National and Sectoral GHG Mitigation Potential

2011

This report provides an analysis of the impact of global greenhouse gas policies on traditional air pollutants using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model in the time horizon up to 2050. The integrated assessment framework of GAINS has been linked through an interface to the POLES global energy system model so that different global energy pathways can be implemented and examined. The impact analysis has been carried out based on projections of energy use data provided by the POLES model for two different climate policy scenarios, i.e., for a current policy Baseline scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and a 2-degree Centigrade climate Mitigation scenario which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. Outcomes of the analysis are reported globally and for key world regions: EU-27, China, India and the US. The assessment takes into account current air pollution control legislation in each c...

2000

2011

Energy Policy, 2014

Greenhouse gas emissions range from a low of 7.2 t/capita in Switzerland to a high of 26.8 t/capita in Australia. Results show that energy prices, economic output, and environmental governance explain two-thirds of the differences in per capita GHG emissions. If energy prices are increased to the average of the three highest priced OECD countries GHG emissions would fall about 60%.

2016

This report presents the GAINS model methodology for the 2016 Reference scenario for emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), mitigation potentials and costs in the EU-28 with projections to 2050. The non-CO2 emission scenarios form part of the work under the EUCLIMIT2 project1. The project aims at producing projections for all emissions of GHGs in the EU-28 consistent with the macroeconomic and population projections presented in EC/DG ECFIN (2015). Four modelling groups were involved in the work: PRIMES (National Technical University of Athens), CAPRI (Bonn University), GLOBIOM (IIASA-ESM program) and GAINS (IIASA-MAG program). This report focuses on describing the methodology of the GAINS model for the estimation of the non-CO2 GHGs, i.e., methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and three groups of fluorinated gases (F-gases) viz. hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). The report is structured as follows. Section 2 presents the general ...

2003

The long-term objective of the European Union climate policy is to prevent global mean temperature rising by more than 2°C over pre-industrial levels. Without policy induced constraints this target will be missed by a substantial margin. According to model-based estimates and projections, if no further action to control emissions is taken concentrations of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere may increase from 425 parts per million volume (ppmv) CO 2-equivalent today to 935 ppmv CO 2-equivalent in 2100. This could cause global temperature to rise by more than 3°C by 2100. To explore the implications of the EU climate target, two constrained global emission profiles have been developed. They correspond to stabilising the total greenhouse gas concentration at levels of 550 and 650 ppmv in CO 2 equivalent, for the set of six greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol. These profiles are hereafter referred to as S550e and S650e. The range of the temperature rise associated with these two emission profiles depends on the uncertainty about the 'climate sensitivity' parameter, which is defined as the global average temperature rise resulting from doubling CO 2 concentrations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates the range of the climate sensitivity to be from 1.5 to 4.5°C, with a median value of 2.5°C. Using this uncertainty range, the S550e profile will result in a global mean temperature rise of less than 2°C for a low to median value of the climate sensitivity. The S650e profile only stays below this value if the climate sensitivity is at the low end of the range. This means that this profile is less likely to meet the EU target. If the climate sensitivity is high, the EU target will not be met in either profile. world regions that combine a rapid growth in their economic and energy systems and an already high vulnerability to air pollution problems, as is the case for Asia.-The second approach is developed in a general equilibrium framework and uses the 'state of the environment' module of the GEM-E3 model; the transferability of data gathered in Europe or in the US to other world regions still raises important problems and the results should thus be considered as preliminary; however, this exercise allows to produce a first assessment of environmental co-benefits assessed in terms of welfare, which can be usefully compared with the costs of greenhouse gas abatement policies. Changes from the baseline in global sulphur and nitrogen oxides emissions in the constrained emission profiles are significant, as emissions from these gases would be significantly reduced as a side effect of climate policies. The S650e profile leads to worldwide reductions of sulphur and nitrogen oxide emissions of 50% and 35% from baseline, respectively. The S550e profile leads to even stronger reductions, i.e. 70% and 50%. These results can also be analysed on a regional basis. This shows that co-benefits will occur in all regions. However, as emissions of both sulphur and nitrogen oxides are comparatively larger in the low-income regions, due to currently less strict air pollution control policies, the co-benefits are more important in these regions. Particularly, in the Asian regions with high baseline emissions climate policies would thus incur significant reductions. All studies undertaken so far show the importance of the links between climate and air quality policies. They seem to be significant in terms of direct impact, but also highly relevant in terms of policy design. The economic studies of the co-benefits of GHG mitigation suggest that the avoided damages may compensate for a significant part of the costs of GHG emission reductions. Conclusions Meeting the EU objective of limiting global average temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels requires a peak in global greenhouse gas emissions within the next two decades. This means that early participation of developing countries in global emission control is needed, even under a significant strengthening of the commitments of Annex I countries under the Kyoto Protocol. 3.1. Key assumptions for the Per Capita Convergence and Multi-Stage cases 21

Significance, direction, rate, and drivers of change in total carbon dioxide -equivalent (CO 2 -eq.) greenhouse gas (GHG) ( − GHG CO 2 e ) emission from eight sectors of 41 Annex-I countries were quantified over the period of 1990-2012 using data-driven models. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test for trend analysis indicated an overall downward trend by 10.5% with a Sen's slope of À 613 Mt CO 2 -eq./year. The highest − GHG CO 2 e emission growth and reduction occurred with the sectors of energy, and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) at rates of 1.2 and À 1.0 gigatons (Gt) CO 2 -eq./year, respectively. Out of the 41 countries, 18 (44%) and 12 (29%) significantly reduced and increased their − GHG CO 2 e emission rates, respectively (po 0.1). The best-fit multiple non-linear regression (MNLR) model as a function of population density, gross domestic product per capita, fractional contribution of renewable energy to total energy production, country, and year elucidated 99.8% of variation in total − GHG CO 2 e emission and had the predictive power of 99.8% based on leave-one-out cross-validation.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

If dangerous and irreversible climatic events are to be avoided, global average temperature should not increase by more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. In order to achieve such a global target, a mitigation pathway has to limit global emissions to about 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. We want to investigate in this paper the radical change of the energy system that would be needed for entering the pathway for halving emission levels by applying a global analytical tool. A comprehensive data base with a global coverage including socioeconomic data as well as data on energy and emissions has been set up. By dividing the world into six countries and regions which account for two thirds of global emissions and a region for the rest of the world we investigate in an analytical framework the key drivers and parameters of the energy system which refer to population dynamics, economic activity, energy and carbon intensity. Based on assumptions about the diffusion and convergence of these key parameters we derive implications for long-term emission reduction targets.

Energies, 2020

The aim of this article is to provide an overview of greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials for 2030 based on the assessment of detailed sectoral studies. The overview updates a previous assessment that dates back more than ten years. We find a total emission reduction potential of 30–36 GtCO2e compared to a current-policies baseline of 61 GtCO2e. The energy production and conversion sector is responsible for about one third of this potential and the agriculture, buildings, forestry, industry, and transport sectors all contribute substantially to the total potential. The potential for 2030 is enough to bridge the gap towards emissions pathways that are compatible with a maximum global temperature rise of 1.5–2 °C compared to preindustrial levels.

The Energy Journal, 2006

First steps toward a broad climate agreement, such as the Kyoto Protocol, have focused on less than global geographic coverage. We consider instead a policy that is less comprehensive in term of greenhouse gases (GHGs), including only the non-CO 2 GHGs, but is geographically comprehensive. Abating non-CO 2 GHGs may be seen as less of a threat to economic development and therefore it may be possible to involve developing countries in such a policy even though they have resisted limits on CO 2 emissions. The policy we consider involves a GHG price of about $15 per ton carbon-equivalent (tce) levied only on the non-CO 2 GHGs and held at that level through the century. We estimate that such a policy would reduce the global mean surface temperature in 2100 by about 0.55º C; if only methane is covered that alone would achieve a reduction of 0.3º to 0.4º C. We estimate the Kyoto Protocol in its current form would achieve a 0.25º C reduction in 2100 if Parties to it maintained it as is through the century. Furthermore, we estimate the costs of the non-CO 2 policies to be a small fraction of the Kyoto policy. Whether as a next step to expand the Kyoto Protocol, or as a separate initiative running parallel to it, the world could well make substantial progress on limiting climate change by pursuing an agreement to abate the low cost non-CO 2 GHGs. The results suggest that it would be useful to proceed on global abatement of non-CO 2 GHGs so that lack of progress on negotiations to limit CO 2 does not allow these abatement opportunities to slip away.