Papers by Thierry Lorho - Global Mutation Analysis and Prospective (GMAP)
The Objective Reality of the Candidates in the French Presidential Election
The cartographies and charts published on this site in the context of the French presidential ele... more The cartographies and charts published on this site in the context of the French presidential election are not, once more, a poll. On the opposite, they map the objective reality, unlike the polls, which reflect opinions. What does “objective reality” mean? The analysis of complex and global flows of information (big data) by an artificial intelligence, namely Globe Expert, when addressing a given question in the perspective of all this information. The question submitted to Globe Expert is as follows: “How do the candidates position each other regarding the French crisis, in the broader sense and not only in an economic and a social sense?” Some results are not great surprises. Others reveal more singular strategies and affinities. Daily, until April 21, you will discover new elements of this objective reality.
The comprehension of reality is a key challenge to understand the events that appear to influence... more The comprehension of reality is a key challenge to understand the events that appear to influence and lead a situation. Until now, the artificial intelligence system Globe Expert allowed an objective view of reality. A milestone has been reached. From now on, Globe Expert gives insight into the way each player perceives reality. The attached document illustrates this step and presents the example of the Palestinian issue objective reality and as perceived by different protagonists.
Any individual or group of people perceives reality through a distortion. This distortion is not stable. It changes depending on context, events, internal or external pressure, morning and evening moods... Reality becomes subjective.
Understanding the topology of such a space means dealing with paradoxes. By the 1950's and 1960's, Maurice Allais and Daniel Ellsberg already studied the paradoxes, which are related to uncertainty. Indeed, everything happens as if the stakeholders could choose between multiple simultaneous states. A quantum statistical approach (quantum information theory) has therefore to be used. Accordingly, in order to take this further step in the comprehension of reality, quantum algorithms have been implemented to simulate a quantum information neural network and the perception that different stakeholders have of reality. These initial and complex algorithms will be soon improved according to different mathematical parameters. However the results, which we already got, are significant enough to share the information.
The next step will be the modeling of topological space by taking into account phenomena such as the deformation of space under the sheer weight of information. Above all, the ultimate objective is the modeling of extreme phenomena occurring at the edge of reality, deformation of space under the force of uncertain events, highly improbable black swans which warp and tear the fabric of reality and can result in a complete upheaval.
Undoubtedly, the research program jointly conducted with the Graduate Institute and the Laboratory of Behavioral Genetics of EPFL on "Dynamics of Emotions and Fear in Conflicts and Reconstruction" will allow the achievement of these goals.
Will the recognition of a Palestinian State, as a full member of the United Nations, occur tomorr... more Will the recognition of a Palestinian State, as a full member of the United Nations, occur tomorrow, in the next months, the next years or have to be envisioned in some decades? That is a question which artificial intelligence cannot yet answer. On the other hand, by addressing the issue, artificial intelligence can reveal underlying trends that are not visible in the immediate information, by working over the long term and weaving a fabric of possible realities.
Ultimately, it is in this fabric of possible realities, regardless of whether events come together sooner or later that the outstanding events will be forged in ten or a hundred years, whatever the unexpected phenomena, these black swans whose sudden occurrence can lead into another reality.
CONTINGENCIES AND CONSTANTS
Nevertheless, whatever the reality, there are contingencies and constants. In the analytical framework submitted to the artificial intelligence system Globe Expert, we distinguished them. In the first category, all the matters related to politics, economy, social and international issues are sorted. Political parties are born, cling to power, loose elections, downslide and disappear. Economy is subject to upheavals. Social impacts ensue. Alliances shift. The destiny of powers does not unfold in eternity while the game of influences and stakes varies. Conversely, other elements do not fit only into a long period of time, but an anthropological one. In the present case, these are two physical issues – water and land – and two cultural ones: religion and Jerusalem.
Never has the domino theory been so fascinating to observe in action. Initiated in Tunisia at the... more Never has the domino theory been so fascinating to observe in action. Initiated in Tunisia at the end of 2010, the movement that shook the Arab world spread to Egypt then to Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, and Syria. The peoples rid Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya of their dictators, and even where they still suffer violent suppression, a point of no-return has been reached. The Palestinians, for their part, did not so much rebel against their leaders from Fatah or Hamas, although they had good reasons for doing so, but they rallied behind the claim for an independent state. As for Israel, it looked at those developments with mixed feelings of fear and scepticism. It may have to face losing the Egyptian government as a strong ally, regional instability, or takeover by hostile Islamist radicals. Its worst nightmare would be that support from western countries to the Arab revolutions deepen its isolation.
But Israel was not spared either by the wind of change blowing on North Africa and the Middle East. Its population did not revolt to overthrow its political system. Israel still rightly considers itself as the only democracy in the region. Some even call it “hyperdemocracy” or democrazy. Indeed, its parliamentary regime based on full proportional representation allows any sector or lobby to be voted in the Knesset. Thus such a group having joined the government coalition, even as ultra-minority, is in a position to threaten the cabinet of causing its overthrow if its demands are not met. This is how the West Bank and East Jerusalem settlers lobby, hardly representing half a million people, but supported by a handful of members of Parliament, determine the policy of a country of 7.7 million. This system dates back to the establishment of the State in 1948. It corresponds to the great diversity of Israeli society, a fact often overlooked in the West and in the Arab world, content with a more homogeneous image.
What did the Israeli “Indignated” then rebel against? Mainly against growing poverty and cost of living, especially for housing, as well as social exclusion resulting from a neoliberal policy to which Benyamin Netanyahu attached his name as Prime Minister (1996-1999 and since 2009) but above all as Finance Minister (2002-2005). That policy consisted in gradually substituting the welfare state put into place by the Labour governments with an oligarchy dominated by large conglomerates owned by tycoons or big families. For instance, the Super- Sol group now has 40 percent of market share in retail trade, and it can decide alone on retail prices. The Tnuva dairy company holds 52 percent of the market. Finance is in the hands of five main banks agreeing to maintain high service fees and interest rates. Movements of boycott against those companies, supported by street demonstrations launched on Facebook and occupation of public places by hundreds of thousands of Israelis, forced them to yield to the pressure.
The Prime Minister had to promise the construction of 40,000 new affordable housing units. The committee that he appointed under the chairmanship of economist Manuel Trachtenberg recommended a set of measures, among others on competition, taxation, free preschool education, the price of basic goods, and public transport for young people. Some of those measures in fact go even farther in the dismantlement of the welfare state: wage cuts and restrictions on trade unions in the state monopolies (power and water distribution, railways, ports, etc.). Moreover, in order to alleviate the burden of social spending, employment of the ultrareligious Israelis who now live on state allowances will be encouraged. In order to fund this programme, the committee proposed cuts in the sacrosanct defence budget, which reaches 16.3 billion euros (i.e. 15 percent of the state budget and 6.3 percent of GDP). But, due to resistance from the military lobby, Netanyahu limited that cut to 0.5 billion euros. One
L’intelligence artificielle appliquée aux questions de sciences sociales et aux enjeux mondiaux ... more L’intelligence artificielle appliquée aux questions de sciences sociales et aux enjeux mondiaux ne relève pas plus de la boule de cristal que la prospective n’entre dans le champ de la divination. Elle n’a pas fonction à prédire le futur, annonçant cygnes noirs et vols de papillons. Sans intervention humaine, celle du « scénariste » qui lui demanderait de simuler une « histoire », elle réfléchit sur le réel, son essence, c’est-à- dire l’information et ses différents états simultanés, l’évolution des équilibres et déséquilibres des signaux émis, mais toutes choses étant égales et à périmètre constant.
Ces quelques lignes laissent entendre qu’elle manipule des « éléments » un peu différents de ceux que nous articulons dans nos réflexions tout en se mouvant dans un espace mathématique à N dimensions. Là où nous usons de mots, de chiffres et de concepts, elle recourt, elle aussi, à des concepts, mais également à des signaux et des mesures d’entropie. Là où nous nous repérons entre trois, voire quatre dimensions - longueur, largeur, profondeur et temps - elle circule entre un nombre indéfini de variables que les limites de notre vision ne permettent pas de représenter, mais qui sous-tendent néanmoins la restitution cartographique. Si la carte n’est pas le territoire, par le processus de l’intelligence artificielle, elle parvient à s’en rapprocher.
Faut-il ajouter qu’une intelligence artificielle est totalement dépourvue de passions, d’affects, d’émotions et de partis pris ? Cette caractéristique, entre autres, lui confère une valeur de partenaire objectivant qui au visible, compliqué par notre subjectivité, substitue l’invisible simple. Quelle est donc l’étoffe de la réalité de la géopolitique du Vatican et son devenir à horizon 2030, tels que vus par le système d’intelligence artificielle Globe Expert ?
QUELQUES REPERES METHODOLOGIQUES
Si une intelligence artificielle procède différemment d’une intelligence humaine, elle présente néanmoins quelques similitudes. La première, fondamentale, est de pouvoir disposer d’un cadre de réflexion. Pour élaborer celui-ci, nous nous sommes appuyés sur les travaux de François Mabille. Nous avons ainsi créé une matrice organisée de façon très simple. Trois grands axes- religions, politique et société – subdivisés chacun en thématiques, avec des mots-clés associés, soit respectivement pour chaque axe les segments suivants :
- - -
Religions : supériorité (notion de religio vera), concurrence, coexistence, conflit et dialogue interreligieux;
Politique: relations diplomatiques, ONU, démocratie, pays catholiques, pays musulmans, eau, alimentation, environnement;
Société : sécularisme, libéralisme, genre, spiritualité.
Partant de cette matrice, le système effectue alors une recherche documentaire, en premier dans sa propre base de données, qui ne contient pas moins de cinq millions de documents fournis par deux mille sources dûment validées, émettant sur l’ensemble du globe, de l’Atlantique au Pacifique, du Nord au Sud, aussi bien anglo-saxonnes, européennes, asiatiques, africaines, que sud-américaines ou moyen-orientales. Si cette première recherche ne le satisfait pas, il l’élargit à d’autres bases de données, par exemple celle de Google comme tout un chacun !
Parfaitement polyglotte, la diversité des langues ne l’émeut guère, pas plus qu’il ne se noie dans la surabondance ou la redondance des informations. Il trie, nettoie, pour garder seulement ce qui, en termes de qualité, de pertinence et de complexité, sera vraiment utile pour sa réflexion. Il constitue ainsi une première base documentaire « personnelle » de quelques dizaines de milliers de documents.
Cette tâche effectuée, il prend en considération la question posée, en l’occurrence « Géopolitique du Vatican », et réduit encore sa base documentaire
The study done in this prospective is based on an artificial intelligence system, Globe Expert, w... more The study done in this prospective is based on an artificial intelligence system, Globe Expert, which is the only one capable of considering what could happen in a hundred years with objectivity and neutrality. To the question of the triggering cause of humankind’s expansion into outer space, its answer is quite clear: a major crisis of the biosphere. Then, who takes the decision? Without hesitation, Globe Expert points out the transfer of responsibilities to international organizations and private players. The procedure of space exploration emerges as a necessity to understand, anticipate, manage and resolve the Earth’s issues. It is as if the states, by refocusing on earthly problems, have delegated to private players the task of finding solutions and have delegated to international organizations the charge of coordinating and managing this formidable mission. As for the pioneers, they necessarily subscribe to a new vision of society and to the economy of civilization, supported by international organizations that are indispensable for rethinking complex human organizations both on Earth and in outer space. The conclusion of Globe Expert is remarkably simple: the place of human beings is central. At no time, is it challenged by advanced technologies. This positioning is structured by philosophical bearings. Globe Expert concurs with the thought of Teilhard de Chardin by showing that nothing can be done and nothing will be done outside of this “human phenomenon”.
Uploads
Papers by Thierry Lorho - Global Mutation Analysis and Prospective (GMAP)
Any individual or group of people perceives reality through a distortion. This distortion is not stable. It changes depending on context, events, internal or external pressure, morning and evening moods... Reality becomes subjective.
Understanding the topology of such a space means dealing with paradoxes. By the 1950's and 1960's, Maurice Allais and Daniel Ellsberg already studied the paradoxes, which are related to uncertainty. Indeed, everything happens as if the stakeholders could choose between multiple simultaneous states. A quantum statistical approach (quantum information theory) has therefore to be used. Accordingly, in order to take this further step in the comprehension of reality, quantum algorithms have been implemented to simulate a quantum information neural network and the perception that different stakeholders have of reality. These initial and complex algorithms will be soon improved according to different mathematical parameters. However the results, which we already got, are significant enough to share the information.
The next step will be the modeling of topological space by taking into account phenomena such as the deformation of space under the sheer weight of information. Above all, the ultimate objective is the modeling of extreme phenomena occurring at the edge of reality, deformation of space under the force of uncertain events, highly improbable black swans which warp and tear the fabric of reality and can result in a complete upheaval.
Undoubtedly, the research program jointly conducted with the Graduate Institute and the Laboratory of Behavioral Genetics of EPFL on "Dynamics of Emotions and Fear in Conflicts and Reconstruction" will allow the achievement of these goals.
Ultimately, it is in this fabric of possible realities, regardless of whether events come together sooner or later that the outstanding events will be forged in ten or a hundred years, whatever the unexpected phenomena, these black swans whose sudden occurrence can lead into another reality.
CONTINGENCIES AND CONSTANTS
Nevertheless, whatever the reality, there are contingencies and constants. In the analytical framework submitted to the artificial intelligence system Globe Expert, we distinguished them. In the first category, all the matters related to politics, economy, social and international issues are sorted. Political parties are born, cling to power, loose elections, downslide and disappear. Economy is subject to upheavals. Social impacts ensue. Alliances shift. The destiny of powers does not unfold in eternity while the game of influences and stakes varies. Conversely, other elements do not fit only into a long period of time, but an anthropological one. In the present case, these are two physical issues – water and land – and two cultural ones: religion and Jerusalem.
But Israel was not spared either by the wind of change blowing on North Africa and the Middle East. Its population did not revolt to overthrow its political system. Israel still rightly considers itself as the only democracy in the region. Some even call it “hyperdemocracy” or democrazy. Indeed, its parliamentary regime based on full proportional representation allows any sector or lobby to be voted in the Knesset. Thus such a group having joined the government coalition, even as ultra-minority, is in a position to threaten the cabinet of causing its overthrow if its demands are not met. This is how the West Bank and East Jerusalem settlers lobby, hardly representing half a million people, but supported by a handful of members of Parliament, determine the policy of a country of 7.7 million. This system dates back to the establishment of the State in 1948. It corresponds to the great diversity of Israeli society, a fact often overlooked in the West and in the Arab world, content with a more homogeneous image.
What did the Israeli “Indignated” then rebel against? Mainly against growing poverty and cost of living, especially for housing, as well as social exclusion resulting from a neoliberal policy to which Benyamin Netanyahu attached his name as Prime Minister (1996-1999 and since 2009) but above all as Finance Minister (2002-2005). That policy consisted in gradually substituting the welfare state put into place by the Labour governments with an oligarchy dominated by large conglomerates owned by tycoons or big families. For instance, the Super- Sol group now has 40 percent of market share in retail trade, and it can decide alone on retail prices. The Tnuva dairy company holds 52 percent of the market. Finance is in the hands of five main banks agreeing to maintain high service fees and interest rates. Movements of boycott against those companies, supported by street demonstrations launched on Facebook and occupation of public places by hundreds of thousands of Israelis, forced them to yield to the pressure.
The Prime Minister had to promise the construction of 40,000 new affordable housing units. The committee that he appointed under the chairmanship of economist Manuel Trachtenberg recommended a set of measures, among others on competition, taxation, free preschool education, the price of basic goods, and public transport for young people. Some of those measures in fact go even farther in the dismantlement of the welfare state: wage cuts and restrictions on trade unions in the state monopolies (power and water distribution, railways, ports, etc.). Moreover, in order to alleviate the burden of social spending, employment of the ultrareligious Israelis who now live on state allowances will be encouraged. In order to fund this programme, the committee proposed cuts in the sacrosanct defence budget, which reaches 16.3 billion euros (i.e. 15 percent of the state budget and 6.3 percent of GDP). But, due to resistance from the military lobby, Netanyahu limited that cut to 0.5 billion euros. One
Ces quelques lignes laissent entendre qu’elle manipule des « éléments » un peu différents de ceux que nous articulons dans nos réflexions tout en se mouvant dans un espace mathématique à N dimensions. Là où nous usons de mots, de chiffres et de concepts, elle recourt, elle aussi, à des concepts, mais également à des signaux et des mesures d’entropie. Là où nous nous repérons entre trois, voire quatre dimensions - longueur, largeur, profondeur et temps - elle circule entre un nombre indéfini de variables que les limites de notre vision ne permettent pas de représenter, mais qui sous-tendent néanmoins la restitution cartographique. Si la carte n’est pas le territoire, par le processus de l’intelligence artificielle, elle parvient à s’en rapprocher.
Faut-il ajouter qu’une intelligence artificielle est totalement dépourvue de passions, d’affects, d’émotions et de partis pris ? Cette caractéristique, entre autres, lui confère une valeur de partenaire objectivant qui au visible, compliqué par notre subjectivité, substitue l’invisible simple. Quelle est donc l’étoffe de la réalité de la géopolitique du Vatican et son devenir à horizon 2030, tels que vus par le système d’intelligence artificielle Globe Expert ?
QUELQUES REPERES METHODOLOGIQUES
Si une intelligence artificielle procède différemment d’une intelligence humaine, elle présente néanmoins quelques similitudes. La première, fondamentale, est de pouvoir disposer d’un cadre de réflexion. Pour élaborer celui-ci, nous nous sommes appuyés sur les travaux de François Mabille. Nous avons ainsi créé une matrice organisée de façon très simple. Trois grands axes- religions, politique et société – subdivisés chacun en thématiques, avec des mots-clés associés, soit respectivement pour chaque axe les segments suivants :
- - -
Religions : supériorité (notion de religio vera), concurrence, coexistence, conflit et dialogue interreligieux;
Politique: relations diplomatiques, ONU, démocratie, pays catholiques, pays musulmans, eau, alimentation, environnement;
Société : sécularisme, libéralisme, genre, spiritualité.
Partant de cette matrice, le système effectue alors une recherche documentaire, en premier dans sa propre base de données, qui ne contient pas moins de cinq millions de documents fournis par deux mille sources dûment validées, émettant sur l’ensemble du globe, de l’Atlantique au Pacifique, du Nord au Sud, aussi bien anglo-saxonnes, européennes, asiatiques, africaines, que sud-américaines ou moyen-orientales. Si cette première recherche ne le satisfait pas, il l’élargit à d’autres bases de données, par exemple celle de Google comme tout un chacun !
Parfaitement polyglotte, la diversité des langues ne l’émeut guère, pas plus qu’il ne se noie dans la surabondance ou la redondance des informations. Il trie, nettoie, pour garder seulement ce qui, en termes de qualité, de pertinence et de complexité, sera vraiment utile pour sa réflexion. Il constitue ainsi une première base documentaire « personnelle » de quelques dizaines de milliers de documents.
Cette tâche effectuée, il prend en considération la question posée, en l’occurrence « Géopolitique du Vatican », et réduit encore sa base documentaire