Climate change and wildfires

2014

During recent decades too much focus fell on fire suppression and fire engineering methods. Little attention has been given to understanding the shift in the changing fire weather resulting from the global change in weather patterns. Weather change have gradually changed the way vegetation cover respond to fire occurrence and brought about changes in fire behavior and intensity. In the past two decades there has been an increase in the occurrence of catastrophic fires, fire fighters has lost their lives in the line of duty, the environment was degraded and the livelihood of many people has been damaged or destroyed. Fire season also seems to extend beyond the normal fire season making it difficult to confirm the duration of fire season. According to observations and recent reports across the globe, it was revealed that most wildfires managed to escape while fire fighters perceived that they had them under control. Some fires that escaped also resulted as a result of shortage of wate...

Climatic Change, 1998

In this study outputs from four current General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to project forest fire danger levels in Canada and Russia under a warmer climate. Temperature and precipitation anomalies between 1 CO2 and 2 CO2 runs were combined with baseline observed weather data for both countries for the 1980-1989 period. Forecast seasonal fire weather severity was similar for the four GCMs, indicating large increases in the areal extent of extreme fire danger in both countries under a 2 CO2 climate scenario. A monthly analysis, using the Canadian GCM, showed an earlier start to the fire season, and significant increases in the area experiencing high to extreme fire danger in both Canada and Russia, particularly during June and July. Climate change as forecast has serious implications for forest fire management in both countries. More severe fire weather, coupled with continued economic constraints and downsizing, mean more fire activity in the future is a virtual certainty. The likely response will be a restructuring of protection priorities to support more intensive protection of smaller, high-value areas, and a return to natural fire regimes over larger areas of both Canada and Russia, with resultant significant impacts on the carbon budget.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010

Recent bursts in the incidence of large wildfires worldwide have raised concerns about the influence climate change and humans might have on future fire activity. Comparatively little is known, however, about the relative importance of these factors in shaping global fire history. Here we use fire and climate modeling, combined with land cover and population estimates, to gain a better understanding of the forces driving global fire trends. Our model successfully reproduces global fire activity record over the last millennium and reveals distinct regimes in global fire behavior. We find that during the preindustrial period, the global fire regime was strongly driven by precipitation (rather than temperature), shifting to an anthropogenic-driven regime with the Industrial Revolution. Our future projections indicate an impending shift to a temperature-driven global fire regime in the 21st century, creating an unprecedentedly fire-prone environment. These results suggest a possibility ...

ie.unc.edu

Ecological Consequences of Climate Change 2012: A Roberts Environmental Center Annual Snapshot; J.E. Morhardt ed. , 2011

Climate change and human activity are​ significantly impacting the frequency and severity of wildfires across the globe. Although climate change and human population are the overarching factors affecting wildfires in the current dialogue, the issues are more complex and often not fully understood. These issues range from global temperature increases and severe drought cycles to the relatively new phenomenon of the wildland urban interface (WUI). This is the area where structures are integrated with or immediately surrounded by areas of moderate to high fire risk and are directly linked to fuel types and topographic features. Because climate change is such a highly politicized issue, there are generally limited governmental frameworks that enact policies that encourage a deeper understanding of the causal relationships between climate issues and population impacts on wildfire. While politicians debate whether climate change exists, scientists are showing us that it is producing real threats; some of these threats are the loss of life and property as a result of wildfire, as well as the critical economic impacts of suppressing these evermore frequently occurring, catastrophic fires. In: Ecological Consequences of Climate Change 2012: A Roberts Environmental Center Annual Snapshot; J.E. Morhardt ed.

Global and Planetary …, 2007

PLOS One, 2009

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. Citation: Krawchuk MA, Moritz MA, Parisien M-A, Van Dorn J, Hayhoe K (2009) Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire. PLoS ONE 4(4): e5102.

F1000 - Post-publication peer review of the biomedical literature, 2009

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counterbalanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning.

Fire is an intrinsic element of many forest ecosystems; it shapes their ecological processes, determines species composition and influences landscape structure. However, wildfires may: have undesirable effects on biodiversity and vegetation coverage; produce carbon emissions to the atmosphere; release smoke affecting human health; and cause loss of lives and property. There have been increasing concerns about the potential impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires. Climate change can alter factors that influence the occurrence of fire ignitions, fuel availability and fuel flammability. This review paper aims to identify tools and methods used for gathering information about the impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires, forest fuels and the probability of fires. Tools to assess the impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires include: remote sensing, dynamic global vegetation and landscape models, integrated fire-vegetation models, fire danger rating systems, empirical models and fire behavior models. This review outlines each tool in terms of its characteristics, spatial and temporal resolution, limitations and applicability of the results. To enhance and improve tool performance, each must be continuously tested in all types of forest ecosystems.

Doklady Earth Sciences, 2006