Chart 1.1: Sampling Design Table 2.4: Development region composition The major caste/ethnic groups of the country are proportionately represented in the sample. Table 2.3: Adjusted age group composition of the sample Table 2.1: Sex composition Table 2.7: Religion composition Table 2.6: Caste/ethnicity composition Table 2.8: Educational status composition Table 2.5: Ecological region composition Table 2.9: Occupation composition Chart 3.1: Do you agree or disagree with the aims of the second peopleis movement? Chart 3.3: Do you agree or disagree with the aims of the second peopleis movement? Breakdown by Casie/Ethnicity Chart 3.4: In your opinion, what was the main reason for the peopleis movement? Effect of the Ceasefire CPN (Maoist) declared a three-month unilateral ceasefire on 26 April, 2006, two days after the King’s declaration of the reinstatement of the dissolved Parliament. The poll attempted to find out about how people perceived the effects of the ceasefire on their daily lives. Almost 88 percent of the respondents reported that they felt safer than they had before. Chart 3.7 Do you think that the Maoist movement will eventually be settled through peace talks? Chart 3.5: How safe do you feel in the present circumstances? Chart 3.6: How safe do you think is the rest of the country? The Peace Talks Chart 3.8 Do you think that the Maoist movement will eventually be settled through peace talks? Breakdown by Development Region The poll attempted to understand how sincere the publics think the government and the Maoists are about restoring peace to the country. In response to the question about the sincerity of the present government, a majority (66 percent) said that the present government was committed to restoring peace in the country. About 18 percent did not know or could not say anything on this matter. A majority (68 percent) also said that the Maoists were committed to restoring peace in the country and 20 percent professed ignorance about how serious the Maoists were. If the responses are considered together, it is clear that the public believe that both the present government and the Maoist leaders are serious about restoring peace in the country. Chart 3.9 Do you think that the present government is committed to restoring peace in the country? Chart 3.10 Do you think that the Maoist leaders are committed to restore peace in the country? Chart 3.11: Do you think that the ongoing peace talks will bring lasting peace in the country? Chart 3.13: How is the country doing today as compared to before Baishakh 11, 2063 i.e., 24 April 20067 The poll revealed that 50 percent of respondents do not know from which quarter the obstacle for resolving the crisis facing the country was coming. When the data is disaggregated by educational status of people, however, it becomes clear that the majority of the illiterate and those with low educational attainment levels professed ignorance while the majority of respondents educated up to the intermediate level or more believed the SPA and foreign powers were the obstacles to resolving the crisis facing the country. People’s assessment of the country’s present situation differs significantly across the five development regions. People in the Mid-West and Far-West have more positive attitudes i.e., good or very good (90 percent and 83 percent respectively) than their counterparts living in the Central and Western regions (75 percent and 67 percent) while the majority of people in the Eastern region (49 percent) stated that they thought the situation was okay. Chart 3.16: Do you agree or disagree with the reinstatement of the HoR? As is the case with other questions, education has a significant influence on the public’s views on this matter. The public’s agreement with the reinstatement of Parliament was found to be positively correlated with level of educational attainment: the higher the educational attainment of respondents, the more they agreed with the reinstatement of the Parliament. Chart 3.17: Do you agree or disagree with the reinstatement of the HoR? Breakdown by Educational Status A follow-up question ‘Why do you agree with the reinstatement of Parliament’ was asked to the 46 percent who answered that they agreed or strongly agreed with the reinstatement of Parliament. Among them, 51 percent mentioned that they agreed because it would bring peace to the country. Some 19 percent agreed because they thought it would help start negotiations with the Maoists. The percentage of those who agreed because it was the main demand of the people’s movement was only 17 percent. Chart 3.18: If you agree with the reinstatement of the HoR, why do you agree‘ After the HoR was reinstated, the Parliament passed a proclamation on May 18, 2006 (Jestha 4, 2063) in which the HoR was declared the supreme authority of the country. The poll tried to measure whether the public agreed or disagreed with this arrangement. It was found that about 49 percent of people were not in a position to give a definitive answer. About 33 percent agreed and only 10 percent strongly agreed. Chart 3.20: After the HoR was reinstated, the Parliament passed a proclamation in which the HoR was declared as the supreme authority of the country. Do you agree or disagree with this arrangement? Breakdown by Educational Status Chart 3.21: In your opinion, what are the positive features in the reinstated HoR ? Respondents were asked to identify the positive and negative features of the reinstated HoR. All respondents were asked two separate questions designed to elicit their views on both the positive and the negative features of the reinstated Parliament. Thirty percent of respondents identified the possibility of lasting peace (30 percent) as a positive feature while 18 percent identified the King’s autocratic rule coming to an end. Chart 3.22: In your opinion, what are the negative features of the reinstated HoR? Legitimacy of the System The poll attempted to understand people’s perceptions about legitimate government. In response to the question ‘Who should rule the country for the rule to be legitimate?’ most respondents (47 percent) said that a prime minister responsible to the Parliament was a legitimate ruler. About one-fourth professed ignorance in this matter while 9 percent said the Maoists should rule and another 9 percent saw the King as the legitimate ruler. Chart 3.23: Who should rule the country for the rule to be legitimate? Chart 3.24: Who should rule the couniry for the rule to be legitimate? Breakdown by Educational Status Constituent Assembly The poll was designed to find out how many have heard about the constituent assembly, if they feel they know about it and to assess their knowledge about it. It was found that 59 percent of the people have heard about the constituent assembly while 31 percent have not; the remaining 10 percent said they did not know or could not say. Chart 3.25: Have you heard about the constituent assembly? Chart 3.26: Have you heard about the constituent assembly? Breakdown by Rural/Urban Residence Chart 3.27: Have you heard the about constituent assembly? Breakdown by Sex Chart 3.28: Have you heard about the constituent assembly? Breakdown by Educational Status Chart 3.29: Publicis understanding of the constituent assembly Respondents who stated that they knew about the constituent assembly very well or somewhat well (23 percent of total respondents) were asked whether they thought elections for the constituent assembly were necessary. The overwhelming majority i.e., 98 percent said that it was necessary. As for the reasons why it was necessary, 44 percent said it was necessary so to bring lasting peace in the country, while 28 percent said it was needed to formulate a new constitution that would be satisfactory to all sides. Chart 3.30: How much do you trust CPN (Maoist)? The poll attempted to gauge the public’s views about what the main demand of the Maoists is. Most thought that the abolition of the monarchy and the establishment of a republic (28 percent) is the main demand of the Maoists. A significant proportion of people (20 percent) did not answer definitively. ‘Ensuring equality among all people’ is the next most identified response (17 percent) followed by ‘the establishment of a Maoist dictatorship’ (13 percent). Chart 3.31: What do you think the main demand of the Maoists is? Chart 3.32: What do you think the main demand of the Maoists is? Breakdown by Educational Status Chart 3.33: Under which circumstances are you ready to accept CPN (Maoist) as an open political party? In order to measure their confidence, respondents were asked ‘Are you confident that the Maoists will return the land and other assets that they have occupied and controlled?’ The public’s views were found to be fairly divided. Even though a slight majority of 37 percent mentioned that they were confident, the proportions of those who were not confident and who professed ignorance followed closely (29 percent and 32 percent respectively). Political Parties Chart 3.35: How much do you trust the political parties? Nepali Army Chart 3.37: How much do you trust the Nepali Army? All respondents were asked “What should the Nepali Army do to win more trust from the public?’ Most people said that the Nepali Army should be devoted to providing the people with security (42 percent). Another 30 percent said that they should be disciplined. A sizable proportion of 14 percent said that the Nepali Army should be an army of the country and the people. Chart 3.38: What should the Nepali Army do to win more trust from the public? Monarchy Chart 3.39: Should there be a place for the monarchy in Nepal of the future? Chart 3.40: Should there be a place for monarchy in Nepal of the future? Breakdown by Development Region Chart 3.41: Should there be a place for monarchy in Nepal of the future? Breakdown by Educational Status The 53 percent of respondents who said there should be a place for monarchy were asked why there should be a place. Some 45 percent mentioned that there should be a place for monarchy because it is part of tradition. A sizable proportion of 17 percent said they were in favour of monarchy because the forefather of the present king formed the country. Chart 3.42: If you think there should be a place for monarchy, then why? The 53 percent respondents who said there should be a place for monarchy were also asked what type of monarchy there should be. Thirty-four percent prefer a constitutional monarchy while 20 percent favour an active monarchy and 18 percent a ceremonial monarchy. Another 28 percent did not know what type of monarchy there should be. Respondents who said there should not be a place for monarchy (39 percent of the total respondents) were asked why there should not be a place. Thirty-eight percent said that there should not be a place for the monarchy because it is a feudal and exploitative institution. Another 27 percent thought so because the institution of the monarchy has not developed the country. A sizable proportion - 15 percent - does not want a place for monarchy because the institution has time and again worked against democracy. Chart 3.43: If there should be a place for monarchy, what type of monarchy should there be? Chart 3.44: If you think there should be no place for the monarchy, then why? Chart 3.45: Do you feel that over the last few years the king and the monarchy have become unpopular in the eyes of the people? Chart 3.46: If you think the king and the monarchy are becoming unpopular, why do you think so? The public’s responses on this matter vary significantly by the geographical regions. The majority of people living in the mountains and the hills think that the institution is becoming unpopular due to the palace massacre while a majority of Tarai people think that the loss of popularity can be ascribed to the temperament of the present king. The State and Religion Chart 3.48: Should Nepal of the future be secular or Hindu? Chart 3.49: Should Nepal of the future be secular or Hindu? Breakdown by Development Region Chart 3.50: Should Nepal of the future be secular or Hindu? Breakdown by Educational Status Chart 3.51: Should Nepal of the future be secular or Hindu? Breakdown by Religion The 60 percent of respondents who said Nepal should be a Hindu state were asked why they think so. About 70 percent stated that Hinduism is a part of Nepali tradition and that Nepal has been a Hindu state from its very inception. A sizable proportion (21 percent) thought that Nepal should remain a Hindu state because its identity in the world is as a Hindu state. Chart 3.52: If Nepal should be a Hindu state, then why? Chart 3.53: If Nepal should be a secular state, why? Unitary or Federal System Chart 3.54: Have you ever heard about the federal system? Chart 3.55: Have you ever heard about the federal system? Breakdown by Educational Status Chart 3.56: What should be the language policy of Nepal of the future? [n this matter, caste/ethnic background of respondents has a very significant influence on opinions. The majority of all hill communities (hill caste groups, hill Dalits, hill ethnic groups and Newars) think that Nepali should be the only official language while the majority of all Tarai communities (Tarai ethnic eroups, Tarai Vaishyas, Tarai Dalits, Tarai caste groups and Muslims) think that other languages should pe adopted as official languages at the local level. Chart 3.57: What should be the language policy of Nepal of the future? Breakdown by Caste/Ethnicity Electoral System As in the case of the federal system, knowledge about the electoral system is very low among illiterates and those with low educational attainment. Only people educated up to Bachelor’s and Master’s levels have heard of a proportional representative electoral system and know what it means. Affirmative Actions for Dalits and Women Chart 3.59: Have you heard about the proportional representative electoral system? Breakdown by Educational Status Chart 3.60: Have you heard of affirmative action? affirmative action for Dalits and women Chart 3.61: Have you heard of affirmative action? Breakdown by Educational Status Chart 3.62: If you have heard about affirmative action, do you understand it? The poll sought to document the public’s opinion about affirmative action for Dalits and women in different sectors such as political parties, the government, civil service and education. The proportions of those who say affirmative action is necessary for Dalits and women in the aforementioned sectors lie between 41 and 42 percent. Table 3.1: Percentage of those favouring affirmative action for Dalits and women Table 3.1: Percentage of those favouring Chart 4.1: Publicis support for monarchy 4.2 Types of Monarchy 4.3 Legitimacy of Government NCPS III revealed that a majority of people (47 percent) think that a prime minister responsible to Parliament should rule the country if the rule is to be legitimate. The proportions of people with this view in NCPS II and NCPS I were 42 and 52 percent respectively. The proportion of people who see the king as a legitimate ruler dropped significantly in NCPS III to just 9 percent from 26 percent during NCPS II. During NCPS I, 22 percent saw the King as a legitimate ruler. Clearly, Nepalis prefer a democratic system of government in which the ruler is the prime minister, not the king. Chart 4.3: Who should rule the country for the rule to be legitimate? Chart 4.4:How safe do you feel in the present circumstances? NCPS III reports that the majority of people (66 percent) think that the government is committed to restoring peace in the country. According to NCPS II, only 22 percent thought the then government was committed, while 46 percent did not. During NCPS I, 32 percent people had thought that the then government was committed to restoring peace; the majority, 51 percent did not. The public’s trust in the government’s commitment to restoring peace in the country has greatly increased between 2004 and 2006. Girija Prasad Koirala was the prime minister during NCPS III, the king was the chairperson of the government when NCPS II was administered and Sher Bahadur Deuba was the head of the government when NCPS I was administered. Another marked trend is the increase in the public’s level of trust in the Maoist leaders’ commitment to peace. In NCPS I only 13 percent believed that Maoist leaders were committed to peace and 62 percent believed they were not. By NCPS III, the trend had reversed: some 68 percent felt that Maoist leaders were committed to restore peace, while only 11 percent did not believe so. The shift towards trusting the Maoists is dramatic. Chart 4.7: Do you think that the Maoist leaders are committed to restore peace in the country? All three polls attempted to find out how many people have heard about the constituent assembly; if they have heard about it, how many think they understand what it is; and if they think that they understand it, how many of them correctly understand the process. Chart 4.8: Publicis understanding of the constituent assembly NCPS III ascertained that 18 percent of respondents do in fact understand the concept of the constituent assembly correctly. The proportion of people who understood the concept correctly was 14 percent during both NCPS II and NCPS I. The trend suggests that more people have heard the term and that more understood the term correctly. The increase in the number of people who correctly understand the concept is smaller than the number who have heard the term. (SDN 2004) Table 5.1: Have you ever heard about the federal system? (NCPS III) Table 5.5: What should the language policy of Nepal of the future be? (NCPS IID) Table 5.6: Of three different opinions on language belov which one do you choose? (SDN 2004) 5.2 Comparison between NCPS III and NCOP 2006 NCPS III and SDN 2004 both asked questions pertaining to the language policy of the Nepal of the future. NCPS III revealed that a clear majority, 55 percent think that Nepali should be the only official language. SDN 2004 revealed that most people (44 percent) think Nepali alone should be the official language. Both surveys indicate that most Nepalis are in the favour of a single- language policy. Table 5.7; Have you heard about the constituent assembly? (NCPS IID According to both polls, among those who have heard of the constituent assembly, an overwhelming majority approves of it. According to NCPS III, among those who know about the constituent assembly, 98 percent think that elections to it are necessary. Similarly, NCOP 2006 shows that 97 percent of those who have heard about it a lot or some approve of having a constituent assembly in Nepal. Table 5.8: Have you heard a lot, some, a little or nothing about the constituent assembly? (NCOP NN6) Table 5.13: Should the future Nepal hha caciular ar Hindi? (NCPC TIT) Table 5.15: Popularity of Parties (in percent) Another similarity 15 that DOT give low priority to Nepali Congress (Democratic). The major difference is that in NCPS III as high as 30 percent did not want to disclose their preference. In terms of being undecided, 15 percent in NCPS III stated that they did not know or could not say, while in NCOP 2006 the same figure was 18 percent. Another difference is that while in NCOP 2006, 25 percent said they intended to vote for Nepali Congress and another 25 percent said they intended to vote for UML, proportion of those who said they would vote for these parties in NCPS III were just 14 percent and 12 percent respectively. Q11: Do you agree or disagree with the aims of the second people's movement? Q12: In your opinion, what was the main reason for the people's movement? Q13: How safe do you feel in the present circumstances? Q14: How safe do you think is the rest of the country? Q17: Do you think that the Maoist leaders are committed to restore peace in the country? Q18: Do you think that the ongoing peace talks would bring permanent peace in the country? Q19: How is the country doing today as compared to pre-Baishakh 11, 2063 i.e., 24 April 2006? Q20: In your opinion, from which quarter is the obstacle for resolving the crisis facing the country, coming from? Q21: Do you agree or disagree with the reinstatement of the House of Representatives? Q24: After the House of Representatives was reinstated, the parliament passed the proclamation (on Jestha 4, 2063 i.e., 18 May 2006) in which the House of Representatives was declared as the supreme authority of the country. Do you agree or disagree with this arrangement? Q26: In your opinion, what are the negative features in the reinstated HoR? (Multiple code) Q27: Have you heard about constituent assembly? Q28: If you have heard about constituent assembly, how much do you think you know about it? Q29: If you think you know about it, in our country's context what is the process for going to the constituent assembly? Q33: Do you think that elections for constituent assembly would be held in an atmosphere without fear‘ (if you have understood about constituent assembly) Q34: How do you want to see the weapons of Nepali army and Maoist army managed so that you can safely cast votes in the constituent assembly elections? (if you have understood about constituent assembly) Q35: Do you think an international supervision is necessary for ensuring free and fair constituent assembly elections? (if you have understood about constituent assembly) Q36: What is your level of trust towards Nepal Communist Party (Maoists)? Q37: What do you think is the main demand of the Maoists? (Multiple code) Q38: Under which circumstances are you ready to accept CPN (Maoist) as an open political party? Q39: Are you confident that the Maoists will return the people's lands and other assets that they have occupied and controlled? Q42: What is your level of trust towards the political parties? Q43: What should political parties do to win more trust from the Nepali people? (Multiple code) Q44: What is your level of trust on the Nepali Army? Q45: What should the Nepali Army do to win more trust from the public? (Multiple code) Q46: Should there be or should there not be a place for monarchy in future Nepal? Q48: If there should be a place for monarchy, what should be the type of monarchy? Q49: If you think there should be no place, then why? (Multiple code) Q50: Do you feel that since the last few years the king and monarchy are becoming unpopular in the eyes of the people? Q51: If yes, why do you think it is becoming unpopular? Q52: Should the future Nepal be secular or Hindu? Q53: If Nepal should be a secular state, why? Q54: If Nepal should be a Hindu state, then why? Q55: Have you ever heard about the federal system? Q56: If you have heard about the federal system, how much do you think you have understood about it? Q57: What should be the type of state structure in the future Nepal? Q58: What should be the language policy of the future Nepal? Q59: Have you heard about the proportional representative electoral system? Q63: If you have heard about affirmative action, do you understand it? Q66: Who should rule the couniry for the rule to be legitimate? Q67: If general elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for? Annex Ill: Sample Distribution
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