BRITAIN FOREIGN POLICY: THE INTERNAL CRISIS OF BREXIT

The Political Quarterly

2020

Biography 225 ideas have fed into practices such as ASEAN Good Governance, economic cooperation among Japan-China-Korea, South Asian Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the economic restructuring of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement(TTP) (reconstituted as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership following America's withdrawal). In Asia, given that disputes and conflicts, still remain and the ideological cleavage between socialism and capitalism cannot be ignored, some have placed greater emphasis on the pursuit of economic interconnectedness a la EU. As a result of that, China ha s developed what it calls the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that draws from the experiences of the EU, almost quarter of the countries in the globe have wished to become part of this initiative. In addition, we can also point to the multilateral Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Headquartered in Beijing, and with a wide-ranging global membership it describes itself as having ' a mission to improve social and economic outcomes in Asia.' Elsewhere in Asia, many have speculated that the EU model which sought democracy, freedom and reconciliation, peace and prosperity could provide lessons for future relations between Japan and South Korea. Yet in the last decade that model has been faced with its own existential crisis-personified by Britain's withdrawal from the EU, a longside a wave of nationalism and populism increasing its electoral presence across numerous member states ; not only Italy and Greece, but also France, Germany, the Netherlands and Hungary. In such an environment Euroskepticism has become an established element of the party-system and national debate-albeit to varying degrees. Economically the EU has also faced serious economic disruption. Although the EU became the world 's largest economic zone surpassing the United States , due to the deepening and widening as a result of the 2004 and 2007 enlargements, the economically developed countries of the EU failed to adequately help Southern and Eastern Europe members amid the Lehman Shock and the Euro Crisis. As a result, it is perhaps not surprising that dissatisfaction rose sharply in the member States most adversely effected. After the end of the Cold War, with the aim of "Return to Europe", 11 countries in Central and Eastern Europe joined the EU after going through a political, legal, and economic accession process. Despite all of the positives and hopes, accession also had its costs not least in the economic sphere that eventually provided fertile ground for populism and skepticism to emerge. It was Russia that noticed this situation. Putin funded European populist s including UKIP and Le Pen, and supported the growth of populism from the outside. Russia was deeply dissatisfied with being separated from the world by expell ing from the G8 after Ukrainian Maidan Revolution in 2014, Russia's occupation of the Crimea , its transfer to Russia , and promoted the division of 3 the EU. In contrast, China accelerated its BRI strategy to the west, avoiding conflicts between the United States and China, expanding their influence toward the west in partnership with Russia and Central Asia. In partnership with Britain, Germany and France, China promoted infrastructure support, capital investment, expansion of IT companies and cyber cooperation to Asia, Central Asia, Africa, and Europe. It also proceeded with a grand 100-year infrastructure development plan. All of this contributed to divisions within the EU as the economic superpowers like Germany, the UK and France focused on and emphasized the role of the international political economy with the " EU as a global power" and failed to pay attention to those member states suffering from the sovereign debt crisis, or those facing economic inequality after joining the EU. As a result, attitudes in the smaller member states became more skeptical towards the European project. In the meantime, the UK finally left the political institutions of the EU at the end of January 2020, after three-and-a-half-years of domestic political turmoil. Almost immediately after that event, the region was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Having first taken hold in Italy it subsequently spread across the region where it struck Spain, Belgium, and the UK particularly hard. Its presence has brought back memories of the post-WWI Spanish flu pandemic that had a devasting impact on life around the globe. The world has now been shaken by this disease for the past six months. Not surprisingly having to deal with COVID-19, which has mercilessly inflicted enormous social and economic costs on developed European countries , has diverted attention away from the Brexit negotiations. Those negotiations are continuing though without perhaps the media spotlight that they might have had. The UK remains scheduled to finish the transition period, with or without a deal, on December 31, 2020. This book, which brings together authors from across the world, including Europe, Asia and the USA is intended to consider the meaning of Brexit : its impact on the EU, the UK, Asia and the wider world four years after the June 2016 referendum. Many of the contributors believe that the EU-27 can recover from the loss of the UK, but that recovery will not be easy and will take time. As part of that process, the EU must overcome public dissatisfaction, Euro-skepticism, domestic and ethnic disparities, and rebuild solidarity with across the member states. Together these can give a renewed sense of momentum to the integration process. As part of that process the EU's present and future relationship with Asia will be crucial. Building relationships with Asia will also be crucial for the U K as it seeks to secure free trade deals across the globe. Maintaining the idea of a "global Europe" after Brexit, therefore, is not simply about the EU and China's relationship, it is also about whether the EU is able to ensure 4 stable multilateral relationships between the EU and Asia as a whole. In light of the above, this book consists of three parts. Part I. Post Brexit: Politico-Economic Changes in the EU and the Global World Part II. Post Brexit and European Integration Part III. Brexit and After: Influence on other Countries: Oceania, China, and India A very brief synopsis of each chapter follows: I, Post-Brexit, in the EU and the Global World consists of five papers. I-1. Martin Holland, Brexit in the Time of Coronavirus is clearly analyzing the following things. First, the UK and the EC/EU historical relationship after becoming an EC member over 47 years, Euro-skepticism in the UK, and the role of the EU-27 after Brexit. In addition, in the latter half of the chapter, the analysis of the interests in the EU in the Asian media (Japan, China, Indonesia) is particularly revealing. I-2. Kumiko Haba, Post-Brexit and Post-Corona: The UK, the EU, and Central East Europe : "Illiberal Democracy" and the Influence of China analyzes a number of key issues: the historic role of the UK in Central East Europe; EU-skepticism after the enlargement of the EU ; "Illiberal Democracy", which is predicated on a desire "not to leave the EU, but rather seek to reform it from within"; and the expansion of Chinese role in the EU. The chapter stresses that Regional cooperation between Asia and the EU leads the world after Brexit. I-3. Sang Chul Park, Asian Regional Cooperation is analyzing Asian Regionalism symbolized through detailed insights of the RCEP and the CPTPP. Especially after the global financial crisis, Asia transformed from trade protectionism to the FTA as a result of bilateral and multilateral relations. As the 'third power ' against the US and Europe Asia economic cooperation has been attracting attention. RCEP and CPTPP members are considering the future development of FTAAP. I-4. Hitomi Kimura, Recovery of the sovereignty and Regional Integration in EU and Asia after Brexit is analyzing the relationship between sovereignty and regional integration, which is the most important issue for the UK. Brexit was a choose about national sovereignty and democracy or the continuation of economic integration. On the other hand, in Asia, ASEAN and 5 APEC have embraced economic integration based on retaining national sovereignty. I-5. Binoy Kampmark and Petar Kurecic, Brexit and Trump: Genuine Anti-Globalization Revolution or the Repetition of 1848 is analyzing that Brexit was chosen as a result of increasing inequality, national anti-globalization, and nationalism. "Post Truth" urges a social transformation, arguing that it will be a national revolution like the European 1848 revolution. II. Post Brexit and European Integration analyzes economic, political, or structural domestic relationships within the EU. This section also has five papers. II-1. Bruno Dallago and Steven Rosefielde are researching the Post-Brexit European integration process. The paper is analyzing whether the impact of Brexit would be less disruptive than expected on the EU as a result of the EU's capacity to constructively fill institutional composition gaps. This reduces the system's vulnerability to asymmetric shocks. II-2. Stephen Day's "Brexit Fissures": Party Politics and Territorial Politics Post-2017 reveals how Brexit-induced cracks have accompanied the process of actualizing the referendum result. In so doing, he focuses on two main areas. First, the disruption t hat accompanied party politics during the 36 months prior to the Conservative Party's general election victory in December 201 9. Second, he shows how Brexit has amplified demands for a second independence referendum in Scotland and a 'border poll' in Northern Ireland. II-3. Sarah Harrison, Hopes and Fears in Pre-and Post-Brexit Britain shows the complexity of the referendum by analyzing a series of quantitative and qualitative data. The chapter reveals unprecedented polarization...

The vote by the British people to withdrawal from the EU – also known as a " Brexit " – means both the UK and the EU now face an unprecedented challenge. Brexit could have significant implications for the EU, the ideas and structures of European integration, and European geopolitics. The UK itself faces an uncertain future. This article examines why Brexit has come to pass and explores what it could mean for the EU, European integration, and Europe's economics and security. It argues that as with many of the other problems the EU has faced, the EU and UK will muddle through a Brexit, coping but not solving the challenges it presents.

Interdisciplinary Political Studies, 2018

In 2016, the Brexit-Trump watershed resulted in two consecutive shocks for British foreign policy, which under the May governments has been rearticulated around the goal to forge 'Global Britain'. This article discusses how the 'Global Britain' strategy may play out in two broad international domains – trade and security – to elaborate on implications for the international order. The analysis especially elucidates the dubious feasibility of compensating 'hard Brexit' with free-trade agreements around the world, and the pitfalls of extrication from the EU as regards common foreign policy, data-sharing and sanctions policy. Trump's election is argued to bring about a more protectionist trade environment while facilitating the prospect of a UK-US trade deal, which however compels the British government to uneasy balancing acts. Finally, an interest-oriented Global Brit-ain about to face diplomatic overstretching and economic difficulties is suggested to have turned into a more precarious defender of the rules-based international order.

European View, 2014

A referendum on whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the EU is no longer science fiction. British Prime Minister David Cameron has committed to a referendum in 2017 if the Conservatives win the 2015 elections. Before that, Cameron wants to negotiate a ‘better deal’ with the EU. What is his understanding of this ‘deal’, and what would the prospects for Britain be if they fail to achieve this and vote for an exit from the Union? How should the EU react to this British challenge? Are there any areas that could be reformed in order to please the British, while avoiding a ‘Europe a la carte’? The article describes the political background and history that has led to the current situation and British prospects outside the EU. It concludes with Britain's demands for EU reform and a possible EU response.

2016

This is the report of a Hearing of the LSE Commission on the Future of Britain in Europe that took place at the LSE on the 1 March 2016. Participants were invited based on their knowledge, expertise and experience of British foreign and security policy (including foreign economic and trade policy). The focus of the Hearing was the impact on British foreign policy of a possible Brexit. A secondary area of discussion centred on the consequences of Brexit on EU external relations. We are extremely grateful for the insightful contributions by the participants during the hearing. We extend special thanks to Lord Christopher Tugendhat and Professor Christopher Hill for their introductory remarks, which set the scene for the general discussion. This report is based on the ensuing discussion. None of the views or conclusions included in this report may be attributed to a single individual listed in the participant list. They are rather the summary views and conclusions drawn from the collec...

2020

Brexit is not only a matter involving the United Kingdom and the European Union. It also has far reaching external implications which this timely collection explores. The Handbook is a welcome contribution to the study of the multifaceted consequences of a state's withdrawal from the EU."

New Political Economy

The UK economy has long been associated with a weak balance of payments, reflecting an underlying growth model reliant on private household consumption. A deficit in goods trade, chiefly with the EU, has been offset by surpluses in services trade and foreign investment earnings. The Single Market provided wider markets for the UK, but did not fundamentally alter Britain's structural weaknesses. The Brexit vote took place against the background of Britain running its largest peacetime current account deficit. Financing Britain's external position represents a key challenge post-Brexit. Post-Brexit models for Britain partially address this. Any emergent model will critically depend on the nature of the Brexit deal with the EU, not least in terms of the impact on financial services and on supply chains. This paper sets out the recent evolution of the UK's current account position, particularly in relation to the EU. It then highlights particular areas of potential disruption from Brexit and sketches out scenarios of possible evolution of the Britain's external position in response to this.