Mesut Demircan

Institute of Meteorology, Turkish State Meteorological Service, Meteorological Expert ( Climate Scientist, PhD)

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I'm a researcher on climate, climate monitoring, climate indeces, long term forecasting, climate modeling, tailored climate products, climate change adaptation action plans (national, local, and sectoral), early warning systems, branches of meteorology, Precitiable Water Vapur of GNSS, Isotopic contents of Precipitation, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), and GIS Modeling.
Address: Turkey

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Papers by Mesut Demircan

Increasing Resolution of Temperature Maps by Using Geographic Information Systems (Gis) and Topography Information

by Ph.D.ilker ALAN and Mesut Demircan

A GIS-based method for deriving high-resolution (in space) maps of mean temperature (Base Period;... more A GIS-based method for deriving high-resolution (in space) maps of mean temperature (Base Period; 1971-2000) is developed for Turkey. Heights (one of terrain variables) and lapse rate value (changing rate of temperature with height) are used as predictors of temperatures on 1km resolution of grid points, using a lapse rate-based approach. In this study, mean annual temperature values measured at 228 meteorological stations of Turkish State Meteorological Service over Turkey are used for visualization and interpolation to reveal spatial distribution of mean annual temperature values. Mean annual temperatures have been obtained from period of 1971-2000 long term temperature data sets. Elevation data have been obtained from digital elevation models (DEM) with the help of GIS. There have been studied with temperature data of in and around Uludağ stations to determine value of lapse rate. Lapse rate have been found average 5°CKm-1 with regression coefficient (R2) 0.97. Temperature data f...

State of the Climate in 2018

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2019

Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2019 is a low-res... more

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İklim Değişikliğinin Malatya İlinde Kayısı Rekoltesi ve Coğrafi Dağılışına Etkileri

Journal of environmental and natural studies, Sep 5, 2022

İçinde bulunduğumuz yüzyılda, iklim değişikliğinin çevresel etkileri giderek yaygınlaşmakla berab... more İçinde bulunduğumuz yüzyılda, iklim değişikliğinin çevresel etkileri giderek yaygınlaşmakla beraber tarım ürünleri üzerindeki etkisi de önemli derecede hissedilmektedir. Bu nedenle iklim değişikliğinin ve jeomorfolojik yapının kayısı üzerindeki etkilerinin araştırıldığı bu çalışmada, dünya kayısı üretiminin en yoğun olarak yapıldığı Malatya ili seçilmiştir. Araştırmada, arazi gözlemleri, anket çalışması ile birtakım meteorolojik ve tarımsal verilerinden yararlanılmıştır. Fenolojik dönemin başlangıçlarını belirlemek için büyüme sezonu başlangıcını tayin eden 6 ardışık gün metodu kullanılmıştır. Sıcaklık ve don parametrelerinde görülen değişimler için Mann Kendall sıralı istatistik metodu ile doğrusal trend analizi yöntemlerinden yararlanılmıştır. Anket sonuçlarına göre özellikle 2000 yılından sonra verimde bir düşüş ve kayısıya zarar veren olaylarda bir artış olduğu görülmüştür. 1980-2020 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde yıllık sıcaklık ortalamalarında doğrusal trend analizine göre toplam 2,4 ℃ ve aynı dönemin ortalama sıcaklığına göre 1.3 ℃ 'lik bir artış olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte kayısı fenolojik safhasının başlamasında 20.2 günlük bir erkene kayma olduğu ortaya çıkarılmıştır. Öte yandan ilkbahar geç donlarının sıklık ve sürekliliklerinde bir artış olduğu ve bu hadiselerinin kayısı rekolteleri üzerindeki etkisinin önemli olduğu görülmüştür. Bunun haricinde iklimde meydana gelen ısınma, yüksek plato sahalarında susuz kayısı yetiştiriciliğinin ortaya çıkmasına imkân sağlamıştır. Sonuç olarak iklimde görülen değişimin, kayısı ürününün rekoltesi ve coğrafi dağılışı üzerinde görülen birtakım etkileri farklı açılardan ortaya konulmuştur.

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Climate Change's Impact on Turkish Seas’ Temperature and Aquaculture

Journal of environmental and natural studies, Sep 5, 2022

Climate is one of the most important elements that play a role in shaping the habitats, lifestyle... more Climate is one of the most important elements that play a role in shaping the habitats, lifestyles and physical characteristics of all living things in the Biosphere. Sea creatures are a part of the biosphere. Climate change is an important threat not only to our entire planet but also to oceans, seas and sea creatures. Turkey is surrounded by seas with different ecology and climate, namely the Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black Seas. Aquaculture and fishing are important sources of income in Turkey's seas and freshwaters. In addition, transportation, tourism, sports, etc. activities are socioeconomic activities carried out in its seas and waters. The increase in temperature in the seas of Turkey, especially in the Mediterranean, transforms the seas into tropical seas and invader species migrate to the region from tropical seas. In this study, the temperature increase in Turkish seas will be tried to be revealed. In the light of this change, possible changes in Turkish seas and the effects of climate change on seas and fishery products will be discussed. The data obtained from the measurements of the marine meteorology observation systems of the Turkish State Meteorological Service between the years 1970-2021 were analyzed for the Mediterranean, Aegean Sea, Marmara and Black Sea. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the seas surrounding Turkey have increased by about 0.4-1.4 °C in the last two decades, and it has been determined that the maximum increases are between about 2.3-3.5 °C in this period. According to Mann-Kendall Slope Analysis, the increases in DSSs are at a significant level α: 0.001. The highest increase in SSTs was detected in the Black Sea.

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İkli̇m, İkli̇m Deği̇şi̇kli̇ği̇ Ve Su İli̇şki̇si̇

İZOTOP ve YAĞIŞIN İZOTOP İÇERİĞİ

Yağişin Dağiliminda Şehi̇r Etki̇si̇: Uzaktan Algilama Ve Coğrafî Bi̇lgi̇ Si̇stemleri̇ Yöntemleri̇ İle Bi̇r Araştirma Ankara Örneği̇

State of the Climate in 2012 (SCI)

For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional ... more For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across glo...

Analysing of Rainfall Distribution in Ankara by Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems

In this study, it is intended to investigate factors that is affecting distribution of rainfall w... more In this study, it is intended to investigate factors that is affecting distribution of rainfall within the city and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools are used to make digital layer from products of satellite and Radar which are today&#39;s commonly used monitoring tools in Remote Sensing Method (RSM). Secondarily; it is intended to determine the relationship between surface rainfall measurements and remote sensing measurements which are obtained from satellite and radar. Finally; it is aimed to determine how urbanization is affected the distribution of rainfall over the city by examining these relationships on city base. It is proposed that results of this study can be primarily an input for city planners for correctly improving and planning of cities and also for reduction-prevention studies against to natural disasters which are related to the climate and especially depending on rainfall. Furthermore, it can be provided a base within the scope of coping studies which are made with the trilogy of prevention, mitigation and adaptation against to climate change that has become a problem in our century. For the study, precipitation events which are occurred in Ankara are examined on June 6 in the year 2010. For the date of June 6 in 2010, output of numerical prediction models, surface observations and Radar PPI data have been obtained and ECMWF model outputs, Radar PPI data and surface observations have been mapped in the GIS and analyzed. In the sample analysis it is observed that rainfall zones have moved according to the movement of the frontal system and they are not concentrated especially in the east parts of Ankara. In sampling dates, it is interesting to consider that the dust transportation along with frontal systems which are brings rainfall is observed in Atmospheric Dust Forecasting System maps. It is thought that the systems which are cause precipitation, topographical structure of the city and dust transportation from the Saharan Desert have been more effective in the formation of precipitation. GIS is important systems to prepare risk and mitigation maps for extreme events. Furthermore GIS can use to monitoring, preventive precaution and rescue planning in Disaster and Emergency Management Centre (DEMC) during a disaster situation. GIS can use different layer such as risk, actual situation, rod, hospital, etc. at same time. GIS can search and show possible best solution for DEMC studies. The issues, to use RADAR and Meteorological Models data in GIS is format of data that these data can not use directly in GIS systems. Due to this RADAR and models data can distribute to user standard format such as NetCDF or GIS readable format.

Jeomorfoloji̇k Hari̇ta Yapiminda Coğrafi̇ Bi̇lgi̇ Si̇stemi̇nde Bi̇r Uygulama

Sıcaklık Verilerindeki Kırılma Tarihleriyle İklim İndekslerinin İlişkisi RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HOMOGENEITY BREAKING POINTS IN TEMPERATURES AND CLIMATE INDEX

ArcGIS SICAKLIK Haritası oluşturma

İKLİM, İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ VE SU İLİŞKİSİ Mesut DEMİRCAN

Comparison of Water Vapour Estimates in Ankara, Turkey

Meteorological and climate studies are enrichments with new observation technic and technology as... more Meteorological and climate studies are enrichments with new observation technic and technology as well as secondary equipment&#39;s such as Global Positioning System GPS/ Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). To determine the accurate data in GNSS, it is need to know Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) which cause to tropospheric zenith delay. Vice versa IWV could be calculate from zenith travel time delays from GPS signals data with atmospheric pressure and temperature of GPS site. IWV which is produced from radiosonde data generally use as reference to determine the accuracy of GPS data. Nowadays GNSS meteorology is very familiar in Geomatics engineering. Perceptible Water Vapour (PWV) or Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) or Vertical Integrated Liquid (VIL) are different use in different meteorological systems and they are calculate from meteorological satellite data, radar data and radiosonde data. Spatial and temporal fluctuatings of water vapour content in the lower atmosphere cause time delays in signals propagating from space to targets on the ground. Different measurement methods exist to estimate water vapour. Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) provides continuous water vapour estimates. In this study, GNSS derived water vapour estimates are compared to radiosonde and radar observations. Statistical analysis of the differences between three data sets, GNSS, radar and radiosonde are summarized. In this study, it is intended to investigate relation between GNSS Ankara station&#39;s IWV, Ankara radiosonde station&#39;s IWV and Ankara Radar&#39;s VIL data. For this purpose, two term which are June 1 to 10 in 2010 and May 15 to 30 in 2015 are selected. These two term are consist of both dry and wet days. Data are obtained from NASA The Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS) for GNSS IWV data, NOAA Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) for radiosonde IWV data and TSMS for radar VIL data. Radar make observation with its beam. Beam path is not goes strait ahead in atmosphere. It is goes like as curve which is suit to the world&#39;s roundness and when it crush to water droplet it turns back to RADAR antenna. The result of this, firstly if the droplet size is too small or moisture in atmosphere is in a vapour form such as in clear air RADAR may not be observed it. Secondly, due to RADAR beam shape is like curve it can not measure all layer moisture. So RADAR VIL values could not representative troposphere layer total moisture. To free from errors radiosonde values must be use with measurement points coordinates. If RADAR&#39;s value or meteorological satellite values use for comparing GNSS IWV values it is need to make a private study for this purpose. Stations geographic position IWV data of GNSS and Radiosonde (00Z and 12Z) COMPARISON OF WATER VAPOUR ESTIMATES IN ANKARA, TURKEY IRD.P21 Daily mean IWV value of RADAR, GNSS and Radiosonde for June 1 to 10 Daily mean IWV value of RADAR, GNSS and Radiosonde for May 15 to 30 IWV data of GNSS and Radiosonde (00Z and 12Z) CONCLUSION Comparing results are relation of GNSS and Radiosonde is quite good esp. during to precipitation and also Radar values get to closer to GNSS and Radiosonde during to precipitation. During to precipitation sky is covered by clouds and the water vapour distribute generally uniform in atmosphere esp. in stratiform type weather conditions. Causes of errors should be as follows;  Satellite signal which come from satellite to directly GNSS station pass throughout troposphere and its effected by troposphere humidity as a result GNSS IWV representative of troposphere layer water vapour. GNSS observations are stationary observations.  When radiosonde balloon is released it start to cruise freely in atmosphere and it&#39;s cruising depends on to winds in atmosphere and it can be go far away up to 300km in any directions. During to cruise while getting height it goes far away and also it collects data on its way. So it is naturally collect different values from stationary station.

ArcGIS 10'DA SICAKLIK HARİTALARININ HAZIRLANMASI

İklim Değişikliğinin Haşhaş (Papaver somniferum L.) Üretim Alanlarına Etkisi

Iklim, dunyadaki yasamin surmesi ve yasam formlarinin yeryuzune dagilmasinda en onemli etmenlerde... more Iklim, dunyadaki yasamin surmesi ve yasam formlarinin yeryuzune dagilmasinda en onemli etmenlerdendir. Bu da yeryuzunde yetisen dogal ve kultur bitkilerinin dagilisini ve kalitesini etkilemektedir. Gunumuzde yapilan bircok calisma iklimde bir degisimin oldugunu gostermektedir. Bu degisim bircok tarimsal urunde oldugu gibi hashas uretiminde de hic suphesiz etkili olacaktir. Hashas ( Papaver somniferum L.) insanlik tarihinde en fazla bilinen, tibbi ve yag amacli kullanilan onemli bir endustri bitkisidir. Dunya’da, hashas uretimi ve afyon alkaloidi ticareti bakimindan soz sahibi olan Turkiye’nin hashas uretiminin iklim degisikliklerinden gelecekte nasil etkilenecegi bu calismada tespit edilmeye calisilmistir. Bu amacla; Iklim parametrelerinden sicaklik ve yagis (1961-2013 doneminden derlenen) verileri kullanilmistir. Hashasin; sicaklik, yagis ve topografyaya bagli olarak yetisebilecegi muhtemel alanlar gosterilmistir. Sicaklik ve yagis topografya ile modellenmis; sicaklik icin 7-16°C ...

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Climate Change Projections for Turkey: Three Models and Two Scenarios

Turkish Journal of Water Science and Management

A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future st... more A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of the world". The name "representative concentration pathways-RCP's" are referred to as pathways in order to emphasize that their primary purpose is to provide time-dependent projections of atmospheric greenhouse gasses (GHGs) concentrations. In this study, it is intended to reveal the possibilities of future climate change for Turkey and its surrounding region. HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR and GFDL-ESM2M Global Circulation Models' RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios outputs were used in the study. Temperature and precipitation projections were produced from these outputs, based on domain with 20 km resolution, covering period between 2016 and 2099 and using regional climate model RegCM4.3.4 and with dynamic downscaling method. According to the models results, it is expected that an increase between 1°C and 6°C in mean temperatures of Turkey. In generally precipitation amount shows a decreasing except winter season. Although there is no regular decreasing or increasing trend throughout projection period, it attracts more attention irregularity of precipitation regime.

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GFDL-ESM2M Modeli temelinde RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5 senaryolarına göre Türkiye için sıcaklık ve yağış projeksiyonları

Co, 2016

Öz: Senaryo, gelecekteki bazı olayları resmeden hikâyelerdir. Senaryo geleceğin tahmini değil, ol... more Öz: Senaryo, gelecekteki bazı olayları resmeden hikâyelerdir. Senaryo geleceğin tahmini değil, olması muhtemel alternatif durumların tanımlanmasıdır. Bunun yanında, emisyon senaryoları, iklim değişikliği çalışmalarının en önemli bileşenlerinden birini teşkil etmektedir. İklim geniş bölgelerde çok uzun zaman içinde gerçekleşen ortalama hava koşullarıdır. İklim değişikliği ise "nedeni ne olursa olsun iklimin ortalama durumunda veya değişkenliğinde onlarca yıl ya da daha uzun süre boyunca gerçekleşen değişiklikler" biçiminde tanımlanmaktadır. IPCC raporlarında da belirtildiği üzere Türkiye, iklim değişikliğine karşı en hassas bölgelerden biri olan Doğu Akdeniz havzasında yer almaktadır. İklim değişikliğinin olumsuz etkilerini en aza indirmek, sektörel bazda iklim değişikliğine uyum ve mücadele faaliyetlerini desteklemek amacıyla havza, bölge ve il düzeyinde sıcaklık ve yağış projeksiyonları geliştirilmiştir.

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MPI-ESM-MR MODELİNİN RCP4.5 VE RCP8.5 SENARYOLARINA GÖRE SICAKLIK ve YAĞIŞ PROJEKSİYONLARI

1 , omerdemir@mgm.gov.tr 1 , hatay@mgm.gov.tr 1 , oeskioglu@mgm.gov.tr 1 , byazici@mgm.gov.tr 1 ,... more 1 , omerdemir@mgm.gov.tr 1 , hatay@mgm.gov.tr 1 , oeskioglu@mgm.gov.tr 1 , byazici@mgm.gov.tr 1 , mdemircan@mgm.gov.tr 1 , akocaturk@mgm.gov.tr 1 , aakcakaya@mgm.gov.tr 1 1 Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü, Klimatoloji Şube Müdürlüğü, Ankara-TÜRKİYE Özet Senaryo, gelecekteki bazı olayları resmeden hikâyelerdir (Gregory ve Duran, 2001). Bu bağlamda, emisyon senaryoları, sera gazları ve aerosoller gibi yer yüzünün radyasyon dengesini bozan maddelerin gelecekte atmosferdeki konsantrasyonlarının tahmin edilmesidir (Moss vd., 2010). Senaryo geleceğin tahmini değil, olması muhtemel alternatif durumların tanımlanmasıdır (IPCC, 2000). Bunun yanında, emisyon senaryoları, iklim değişikliği çalışmalarının en önemli bileşenlerinden birini teşkil etmektedir. Bu çalışmada RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5 senaryoları için Almanya'da bulunan Max Plank Meteoroloji Enstitüsü tarafından geliştirilmiş MPI-ESM-MR küresel dolaşım modeli çıktıları kullanılmıştır. Bu senaryolar, IPCC 5. Değerlendirme Raporu'nda da en f...

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Increasing Resolution of Temperature Maps by Using Geographic Information Systems (Gis) and Topography Information

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Mesut Demircan

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