A multi-layered dual-process approach to conditional reasoning

The Open Psychology Journal, 2010

This article traces the philosophical and psychological connections between causation and the conditional, if...then, across the two main paradigms used in conditional reasoning, the selection task and the conditional inference paradigm. It is argued that hypothesis testing in the selection task reflects the philosophical problems identified by Quine and Goodman for the material conditional interpretation of causal laws. Alternative formal theories to the material conditional only became available with the advent of possible worlds semantics . The relationship proposed by this semantics between counterfactual and indicative conditionals is outlined and it is concluded that moving away from the abstractions of possible worlds proposes a central role for prior knowledge in conditional inference. This conclusion is consistent with probabilistic approaches to conditional inference which provide measures of the strength of a dependency between the antecedent and the consequent of a conditional similar to those proposed in causal learning. Findings in conditional inference suggest that people are influenced not only by the strength of a dependency but also by the existence of the structural relationship, the broader causal framework in which a dependency is embedded, and the inhibitory and excitatory processes like those required to implement Causal Bayes nets or neural networks. That these findings may have a plausible explanation using the tools of current theories in causal learning suggests a potentially fruitful convergence of research in these two areas.

2015

The paper discusses a multiple-logics proposal for cognitive modelling of reasoning processes. It describes a staged view of human reasoning which takes interpretation seriously, and provides a non-technical introduction to a logic fit for modelling interpretative processes – Logic Programming. It summarises some results of the multiple-logics approach obtained with modelling psychological data, and with empirical tests of a combined use of reasoning strategies by human subjects. It draws some interim conclusions, and proposes avenues for future research.

The Open Psychology Journal, 2010

This article traces the philosophical and psychological connections between causation and the conditional, if...then, across the two main paradigms used in conditional reasoning, the selection task and the conditional inference paradigm. It is argued that hypothesis testing in the selection task reflects the philosophical problems identified by Quine and Goodman for the material conditional interpretation of causal laws. Alternative formal theories to the material conditional only became available with the advent of possible worlds semantics . The relationship proposed by this semantics between counterfactual and indicative conditionals is outlined and it is concluded that moving away from the abstractions of possible worlds proposes a central role for prior knowledge in conditional inference. This conclusion is consistent with probabilistic approaches to conditional inference which provide measures of the strength of a dependency between the antecedent and the consequent of a conditional similar to those proposed in causal learning. Findings in conditional inference suggest that people are influenced not only by the strength of a dependency but also by the existence of the structural relationship, the broader causal framework in which a dependency is embedded, and the inhibitory and excitatory processes like those required to implement Causal Bayes nets or neural networks. That these findings may have a plausible explanation using the tools of current theories in causal learning suggests a potentially fruitful convergence of research in these two areas.

The Human Plausible Reasoning is an area, which is based on possible responses and can be applied in several knowledge based systems. This paper will introduce Human Plausible Reasoning theory along with reasoning processes and rationality theory. Human Plausible Applications will be explored along with its focus on Enterprise Information System. Finally challenges in this field will be discussed and future trends in this direction will be explored.

Modélisation et utilisation du contexte

Les recherches de ces 50 dernières années ont montré que le raisonnement avec et à propos du contexte est un aspect essentiel de la cognition humaine, imprégnant le langage, la mémoire et les capacités de raisonnement. L'ensemble de ce processus est développé au cours du temps par un apprentissage basé sur l'expérience. En supposant que le but de l'intelligence artificielle est de doté une machine d'une intelligence proche de celle des humains, il est essentiel de considérer et incorporer le concept de contexte dans la conception et l'implémentation des systèmes intelligents. Ce papier discute du raisonnement contextuel chez l'humain et comment celui-ci aide les humains à faire face avec succès à des tâches cognitives complexes. Nous relions de plus cette recherche sur le contexte en psychologie cognitive aux recherches actuelles sur le raisonnement contextuel ans les systèmes d'intelligence artificielle. ABSTRACT. Research over the last 50 years has shown that reasoning with and about context is an essential aspect of human cognition, permeating language, memory, and reasoning capabilities. This integral process is developed over a lifetime through experiential learning. Given the goal of artificial intelligence to create human-like intelligence in a machine, it is essential to consider and incorporate the concept of context in intelligent system design and implementation. This paper discusses contextual reasoning in humans and how it helps humans successfully deal with complex cognitive tasks. We further link this research on context in cognitive psychology with the current research in contextual reasoning in Artificial Intelligence systems. MOTS-CLÉS. Contexte dans la cognition humaine, raisonnement contextuel, Contexte dans la cognition humaine, raisonnement contextuel. KEYWORDS. Context in human cognition, contextual reasoning, role of context in learning.

Dual-process theories of reasoning assume a fundamental difference between two cognitive systems: fast and intuitive System 1, and slow and rational System 2, grounded on rules of logical inference. Peirce's diagrammatic logic challenges the dichotomy. Both systems are based on similar inferential connections, but the former draws its conclusions as modelled in positive implicational fragment of the latter. This logical connection between two systems explains empirical results from Wason's card selection task without appeal to confirmation bias.

The Spanish journal of psychology. Published online by Cambridge University Press: 10 April 2014, 1999

The importance of pragmatic aspects in conditional reasoning was assessed in the performance of 54 subjects (26 female and 28 male; mean age 17.6 years) on 48 conditional inference problems, using a 3 × 2 × 4 design, with repeated measurements. The independent variables were probability of empirical frequency in the real world, type of conditional rule, and scenario availability. Number of correct responses and subjects' certainty about the correctness of their responses were the dependent variables. The results showed: a) the scenario availability is not sufficient in itself to explain differences in performance, but it does affect the subjects' degree of confidence in their conclusions; b) there is an interaction between probability of empirical frequency in the real world and type of conditional rule on correct performance. The results were contrasted with the predictions made by the mental models theory and its revised version proposed by Evans (1993). .These findings support the semantic theories of conditional reasoning.. Resumen En este trabajo hemos estudiado la importancia de factores pragmáticos en razonamiento condicional, analizando la ejecución de 54 sujetos (26 mujeres - 28 hombres, cuya media de edad era de 17.6 años). Planteamos un diseño 3 × 2 × 4 de medidas repetidas en los tres factores. Las variables manipuladas fueron: la relación empírica existente en el mundo, el tipo de regla y la accesibilidad del escenario. Se utilizaron como variables dependientes el número de respuestas correctas y la seguridad de los sujetos en la corrección de sus juicios. Los resultados han puesto de manifiesto que: a) la accesibilidad del escenario no es en sí misma suficiente para explicar las diferencias en la ejecución, pero afecta al grado de seguridad de los sujetos en sus conclusiones; b) hay una interacción entre probabilidad de frecuencia empírica en el mundo real y el tipo de norma lógica sobre la ejecución correcta. Contrastamos los resultados con las predicciones de la teoría de modelos mentales y con la versión revisada (Evans, 1993). Los datos apoyan las teorías semánticas del razonamiento condicional. References Byrne, R.M.J., & Johnson-Laird, P.N. (1992). The spontaneous use of propositional connectives. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 45A, 89–110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar Cheng, P.W., & Holyoak, K.J. (1985). Pragmatic reasoning schemas. Cognitive Psychology, 17, 391–416.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed Cheng, P.W., & Holyoak, K.J. (1989). On the natural selection of reasoning theories. 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Cognitive Science, 2004

Modern logic provides accounts of both interpretation and derivation which work together to provide abstract frameworks for modelling the sensitivity of human reasoning to task, context and content. Cognitive theories have underplayed the importance of interpretative processes. ...

2006

The core of our argument is that the human mental architecture is composed of nine subsystems of equal status that interact as parts of a coherent overall system, and therefore one mind. Two of these subsystems represent qualitatively different types of meaning, one propositional in nature and the other a more abstract holistic representation, called implicational meaning (Barnard & Teasdale,

SYMPOSIUM ON MENTAL MODELS IN REASONING. UNED, November, 1998

An extended version of this paper was published in the chapter "CONDITIONAL REASONING : THE IMPORTANCE OF INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES" in the book MENTAL MODELS IN REASONING (J.A. GARCÍA MADRUGA, N.CARRIEDO & JM GONZÁLEZ- LABRA, 2000). This book is a collection of the papers presented at the "SYMPOSIUM ON MENTAL MODELS IN REASONING", which took place in Madrid in November,1998. This occasion enabled the spanish experts in reasoning with of their European colleagues with the common aim to celebrate the awards the UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE EDUCACIÓN A DISTANCIA (UNED) of an Honoris Causa Doctorate Degree to PHIL N JONHNSON.LAIRD..