Seasonal and Cyclic Forecasting in Small Firm

International Journal of Forecasting, 2003

Sales forecasting is a common activity in most companies affecting operations, marketing and planning. Little is known about its practice. Mentzer and his colleagues have developed a research programme over twenty years aimed at rectifying the gap in knowledge. Most recently, in the Mentzer et al. (2002) paper they have demonstrated with supporting evidence the use of a sales forecasting audit to establish the dimensions of best practice. In this commentary on the paper, the methodology underlying their approach is examined from a number of different perspectives. The commentaries examine how convincing and complete has been the choice of audit dimensions as well as how this new research fits with evidence from other sources. Both commentators and respondents agree that the topic is important to organisational practice and more research is needed to gain a complete picture of the sales forecasting function and the systems that support it. Clarifying the audit function is particularly important since sales forecasting often has a low organisational profile until events turn sour with damaging consequences to organisational viability.

International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 2002

The purpose of this article is twofold. First, the article examines how managers can make more effective use of sales forecasts for strategic resource allocation decisions. Second, the article identifies those research issues in forecasting that must be addressed to better understand the managerial side of forecasting. Managers can improve resource planning by understanding the limitations of forecasts. These limitations are exemplified through several strategic forecasting paradoxes that managers must recognize. The paradoxes suggested here are: first, the most important managerial decisions a company can make are based on the least accurate forecasts; second, the most useful forecast information for resource planning is the least accurate; and, third, the organizations that need the most accurate forecast have the largest forecast error. By recognizing these paradoxes managers can devote their attention to improving the use and implementation of the forecast for better resource decisions. At the same time, future research should focus on broadening the understanding of the role of forecasts in strategic decision making.

Long Range Planning, 1986

This series is designed to fill the need for a compact treatment of major aspects of marketing management and practice based essentially upon European institutions and experience. This is not to suggest that experience and practice in other advanced economies will be ignored, but rather that the treatment will reflect European custom and attitudes as opposed to American, which have tended to dominate so much of the marketing literature. Each volume is the work of an acknowledged authority on that subject and combines distillation of the best and most up-to-date research findings with a clear statement of their relevance to improved managerial practice. A concise style is followed throughout, and extensive use is made of summaries, checklists and references to related work. Thus each work may be viewed as both an introduction to and a reference work on its particular subject. Further, while each book is selfcontained, the series as a whole comprises a handbook of marketing management. The series is designed for both students and practitioners of marketing. Lecturers will find the treatment adequate as the foundation for in-depth study of each topic by more advanced students who have already pursued an introductory and broadly based course in marketing. Similarly, managers will find each book to be both a useful aide-memoire and a reference source.

2009

There is little management literature on forecasting at national level and scarce practical issues. We are told only that there are several forecasting methods and that forecasting is a tool of strategic management. After addressing several claims about forecasting made in management literature, this paper presents several forecasting methods used in operational management

2003

Sales forecasting is a common activity in most companies affecting operations, marketing and planning. Little is known about its practice. Mentzer and his colleagues have developed a research programme over twenty years aimed at rectifying the gap in knowledge. Most recently, in the Mentzer et al.(2002) paper they have demonstrated with supporting evidence the use of a sales forecasting audit to establish the dimensions of best practice.

bit-Tech, 2019

Sales Analysis Using Forecasting Method aims to improve effectiveness and efficiency that facilitates companies in business transaction processes, improve the delivery of information quickly, accurately, and transaction data well and minimize errors. The method used in the presentation of this scientific work is by using a forecasting method which helps determine the approximate stock of goods to come. With 3 forecasting modules are: Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, Trend Projection is used to perform the forecasting process of the upcoming stock of goods. Can solve problems that exist in the current system so that it can help in improving its services by calculating the stock and helping by determining the average data that has been linked to the forecasting module whose results can be concluded through reports per period. It can be concluded that the results of implementing this new system can help companies in recording each transaction that occurs becomes more efficient ...

International Journal of Academic Management Science Research (IJAMSR), 2025

This study evaluated forecasting methods used by neighbourhood stores in Ago Palace Way, Okota, Lagos, Nigeria. The purpose was to ascertain the accuracy of the method(s) used and to recommend ways to improve the method(s). The study employed a quantitative research design. Structured interview and questionnaire were the instruments used to collect data. The data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics. The findings revealed that the neighbourhood stores studied employed elementary qualitative forecasting techniques to manage their inventory and predict future demand. Sources of information used for forecasting demand were the experience of sellers and information from suppliers. The study recommended the use of the simplest quantitative forecasting techniques (Time Series Analysis) because it could provide a more accurate sales forecast relative to the elementary forecasting techniques being used by the neighbourhood stores.

Journal of Forecasting, 2006

This paper presents results of a survey designed to discover how sales forecasting management practices have changed over the past 20 years as compared to findings reported by Mentzer and Cox (1984) and Mentzer and Kahn (1995). An up-to-date overview of empirical studies on forecasting practice is also presented. A web-based survey of forecasting executives was employed to explore trends in forecasting management, familiarity, satisfaction, usage, and accuracy among companies in a variety of industries. Results revealed decreased familiarity with forecasting techniques, and decreased levels of forecast accuracy. Implications for managers and suggestions for future research are presented.

Acta logistica, 2021

This case study presents the analysis through the use of sales estimation tools for planning demand for aggregate level as a finished product in a leading industrial products company in the market in Mexico. First, it aligned the demand plan and the supply plan, recommending the best execution scenario to increase operational efficiency and reduce the cost of operating the supply chain to increase the company's productivity and stay competitive. Then, after analysing the behaviour of the demand for selected products, the authors determined as the main affectation the inadequate precision of the method forecasting and the lack of an aggregate forecasting strategy that allows reducing the variation. Due to this, the most significant effort was concentrated on determining a better-forecasting model and the decision to aggregate the demand based on three relevant criteria: the demand pattern based on the Soft, Intermittent, Erratic or Irregular quadrant, the best method of the forec...