Evolution of Transport Systems: Past and Future

FIRST PARAGRAPH Road vehicular travel is now in its second century. From almost zero vehicles on the world’s roads in 1910, total vehicle numbers (those with four or more wheels) have grown to 1003 million in 2007, of which 823 million – including sports utility vehicles in the US – were passenger vehicles (Altschuler et al., 1984:2; Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries [OPEC] 2010:81-90). By 2030, OPEC expects total vehicles to number over 1,700 million, including 1,370 million cars. US transport researchers Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon (2009:4) also foresee similar vehicle numbers in 2030.

2009

2009

The purpose of the study is to provide technical support to a debate on transport scenarios with a 20- and 40- year horizon, inter alia, by collecting and analysing information on transport long-term scenario forecasting, by developing long-term transport scenarios including modelling work and case studies, and by suggesting long-term objectives for the European transport policies. A comprehensive discussion of the drivers related to transport has been carried out in the study, resulting in a subdivision of the drivers in question into: external drivers, that is drivers external to the transport sector, where five main categories of drivers were identified (population, economic development, energy, technology development and social change); internal drivers, that is drivers internal to the transport sector e.g. infrastructure, vehicles and fuel development and transport impact on environment and society; and finally policy drivers, that is broad policy responses which affect the evo...

2004

This paper examines what can be known about transport technology and travel volumes out to the year 2050, mainly in the industrialised countries. Analysis of the past 50 years in transport shows that adoption of radically new technology has been comparatively slow. Travel volumes and vehicle fleets have risen roughly in step with national income. The next half-century, however, will likely see major changes in transport technology and fuels, in response to perceived constraints like oil depletion and global warming.

European Journal of Futures Research, 2015

In the transport sector, where change comes with inertia and investments are made with a long term perspective, decision makers need to consider how the future may look like in the very long term. The work presented in this paper is a scenario analysis focusing on the evolution of transport demand towards 2050, aiming to identify related challenges for European industrial and policy players. It follows up on the work of other recent attempts to study the future of transport from a European perspective, integrating findings from these studies, updating new trends and applying a specific scenario analysis methodology relying also on expert consultation. The diversity of the scenarios created unfolds aspects of the future transport system with rather different outcomes on issues like the volume of transport, travel motives, the prevalent spatial scales of transport and logistics, people's preferences towards different transport attributes, the relevancy of the State versus the private initiative in transport production, the level of competition, or the relative importance of environment and resource scarcity in setting an agenda for innovation and regulations. Beyond the subsequent challenges and opportunities identified in this work, the scenarios developed may be a useful basis for individual actors of distinct backgrounds to build their own specific futures, supporting them in defining strategies for the future.

2015

It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policy-making process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication.

2011

This report investigates how demographic and economic trends will affect future transport demands (the amount and type of travel people would choose), and their implications. Motor vehicle travel grew steadily during the Twentieth Century but has started to peak in most developed countries. Aging population, rising fuel prices, increasing urbanization, improving travel options, increasing health and environmental concerns, and changing consumer preferences are reducing demand for automobile travel and increasing demand for alternatives. Automobile travel will not disappear, but at the margin (compared with current travel patterns) many people would prefer to drive less and rely more on walking, cycling, public transport and telework, provided they are convenient, comfortable and affordable. This paper discusses ways that transport policies and planning practices can respond to these changing demands.

European Transport Research Review, 2014

Long-term, system-level foresight is needed when grand challenges are addressed in the transport sector. This paper explores how socio-technical transitions can be anticipated and taken into account in strategic transport planning. Techniques to integrate long-term foresight and understanding of socio-technical change in the transport system to support long-term transport policy targets are introduced. The proposed approach extends and combines transport system vision building to analysis of system-level changes on a three-level framework. It presents a novel, policy relevant application in the field of socio-technical transitions. The case is demonstrated with a vision of a safe and secure Finnish transport system in 2100. First, a consistent transport system vision was created with transport experts and authorities using a structured vision building process. Second, key topics involved in the transition from the existing socio-technical system to the envisioned future were analysed using the three-level framework. The demonstration proved successful, and it has contributed to the understanding of importance of the shared long-term perspective in transport system decision-making and strategic planning. It has also generated wider discussion on transport system visions, desired futures paths as well as measures and changes required among the Finnish transport systems stakeholders.

2018

This overview article for the special issue on 'Desirable Transport Futures' sets out with a brief introduction of the current development of the global transport system, suggesting that it remains unclear whether transport systems are heading towards desirable change. This desirability is defined as a reduction in the system's negative externalities, including accidents, congestion, pollutants and/or noise, while retaining its functionality. There is evidence that transport externalities continue to grow with an increasingly mobile and growing global population. Against this background, the article discusses what may constitute more desirable transport futures, as well as the barriers that have to be overcome to move towards such futures. The article concludes that transport governance will be essential to far-reaching change, and that greater focus has to be placed on individual and societal socio-psychological perspectives shaping mobility consumption. Nine papers contained in this special issue provide in-depth analyses of transport systems, as well as insight into how these may be changed in more systemic ways. A concluding research agenda is offered that outlines a number of innovative approaches researchers may pursue as part of further efforts to engender desirable transport futures.