Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

Geoscientific Model Development, 2017

This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850-2014), and

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2015

It has been suggested that the Sun may evolve into a period of lower activity over the 21st century. This study examines the potential climate impacts of the onset of an extreme "Maunder Minimum-like" grand solar minimum using a comprehensive global climate model. Over the second half of the 21st century, the scenario assumes a decrease in total solar irradiance of 0.12% compared to a reference Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiment. The decrease in solar irradiance cools the stratopause (∼1 hPa) in the annual and global mean by 1.2 K. The impact on global mean near-surface temperature is small (∼−0.1 K), but larger changes in regional climate occur during the stratospheric dynamically active seasons. In Northern Hemisphere wintertime, there is a weakening of the stratospheric westerly jet by up to ∼3-4 m s −1 , with the largest changes occurring in January-February. This is accompanied by a deepening of the Aleutian Low at the surface and an increase in blocking over Northern Europe and the North Pacific. There is also an equatorward shift in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude eddy-driven jet in austral spring. The occurrence of an amplified regional response during winter and spring suggests a contribution from a top-down pathway for solar-climate coupling; this is tested using an experiment in which ultraviolet (200-320 nm) radiation is decreased in isolation of other changes. The results show that a large decline in solar activity over the 21st century could have important impacts on the stratosphere and regional surface climate.

Scientific Reports, 2016

Solar ultraviolet (UV) irradiance is a key driver of climatic and biotic change. Ultraviolet irradiance modulates stratospheric warming and ozone production, and influences the biosphere from ecosystemlevel processes through to the largest scale patterns of diversification and extinction. Yet our understanding of ultraviolet irradiance is limited because no method has been validated to reconstruct its flux over timescales relevant to climatic or biotic processes. Here, we show that a recently developed proxy for ultraviolet irradiance based on spore and pollen chemistry can be used over long (10 5 years) timescales. Firstly we demonstrate that spatial variations in spore and pollen chemistry correlate with known latitudinal solar irradiance gradients. Using this relationship we provide a reconstruction of past changes in solar irradiance based on the pollen record from Lake Bosumtwi in Ghana. As anticipated, variations in the chemistry of grass pollen from the Lake Bosumtwi record show a link to multiple orbital precessional cycles (19-21 thousand years). By providing a unique, local proxy for broad spectrum solar irradiance, the chemical analysis of spores and pollen offers unprecedented opportunities to decouple solar variability, climate and vegetation change through geologic time and a new proxy with which to probe the Earth system. Earth's energy budget is ultimately governed by incoming solar irradiance 1. Ultraviolet (UV) radiation comprises just 8% of total solar irradiance (TSI) 2 , but exerts a primary control on atmospheric dynamics via stratospheric warming and modulation of ozone abundance 2-4. UV (and in particular UV-B) is a key stress factor on the biosphere and impacts upon ecosystem-level processes such as competition and nutrient cycling 5,6. UV-B radiation induces genome instability by directly damaging DNA 6,7 , and has been invoked as a cause of both diversification and extinction during the Phanerozoic (the last 540 Ma) 8,9. Empirical knowledge of the role of UV in driving past climatic and biological change is absent owing to the lack of a palaeo-UV proxy that can be demonstrably applied over geologic timescales. Indicators of solar activity such as counts of sunspot numbers and cosmogenic radionuclides (10 Be and 14 C) are limited to timescales of 10 2 to 10 3 years, respectively 1 , but the relationship between solar activity and UV flux is uncertain 4. Calculated TSI variability across Milankovitch orbital cycles 10 provides an expected pattern for incoming UV radiation over timescales of 10 4 to 10 7 years, but cannot detect short-term, surface-level departures from the orbital signal, for example those due to ozone thinning 9 , volcanic events 11 , dust clouds from bolide impacts 12 , or continental uplift 13. A direct proxy for palaeo-UV flux would therefore provide both an indicator of UV as a climatic, environmental, and evolutionary forcing mechanism, and a recorder of atmospheric change across some of the major perturbations in Earth history. Sporomorphs (pollen and spores), the reproductive vectors of land plants, have a highly recalcitrant biogeochemistry, enabling their preservation and fossilisation. The outer wall (exine) is primarily made of sporopollenin,

Frontiers in Earth Science, 2022

We undertook multi-proxy analyses on two sediment cores from Lago Pato, a small lake basin at 51°S topographically separated from Lago del Toro in Torres del Paine (TdP), to provide insights into glacier dynamics and lake-level change in the TdP and Última Esperanza region over the last ∼30,000 cal a BP (30 ka). Lago Pato is situated in a region overridden by the Southern Patagonian Ice Field during the Last Glacial and in a transitional climatic zone of Southern Patagonia sensitive to seasonal- to millennial-scale changes in the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW). Results show that a deep ice-dammed and enlarged palaeolake encompassed Lago del Toro and Lago Pato c. 30–20 ka after the ice had retreated from local-Last Glacial Maximum (l-LGM) limits at c. 48–34 ka and during the build-up to the global-Last Glacial Maximum (g-LGM), c. 26–19 ka. Gaps in both sediment records between c. 20–13.4 ka and c. 20–10 ka suggest hiatuses in sediment accumulation during the g-LGM and Antar...

International Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics

The Sun would be subject to a significant variation of orbital motion about the solar system barycentre if a small planet is orbiting at a very large distance. This paper assesses if the Planet 9 hypothesis, the existence of a ninth planet, is consistent with the planetary hypothesis: the synchronisation of sunspot emergence to solar inertial motion (SIM) induced by the planets. We show that SIM would be profoundly affected if Planet 9 exists and that the hypothesised effect of SIM on sunspot emergence would be radically different from the effect of SIM due to the existing eight planets. We compare the frequency and time variation of Sun to barycentre distance, R B , calculated for both the eight and nine planet systems, with the frequency and time variation of sunspot number (SSN). We show that including Planet 9 improves the coherence between R B and SSN in the decadal, centennial and millennial time range. Additionally, as the variation of R B is sensitive to the longitude and period of Planet 9, it is possible to adjust both parameters to fit the variation of R B to the SSN record and obtain new estimates of the period and present longitude of Planet 9. Finally, we develop the hypothesis that planetary induced solar acceleration reduces meridional flow and consequently sunspot emergence thereby providing an explanation for the observed coincidence of grand solar minima with intervals of extreme solar acceleration.

Frontiers in Climate

Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to unders...

Photochemical and Photobiological Sciences, 2023

This assessment provides a comprehensive update of the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone and other factors (aerosols, surface reflectivity, solar activity, and climate) on the intensity of ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth's surface. The assessment is performed in the context of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and its Amendments and Adjustments. Changes in UV radiation at low-and mid-latitudes (0-60°) during the last 25 years have generally been small (e.g., typically less than 4% per decade, increasing at some sites and decreasing at others) and were mostly driven by changes in cloud cover and atmospheric aerosol content, caused partly by climate change and partly by measures to control tropospheric pollution. Without the Montreal Protocol, erythemal (sunburning) UV irradiance at northern and southern latitudes of less than 50° would have increased by 10-20% between 1996 and 2020. For southern latitudes exceeding 50°, the UV Index (UVI) would have surged by between 25% (year-round at the southern tip of South America) and more than 100% (South Pole in spring). Variability of erythemal irradiance in Antarctica was very large during the last four years. In spring 2019, erythemal UV radiation was at the minimum of the historical (1991-2018) range at the South Pole, while near record-high values were observed in spring 2020, which were up to 80% above the historical mean. In the Arctic, some of the highest erythemal irradiances on record were measured in March and April 2020. For example in March 2020, the monthly average UVI over a site in the Canadian Arctic was up to 70% higher than the historical (2005-2019) average, often exceeding this mean by three standard deviations. Under the presumption that all countries will adhere to the Montreal Protocol in the future and that atmospheric aerosol concentrations remain constant, erythemal irradiance at mid-latitudes (30-60°) is projected to decrease between 2015 and 2090 by 2-5% in the north and by 4-6% in the south due to recovering ozone. Changes projected for the tropics are ≤ 3%. However, in industrial regions that are currently affected by air pollution, UV radiation will increase as measures to reduce air pollutants will gradually restore UV radiation intensities to those of a cleaner atmosphere. Since most substances controlled by the Montreal Protocol are also greenhouse gases, the phase-out of these substances may have avoided warming by 0.5-1.0 °C over mid-latitude regions of the continents, and by more than 1.0 °C in the Arctic; however, the uncertainty of these calculations is large. We also assess the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on climate, focusing on the poleward shift of climate zones, and discuss the role of the small Antarctic ozone hole in 2019 on the devastating "Black Summer" fires in Australia. Additional topics include the assessment of advances in measuring and modeling of UV radiation; methods for determining personal UV exposure; the effect of solar radiation management (stratospheric aerosol injections) on UV radiation relevant for plants; and possible revisions to the vitamin D action spectrum, which describes the wavelength dependence of the synthesis of previtamin D 3 in human skin upon exposure to UV radiation.

Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 2017

The Maunder minimum (MM) was a period of extremely low solar activity from approximately AD 1650 to 1715. In the solar physics literature, the MM is sometimes associated with a period of cooler global temperatures, referred to as the Little Ice Age (LIA), and thus taken as compelling evidence of a large, direct solar influence on climate. In this study, we bring together existing simulation and observational studies, particularly the most recent solar activity and paleoclimate reconstructions, to examine this relation. Using northern hemisphere surface air temperature reconstructions, the LIA can be most readily defined as an approximately 480 year period spanning AD 1440-1920, although not all of this period was notably cold. While the MM occurred within the much longer LIA period, the timing of the features are not suggestive of causation and should not, in isolation, be used as evidence of significant solar forcing of climate. Climate model simulations suggest multiple factors, particularly volcanic activity, were crucial for causing the cooler temperatures in the northern hemisphere during the LIA. A reduction in total solar irradiance likely contributed to the LIA at a level comparable to changing land use.

Atmospheric and Climate Sciences

In this study, annual, quarterly, and monthly mean precipitation data in Saudi Arabia were correlated with sunspot number (SSN) and galactic cosmic ray (CR) flux over 35 years (1985-2019). The results show that the strength, magnitude, proportion and statistical significance of the relationship between precipitation and the two variables varied by season and month. We find that mean annual precipitation in Saudi Arabia, from May to November, and summer and autumn are correlated with cosmic rays and inversely correlated with SSN. Correlations of varying intensities and scales were found during the remaining months and during winter and spring. The relationships between the rainfall and SSN and CR for each solar cycle were investigated and showed that for all three cycles, the annual rainfall over Saudi Arabia has a positive correlation with CR. Different results were obtained when the seasonal rainfall data correlated with the SSNs and CRs during each cycle. The results obtained, in terms of their strength and magnitude, are affected by terrestrial and extra-terrestrial factors. These factors have been briefly presented and discussed. These findings represent a step towards understanding the possible role of solar activity in climate change for future meteorological phenomenon forecasting, even if the physical mechanism is still poorly quantified.

Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 2021

While knowledge of the energy inputs from the Sun (as it is the primary energy source) is important for understanding the solar-terrestrial system, of equal importance is the manner in which the terrestrial part of the system organizes itself in a quasi-equilibrium state to accommodate and re-emit this energy. The ROSMIC project (2014-2018 inclusive) was the component of SCOSTEP's Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact (VarSITI) program which supported research into the terrestrial component of this system. The four themes supported under ROSMIC are solar influence on climate, coupling by dynamics, trends in the mesosphere lower thermosphere, and trends and solar influence in the thermosphere. Over the course of the VarSITI program, scientific advances were made in all four themes. This included improvements in understanding (1) the transport of photochemically produced species from the thermosphere into the lower atmosphere; (2) the manner in which waves produced in the lower atmosphere propagate upward and influence the winds, dynamical variability, and transport of constituents in the mesosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere; (3) the character of the long-term trends in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere; and (4) the trends and structural changes taking place in the thermosphere. This paper reviews the progress made in these four areas over the past 5 years and summarizes the anticipated research directions in these areas in the future. It also provides a physical context of the elements which maintain the structure of the terrestrial component of this system. The effects that changes to the atmosphere (such as those currently occurring as a result of anthropogenic influences) as well as plausible variations in solar activity may have on the solar terrestrial system need to be understood to support and guide future human activities on Earth.