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Outline

Reasoning and Evidence One Does Not Possess1

1980, Midwest Studies In Philosophy

https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1475-4975.1980.TB00403.X

Abstract

y reasoning or inference I do not mean a proof or argument in a logician's B sense. I mean, rather, a process by which one changes one's overall view, adding some things, subtracting others. As a heuristic aid in studying reasoning in this sense, I shall tentatively assume that our intuitions about knowledge are fairly accurate and I shall also tentatively assume the following two principles:

References (16)

  1. Cf. Ernest Sosa, "The Analysis of 'Knowledge that PI," Anulysis 25 (1964)-65):1-8.
  2. Sosa states a principle like (Qa) and gives an example that might support (Qb).
  3. C. G. Hempel, Philosophy of Natural Science (Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1966), p. 143.
  4. Karl Popper, The Logic of Scientific Discovery (New York, 1959), p. 251.
  5. Richard C. Jeffrey, "Probability and Falsification: Critique of the Popper Program," Synthese 30 (1975): 95-117, especially p. 104.
  6. I can see no way to give a purely probabilistic explanation of why this dogmatic strat- egy is irrational. Popper clearly means to be objecting to exactly this SOIT of strategy, SO I think that no purely probabilistic interpretation of his view could be adequate. 14. See John Dewey, Logic: The Theory of Inquiry (New York, 1938). especially pp. 7-9.
  7. James Cnrgile points out to me that even after accepting h one might continue inquiry into (3) the probability is also at least .9 that there is no ab-evidence in relation to which the conditional probability is less than .9 that there is n o ab-evidence in relation to which the conditional probability of h is less than .9.
  8. etc., ad infinitum. To avoid this infinite regress we can replace (2) with (Z.): (Z') One may accept a conclusion h if and only if the probability is at least .9 of the follow- ing self-referential conjunction: "h and there is no ab-evidence in relation t o which the conditional probability of this whole conjunction is less than .9." (Here and throughout this section and in the earlier discussion of (2) I am indebted to William Smith.) 25. This shows that something might be implicitly believed even though it is not an ob- vious consequence of what one explicitly believes, if it is part of what is involved in believing what one believes. I overlooked this in my discussion of implicit belief in "Is There Mental Representation!" Perception and Cognition Issues in the Foundations of Psychology, vol. IX in Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science, ed. Wade Savage (Minneapolis, 1978), pp. 57-64.
  9. For a useful recent discussion of some of the issues here, see Saul A. Kripke, "Outline of a Theory of Truth," Journal of Philosophy 72 (1975): 690-716.
  10. H. P. Grice, "Meaning," Philosophical Review 66 (1957): 377-88; "Utterer's Meaning and Intentions," Philosophical Review 78 (1969): 147-77.
  11. Stephen Schiffer, Meaning (Oxford, 1972), p. 30. David Lewis, "Languages and Lan- guage," in Language, Mind, and Knowledge, vol. VII in Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science, ed. Keith Gunderson (Minneapolis, 1975), p. 6; or David Lewis, "Languages, Lan- guage, and Gammer," in Gilbert Harman, On Noam Chomsky (New York, 1974), p. 256. Elsewhere Lewis defines a weak sort of "common knowledge" in such a way that something may be "common knowledge" in a population P even if no one knows it and even if it is not the case; see David Lewis, Convention (Cambridge. Mass., 1969). pp. 52-56. More recently. Lewis adopts the term "overt belief" for the weaker notion; see David Lewis, "Truth in Fic- tion," American Philosophical Quarterly 15 (1978) at p. 44, fn. 13. (But Lewis's definition would sometimes seem to count something as overtly believed in a population even though no one believed it.)
  12. Gilbert Harman, "Practical Reasoning," Review of Metaphysics 29 (1976): 431-63.
  13. Alvin 1. Goldman, "A Causal Theory of Knowing," Journal of Philosophy 64 (1967):
  14. "Practical Reasoning." (I there say "guaranteed" rather than "settled," but Pat Green- span has convinced me that "guaranteed" is too strong.) Note, by the way, that this does not fully distinguish intentions from mere beliefs, since, as Derek Parfit has observed, there are neurotic beliefs of the wrong form, e.g., the insomniac's belief that he will stay awake by virtue of having that very belief. 357-72.
  15. Alvin I. Goldman, "Discrimination and Perceptual Knowledge."
  16. Marshall Swain appeals to what is "objectively likely" in his discussion of Goldman's examples in "Reasons, Causes, and Knowledge," The Journal of Philosopby 75 (1978): 240-41. Goldman suggests that what is at issue is whether the speaker, who says that someone knows something, considers a given alternative possibility to be relevant. But that is oversimplified, since the speaker too may be ignorant of the many nearby barn facades or the local practice of spreading lava around mountains. It is the objective likelihood, in some sense, of the alternative possibilities that makes them relevant. Of course, the speaker's standards (of how objectively unlikely an alternative has to be to permit knowledge) may be relevant, but that is a different point. 34. This also shows that obtainable evidence cannot be defined simply as evidence such that there is a significant likelihood that one would obtain it if one undogmatically pursued