Myanmar- Democratic Progress or Authoritarian Rollback?

2017

Democratic transition in Myanmar appears to have come to a standstill. Western analysts have focused on the political constraints faced by the National League for Democracy (NLD) under Aung San Suu Kyi. Most refer to the still-excessive power of the military to explain the party’s governance failure. However, a closer look suggests that the NLD is not only unable but is also unwilling to lead according to democratic principles.

Journal of International Studies, 2020

Myanmar (or formerly Burma) has been ruled by the military (tatmadaw) since 1962 and although multiparty elections were held in 1990, the Myanmar military junta simply refused to accept the results and transfer power to the National League Democracy (NLD) that won with a landslide victory. Instead, the Myanmar military junta announced its own version of political reform through the introduction of a “disciplined democracy” and as such convened a National Convention for the purpose of drafting a new constitution for the country. The constitution was finally approved in 2008 through a referendum that was highly rigged. Based on provisions of the 2008 Constitution, the military junta held another round of multiparty elections on 7 November 2010. Taking stock of events since 1988 and in the light of recent developments, this paper therefore attempts to gauge the future direction of the country’s political landscape by interpreting and analyzing recent events. More importantly, it would ...

Myanmar concluded historic elections in November 2015. These saw Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) trounce the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). The country's controversial 2008 constitution, however, reserves considerable power for the military, including guaranteeing the military control of three key ministries and creating a de facto power sharing dynamic between the victorious NLD and the military. We argue that this power sharing dynamic, as well as the precarious position of NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi, will lead to significant political and governance challenges.

European Journal of Development Research, 2019

This article analyzes Myanmar's transition from authoritarianism and asks if it represents a transition towards democracy or a hybrid form of rule. Starting from theoretical debates about modes of transition, the article examines competing discourses on Myanmar's opening and argues that it resembles an imposed more than a negotiated transition. Next, the article analyzes the links between this mode of transition and its outcomes, and finds that contemporary Myanmar is characterized by a combination of formal institutions for democratic representation, civilian government , and power-sharing, and problems of weak popular representation, limited civilian control of the military, and continued centralization of state authority. The article concludes that Myanmar's political trajectory remains open-ended, but also that Myanmar, at least for the time being, seems more accurately described as a relatively stable hybrid regime than as a country that is in transition to democracy.

SEARC Working Paper Series No. 135, 2012

Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 2019

For the most time since independence in 1948, Myanmar had been ruled by a ruthless military junta which also controlled large swathes of the economy. In 2008, the military promulgated, as part of its so-called "roadmap to democracy" process, a new constitution which foresaw the holding of free and fair elections for the country's new bicameral parliament. Notably, the military retained a de facto veto over future constitutional changes by reserving a quarter of the seats in both houses of parliament for military appointees. The new constitution also stipulated that the ministries for defence, home, and border affairs needed to be headed by military appointees, thus enshrining prerogatives for the military and paving the way for a system of hybrid governance. 2011 marked the beginning of a process of political transformation, with Senior General Than Shwe stepping down as head of the armed forces and as head of state. His hand-picked successor in the latter office, Thein Sein, became the first democratically elected president of Myanmar. Thein Sein proved willing to work with Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the oppositional National League for Democracy (NLD) which successfully registered for national elections later in the year. In the parliamentary byelections of 2012, the NLD won forty-three of the available forty-five seats, with

Myanmar: The state, community and the environment, 2007

The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) is the most important actor in Myanmar's political economy. This chapter focuses on the political situation in Myanmar in mid 2006 through the prism of the implementation of the seven-step 'roadmap' of the SPDC, announced in August 2003 (Table .1). Outwardly, the implementation of this road-map appears glacial, with three years already devoted to step one (the resumption and completion of the National Convention to draw up a new draft constitution). But the road-map provides a framework that can be used to consider the wider political situation, as well as the SPDC's agenda and activities-declared and undeclared-and the responses of the opposition and the prospects for the future. The wider aspects of the road-map implementation can be considered to extend to the continuing war of attrition against Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), in addition to other opposition elements which have strong name recognition, such as members of the 1988 student generation, and the SPDC's attempts to eliminate or suborn all armed opposition groups.

Contemporary Southeast Asia, 2004

This article examines social and political transition in Myanmar (Burma). Strategies for transition in Myanmar have tended to focus on elite-level politics, rather than grass-roots democratisation and social mobilisation. However, both approaches are necessary -although neither is sufficient in itself. While change at the national/elite level is urgently required, sustained democratic transition can only be achieved if accompanied by local participation. The tentative re-emergence of civil society networks within and between ethnic nationality/ minority communities over the past decade is one of the most significant -but under-examined -aspects of the social and political situation in Myanmar. 'Development from below', and efforts to build local democracy from the 'bottom-up', using local capacities and social capital, are underway in government-controlled areas, and in some ethnic nationality-populated ceasefire and war zones (including insurgent-controlled areas), as well as in neighbouring countries. However, the sector is still under-developed, and changes coming from civil society will be gradual, and need to be supported. This article examines the strategic challenges facing ethnic nationalist leaders and communities at this key period in Myanmar's history. It also addresses the roles that foreign aid can play in supporting the re-emergence of civil society in Myanmar, and advocates a policy of selective (or targeted) engagement'. BIOGRAPHY Ashley South is an independent consultant and analyst, specialising in ethnic politics, displacement and humanitarian issues in Myanmar. He is the author of a political history of lower Myanmar: Mon Nationalism and Civil War in Burma: The Golden Sheldrake (RoutledgeCurzon 2003). His current research on displacement in Myanmar is funded by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. A New Model for Democratisation Despite appearances to the contrary, the outlook for political transition in Myanmar is not entirely bleak. However, observers and activists must consider a broader range strategies for democratisation. 'Contemporary Southeast Asia' August 2004 (Even in a best-case scenario, the government-controlled the National Convention will only concern elite-level transition.) This notion ignores the role of civil society -which will be essential to any process of sustained democratisation. While change at the national levelwhether revolutionary or gradual -is urgently required, sustained democratic transition can only be achieved if accompanied by local participation. 'Contemporary Southeast Asia' August 2004 tolerance, came to a bloody end on 30th May 2004, when a government-organised mob ambushed her motorcade, killing and injuring dozens of her supporters. With 'the lady' in detention, international efforts to foster bi-partite dialogue between the SPDC and NLD came to a halt.

Routledge Handbook of Contemporary Myanmar, 2018