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Earth Sciences
Geology

Earthquakes in Italy: past, present and future

Profile image of Gianluca ValensiseGianluca Valensise

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https://doi.org/10.18814/EPIIUGS/2003/V26I3/016
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5 pages

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Abstract

Italy has a long-standing tradition of earthquake investigations. Seismologists can rely on one of the longest and most detailed records of historical seismicity, 20 years of homogeneous and reliable instrumental data, systematic and widespread active stress data and a comprehensive database of potential seismogenic sources. Here we describe these datasets and discuss how they may help us anticipate the large earthquakes of the future.

FAQs

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What defines Italy's vulnerability to earthquakes compared to other countries?add

The paper demonstrates that Italy houses about 50% of the world’s cultural heritage, making seismic impacts especially dangerous; for instance, the 1997 Umbrian earthquake caused substantial damage to historic sites like the San Francesco basilica.

How have historical catalogues influenced modern earthquake forecasting in Italy?add

Research indicates that modern earthquake catalogues, beginning with the 19th century, became essential for understanding seismicity, leading to the development of systematic forecasting methods by integrating historical data, as evidenced by the comprehensive catalogue of nearly 42,000 events published in 1985.

What advancements occurred in Italy's seismological data collection since the 1980s?add

Since the 1980 Irpinia earthquake, a continuous National Seismic Network has been established, recording tens of thousands of earthquakes, enhancing the analysis of active tectonics with data proving instrumental in understanding fault zones and their behavior.

What are the challenges of predicting future earthquake sizes in Italy?add

Future earthquake predictions are complicated by Italy's intricate tectonic history, where traditional models based solely on historical seismicity fail to identify seismogenic sources accurately; ongoing research projects are addressing these gaps to improve hazard estimations.

How does the potential seismogenic source concept contribute to earthquake forecasting?add

The potential seismogenic source model, incorporating about 250 identified segments, allows for more precise earthquake risk assessments in Italy by linking seismicity patterns with known geological structures, as detailed in the INGV's 2001-2003 Framework Program.

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