Estimation of Threshold Distributions for Market Participation
2020, Sciences Po publications
Abstract
We develop a new method to estimate the parameters of threshold distributions for market participation based upon an agent-specific attribute and its decision outcome. This method requires few behavioral assumptions, is not data demanding, and can adapt to various parametric distributions. Monte Carlo simulations show that the algorithm successfully recovers three different parametric distributions and is resilient to assumption violations. An application to export decisions by French firms shows that threshold distributions are generally right-skewed. We then reveal the asymmetric effects of past policies over different quantiles of the threshold distributions.
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- fix a set of probability density functions F = f1, f2, . . . , fK to be used for the generation of the true thresholds and as priors (i.e. F) for the estimation of the threshold distribution parameters;
- using the information available to the social researcher (i.e., θ and χ), estimate via maximum likeli- hood the parameters Ω that characterize all the threshold distributions priors F;
- Monte Carlo Settings -Testing Assumption A4 The Monte Carlo simulations are carried out as follows: 1. fix a sufficiently large number of agents N ;
- simulate the true threshold data C T from the known distribution f k ; • generate also the noisy threshold data C ε = C T + ε c ;
- let the agents compute their individual decision outcomes χ according to Equation 12;
- using the information available to the social researcher, estimate via maximum likelihood the param- eters Ω that characterize the threshold distribution f k ;