of our findings for loss aversion, the negativity bias, and the imagination literature are discussed.
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2013
ABSTRACT Low numerical probabilities tend to be directionally ambiguous, meaning they can be inte... more ABSTRACT Low numerical probabilities tend to be directionally ambiguous, meaning they can be interpreted either positively, suggesting the occurrence of the target event, or negatively, suggesting its non-occurrence. High numerical probabilities, however, are typically interpreted positively. We argue that the greater directional ambiguity of low numerical probabilities may make them more susceptible than high probabilities to contextual influences. Results from five experiments supported this premise, with perceived base rate affecting the interpretation of an event’s numerical posterior probability more when it was low than high. The effect is consistent with a confirmatory hypothesis testing process, with the relevant perceived base rate suggesting the directional hypothesis which people then test in a confirmatory manner.
Probability judgment is description-dependent; different descriptions of the same event can elici... more Probability judgment is description-dependent; different descriptions of the same event can elicit different judged probabilities. We propose that the temporal proximity of an event moderates the degree of description dependence in probability judgment. According to construal level theory, near future events are represented more concretely than distant future events. These more concrete representations are predicted to be more stable, and therefore less susceptible to description dependence effects. Consistent with this prediction, changing an event's description by unpacking it into constituent parts influenced its judged probability more when the event took place in the distant rather than the near future. Specifically, greater description dependence was found for distant events regardless of whether the unpacking manipulation increased (Experiment 1) or decreased (Experiment 2) judged probability.
Loss aversion states that "losses loom larger than gains." We consider two types of loss aversion... more Loss aversion states that "losses loom larger than gains." We consider two types of loss aversion defined by two interpretations of loss. A loss can be defined (1) in terms of valence or (2) in terms of possession. Correspondingly, valence loss aversion (VLA) entails greater sensitivity to negative (vs. positive) changes, and possession loss aversion (PLA) entails greater sensitivity to items leaving (vs. entering) one's possession. Both types of loss aversion imply an endowment effect for attractive items, but PLA implies a reversal of the endowment effect for unattractive items. Experimental results show endowment effect reversals consistent with PLA.
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Papers by Baler Bilgin