Conference Presentations by Anastasios Sotirchos
"Environmental Economics and Investment Assessment III "WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, WIT Press, UK, 2010., 2010
This paper examines the assessment and funding rate estimation process for the implementation of ... more This paper examines the assessment and funding rate estimation process for the implementation of wastewater treatment (WT) projects through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs). The study, having as strong theoretical foundation the Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) methodology and the quantitative Value for Money (VfM) assessment process, develops a new algorithmic type model, in order to present a process for the funding evaluation of PPP type WT project's initial investment. The model applies in those projects that are considered to be financed by both public and private sectors and further could be potentially co-financed by the European community. The model is tested in a WT project case study and calculates the upper and lower limits of the public and private sectors' funding rates in the initial investment. Due to the fact that a PPP is not a solution option but may be the procurement choice for a preferred solution option, the new model can be a useful tool to project examiners during the feasibility stage of WT projects, in order to evaluate alternative funding scenarios and propose the most suitable in each case option to decision-makers.
"Ecosystems and Sustainable Development VIII "WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, WIT Press, UK, 2011., 2011
This paper examines the initial budget estimation process for the implementation of waste treatme... more This paper examines the initial budget estimation process for the implementation of waste treatment projects through Public-Private Partnership (PPPs) in Greece. The study, having as strong theoretical foundation the project's financial analysis that is included in the cost benefit analysis methodology, evaluates the financial sustainability of a waste management project. Initially, the budget estimation process that is currently used under the conventional procurement of public projects in Greece is followed and the results demonstrate that the specific process, where the investor's Profit Rate (PR) takes specific values, cannot be used in the case of a PPP. Furthermore, a new formula is developed, which calculates the minimum value of the private sector's PR, in order to determine the existence of positive cash flows during the operational phase of the project and to ensure the partnership's financial sustainability. The new formula can be a useful tool to the public decision-makers in Greece, because it helps them to evaluate the financial sustainability of the waste treatment projects that follow PPP contracts, during the conceptual phase.
3rd International Symposium on Green Chemistry for Environment, Health and Development, Skiathos Island, Greece, 3-5/10/2012, 2012
Sustainable development encompasses environmental, economic and social aspects, which should be c... more Sustainable development encompasses environmental, economic and social aspects, which should be considered in decision-making for environmental projects. This paper introduces a sustainable decision-making tool that can be used in cases where two different projects are compared and the Economic Net Present Value (ENPV) and Economic Rate of Return (ERR) methods provide contradictory results. A new process is presented, which combines the economic analysis that includes the ENPV and ERR criteria with the quantitative risk analysis that is used for handling the uncertainty included in project evaluation through the Monte Carlo simulation technique. Specifically, the Total Project's Uncertainty Index (TPUI) is used for rating the overall uncertainty included in each project. The process developed here can be a useful tool to decision-makers, as it helps them to compare alternative projects and to select the most sustainable.
Proceedings of the Third International Conference of Environmental Management, Engineering, Planning and Economics (CEMEPE III), Skiathos Island, Greece, June 19-24, 2011 , 2011
Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is one of the mostly used methods for the evaluation of the waste inc... more Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is one of the mostly used methods for the evaluation of the waste incineration (WI) projects, by taking into account the social and environmental externalities. Generally, a WI project has a number of options on the basis of demand opportunities and technical solutions, such as the firing system and boilers, the water-steam cycle and the flue gas cleaning system. The evaluation process of these options that is included in the CBA consists of calculating the expected value of the options' evaluation indicators, namely the Net Present Value (NPV) and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Herein, a new process is presented, which includes the development of a single Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) model, in order to implement the quantitative risk analysis of the WI options and to evaluate them. An illustrative case study is used, where the options of a WI project are evaluated, while the results as well as useful conclusions are discussed. The proposed process can be a useful tool to the investment analysts, as it helps them to evaluate the WI options, by taking into consideration the incurred risks.
2nd International Conference on Applications of Mathematics and Informatics in Military Sciences (AMIMS), Athens, 11-12/04/2013. , 2013
The major objective of this paper is to analyze the most widely used techniques for risk assessme... more The major objective of this paper is to analyze the most widely used techniques for risk assessment and to discuss their applicability as decision support tools for military operations. These are the qualitative and the quantitative risk analyses, which are commonly used for handling uncertainty in project management. Initially , the main processes for the implementation of each method are presented highlighting the most critical issues that should be taken into account by project analysts. Further, it is discussed how these processes can be used by military operations analysts as decision support tools during the planning phase of a military operation. In particular, the main steps that should be followed by operations analysts are analyzed and the limitations as well as the benefits of the specific techniques are also discussed. Finally, in order to demonstrate that these methods can be effectively applied as decision support tools to military operations, the paper presents two illustrative examples with the application of the qualitative and quantitative risk analysis..
Papers by Anastasios Sotirchos
Waste Management, 2013
This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the a... more This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/authorsrights a b s t r a c t This paper surveys decision support models that are commonly used in the solid waste management area. Most models are mainly developed within three decision support frameworks, which are the life-cycle assessment, the cost–benefit analysis and the multi-criteria decision-making. These frameworks are reviewed and their strengths and weaknesses as well as their critical issues are analyzed, while their possible combinations and extensions are also discussed. Furthermore, the paper presents how cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches can be used for the purpose of modeling and analyzing decision-making in situations with multiple stakeholders. Specifically, since a waste management model is sustainable when considering not only environmental and economic but also social aspects, the waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework in which future models can be developed.
«Waste Management», 2012
This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the a... more This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/copyright a b s t r a c t This paper examines the evaluation of a waste management project's alternatives through a quantitative risk analysis. Cost benefit analysis is a widely used method, in which the investments are mainly assessed through the calculation of their evaluation indicators, namely benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, as well as the quantification of their financial, technical, environmental and social risks. Herein, a novel approach in the form of risk-based multi-criteria assessment (RBMCA) is introduced, which can be used by decision makers, in order to select the optimum alternative of a waste management project. Specifically, decision makers use multiple criteria, which are based on the cumulative probability distribution functions of the alternatives' B/C ratios. The RBMCA system is used for the evaluation of a waste incineration project's alternatives, where the correlation between the criteria weight values and the decision makers' risk preferences is analyzed and useful conclusions are discussed.
PLoS ONE, 2012
The fair division of a surplus is one of the most widely examined problems. This paper focuses on... more The fair division of a surplus is one of the most widely examined problems. This paper focuses on bargaining problems with fixed disagreement payoffs where risk-neutral agents have reached an agreement that is the Nash-bargaining solution (NBS). We consider a stochastic environment, in which the overall return consists of multiple pies with uncertain sizes and we examine how these pies can be allocated with fairness among agents. Specifically, fairness is based on the Aristotle's maxim: ''equals should be treated equally and unequals unequally, in proportion to the relevant inequality''. In this context, fairness is achieved when all the individual stochastic surplus shares which are allocated to agents are distributed in proportion to the NBS. We introduce a novel algorithm, which can be used to compute the ratio of each pie that should be allocated to each agent, in order to ensure fairness within a symmetric or asymmetric NBS.
International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 2012
International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 2012
Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, Special Issue: Engineering Optimisation and Environmental Management, 2012
One of the most widely used methods for investment assessment is the internal rate of return (IRR... more One of the most widely used methods for investment assessment is the internal rate of return (IRR) that
is based on the discounted cash flow analysis. Furthermore, the quantitative risk analysis technique is
commonly used during the project’s initial stage, simply by weighting the financial performance with the
incurred risks. Herein, we introduce a decision support algorithm for environmental project evaluation and
we focus on its application to solid waste management projects. The proposed algorithm includes some
basic steps that should be followed by decision-makers, in order to evaluate a project’s options. Specifically,
different probability distributions are assigned to all variables that influence the options’ IRRs and Monte
Carlo simulation is enforced to compute their expected IRR values. The algorithm presented here can be a
useful tool to risk-neutral decision-makers, as it helps them to evaluate an environmental project’s options
and to select the one with the greatest expected profits.
This paper focuses on the decentralized systems that use the revenue-sharing and cost-sharing con... more This paper focuses on the decentralized systems that use the revenue-sharing and cost-sharing contracts as coordination mechanisms. We consider a grand-coalition N with finite players, who agree to cooperate by undertaking part of the system's cost individually, while the remaining costs C and revenues R are shared properly, in order to allocate the system's profits and risks equally among them. We use cooperative game theory, in order to examine the possible coalitions of players and to estimate the finite set of solutions, with which the system's profits and risks are allocated equally among all players. Specifically, each system's solution consists of a pair of vectors r, c Є R N Keywordscoalitions of players, cooperative game theory, profit and risk allocation, revenue-cost-sharing , with which all players' profits are normally distributed with equal mean values and variances. Moreover, we introduce a code that can be used for the computation of the precise number of possible solutions.
Abstract—This paper examines the feasibility stage of Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) and spec... more Abstract—This paper examines the feasibility stage of Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) and specifically the evaluation of the public sector's contribution in the project's funding scheme. We focus on those PPP projects, where the initial investment is funded by both public and private parts and revenues are shared between the two. Generally, a basic step of a PPP project appraisal is the risk analysis process, where the probability that the partners' evaluation indicators will take positive values is calculated. Herein, a risk based ...
International Journal of Mathematical Models and Methods in Applied Sciences, 2012
— In this paper we focus on the coordination of multi-agents through a revenue-cost-sharing mecha... more — In this paper we focus on the coordination of multi-agents through a revenue-cost-sharing mechanism. We consider a grand-coalition consisting of finite agents, who undertake part of the costs individually, while the remaining costs C and the total revenues R are shared between them with a revenue-cost-sharing contract. We introduce a novel approach in the form of a cooperative game for a finite set of agents N and we estimate the finite set of possible solutions. Specifically, each of these solutions can be used for the coordination of the multi-agents, as it allocates the grand-coalition's profits and risks equally among them. A computation algorithm is developed and illustrated in a numerical example for the coordination of a grand-coalition with nine individual agents.
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Conference Presentations by Anastasios Sotirchos
Papers by Anastasios Sotirchos
is based on the discounted cash flow analysis. Furthermore, the quantitative risk analysis technique is
commonly used during the project’s initial stage, simply by weighting the financial performance with the
incurred risks. Herein, we introduce a decision support algorithm for environmental project evaluation and
we focus on its application to solid waste management projects. The proposed algorithm includes some
basic steps that should be followed by decision-makers, in order to evaluate a project’s options. Specifically,
different probability distributions are assigned to all variables that influence the options’ IRRs and Monte
Carlo simulation is enforced to compute their expected IRR values. The algorithm presented here can be a
useful tool to risk-neutral decision-makers, as it helps them to evaluate an environmental project’s options
and to select the one with the greatest expected profits.