concept of a project cycle is used by most international institutions. Figure 1 Schematic Representation of the Project Cycle within its phases from programming to planning and evaluation. For this purpose the Figure 2 The life cycle of silkworm. Insertions: 1. Hatching, 2. 9 -12 days, 3. Brushing, 4. First instar, 5. Three to four days 6. First moulting, 7. 3-7 days, 8. Second moulting, 9, Third instar, 10. 3-4 days, 11. Third moulting, 12. Fourth instar, 13. 5-6 days, 14. Fourth moulting, 15. Fifth instar, 16. 6-8 days, 17. Ripe silkworm, 18. Spinning, 19. Pupation 4-5 days, 20. Pupa inside cocoon, 21. 10-15 days, 22. Emergence of moth, 23. Moth, 24. Eggs, 25. Diapause egg, 26. Non diapause egg, 27. Artificial hatching 11-14 days, 28. interring(no scale) Source: Veda. K.. et al.. (1997) ody is very hairy and the wingspan is about 50 mm. Adult females are larger and less active young age. Rearing of 4th and 5th instars comes under late age rearing. from Ist instar to 2nd instar. The 3rd instar although an intermediate stage, is considered as It has a wide spread expansion (see figure 3) Figure 3 Origin and spread of sericulture and Silk Road in 8th century and temperate latitudes in evergreen tropics and reaches a height of up to 20 to 25 metres. they undergo moulting and at the end they spin cocoons. Photo 4. Cocoons processing spp). The larvae develop in four stages for about 25 days, and between each of the four stages larvae weighs approximately 0.45 mg and exclusively eats leaves of mulberry tree (Moru Photo 5. Silk yarn processing cocoons, malformed cocoons, etc. perforated cocoons, internally and externally soiled cocoons, thin-end cocoons, thin-middle Figure 4 Technological process for silk reeling. Table 1: Silk, raw and waste production Development objectives and the economic challenge Most developing countries are raw material producers of agricultural commodities. Income generation in developing countries is therefore often dependent on agriculture in the form of Note: per capita in 2000 Year. Source: World Bank Statistics (2002) Table 4: Gross national income (GNI) and Gross national income per capita NBI Calculation of middle land of sericulture production "The calculation estimated by using 0.50 land mulberry. At the first year: 0.50 box/period and 5 times; second year: 0.75 box and 10 times; Third year:1 box and 10 times; Fourth to tenth year: 2 boxes and 10 times. Harvest = 25 kg fresh cocoons/box. The price of fresh cocoons per kg Rp. 17,500,- (1“ and 2"4 year) and Rp. 20,000,- (3" to 10" year) Table 5: Net benefit increase of sericulture production (in USD) ’ hectare (in USD) sericulture should be compared with alternatives in crop production. Table 6 shows a Table 7: Investments of sericulture production (in USD) The mulberry section includes costs for land preparation, fertiliser, mulberry cuttings and Table 8: Revenue of sericulture production per year (in USD) Table 10. Results of income with sensitivity analysis at 20% decrease of values (USD) As presented in the scenario for the critical cases, a limitation can appear in times of Table 11. Results of income for sensitivity analysis at 50% decrease of income (USD). decrease of 50% income. The results are shown in table 11. detail. Figure 6 shows the separated activities of "nucleus" and "plasma". Figure 6. The Activities of nucleus and plasma. Figure 7. The Structure of project organisation The Overview of the project plan is shown in figure 8. Figure 8. The Silkworm project plan BSA Figure 9. Mulberry and silkworm section proportion in budget of sericulture middle size of farm at 34 percent and larger size of farm at 49%, graphically detailed in figt 822.94. Proportion of mulberry section in the budget for small size of farm is at 21 percen Table 15. Result of sensitivity analyses for small size farms Results are shown in table 15 to 17. economically influence e.g.: increase of costs, and decrease of sell price of cocoons Table 16. Result of sensitivity analyses for middle size farms Middle size farms Table 17. Result of sensitivity analyses for larger size farms but such the value has changed from 10 to 7, 30% decreased, results were rentable. Source: FAO (2002), Statistics Table 19. Raw silk imports to Europe from 1997 to 2001 (mt) import quantity of raw silk is shown in Table 19. million USD, Germany an amount USD 21.75 million and France USD 11.26 million. The cost reducing by the farmers capital self (in USD) his family undertook some of the work. arrows show location of districts. Figure 10. Locations of project Table 22. Data of cocoon production BSA’s farmers in 7" period from 1999 to 2002, can be seen in Annex 9 to 48. Source: Banyumas Sutera Alam (2003), modified. Table 24. Expected variables of silkworm project at BSA: With these conditions the project results for 10 years duration were: Further criticality values of the project have been calculated. These are shown in table 25. Table 25. Criticality values of project expectations Values in table 25 mean that the value is at minimum value with condition: if the others Figure 11. Comparison between reality values with expected values: variable: Periods per year of variables in the expectations of the project. Figre 12. Comparison between reality values with expected values: variable: Box of silkworms/period Figure 13. Comparison between reality values with expected values: Figure 14. Comparison between reality values with expectation values: Table 26. Values of variables by the monitoring of project BSA from 40 periods Note: * Significant at 5 percent probability level. * * Significant at 1 percent probability level fresh cocoons Effect of varieties of mulberry on the yield of fresh cocoons Table 28. Effect of varieties of mulberry on the yield of fresh cocoons In vertical columns, means followed by similar letters are not significantly different (p<0.05) Table 29. Effect of feeding frequency on the yield of fresh cocoons best is feeding the larvae four times a day (P2). With results as such the investment of analysis is more profitable. for the next five years (until 2008) is as below: 4.Weakness & Threat (external) Strengths still possible for BSA to develop furtheron sericultural area in the future. Source: Banyumas Sutera Alam (2000) Appendix 1: The Price List of Fresh Cocoon per Kg (Rupiah) Appendix 3: Expected of project revenue | box silkworms required of labor 20 mandays Middle size of farm 1 box silkworms required of labor 20 mandays Middle size of farm 1 box silkworms required of labor 20 mandays Large size of farm Source: BPS Jawa Tengah Provincial Offic« http://jateng.bps.go.id/mp28.htm Price of BW/Box: USD 5.36 Banyumas Sutera Alam Banyumas Sutera Alam Harvest season 7 1USD: Rp 8,400.00 Banyumas Sutera Alam Banyumas Sutera Alam Harvest season 9 Banyumas Sutera Alam Harvest season 10 Banyumas Sutera Alam Average price of fresh cocoons /kg Average productions of fresh cocoons /b¢ Banyumas Sutera Alam Banyumas Sutera Alam Banyumas Sutera Alar Harvest season 14 Banyumas Sutera Alam Harvest season 16 Banyumas Sutera Alam Harvest season 17 Banyumas Sutera Alam Banyumas Sutera Alam Harvest season 22 Appendix 30: 22nd Yield fresh cocoons (continue Banyumas Sutera Alam Harvest season 27 Banyumas Sutera Alam Average price of fresh cocoons /kg Average productions of fresh cocoons /bo: Banyumas Sutera Alam Banyumas Sutera Alam Average price of fresh cocoons /kg Average productions of fresh cocoons /bo> Banyumas Sutera Alam Banyumas Sutera Alam Banyumas Sutera Alam Investment Anaysis for Project BSA ; ene lien
