Climate and Hydrologic Change Assessment for Georgia

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 2016

Ab stract-Using ob ser va tional data from 50 weather sta tions in Geor gia for the pe riod of 1936-2013, the fol low ing cli mate in di ces of mois ture re gime are stud ied: max i mum 1-day pre cip i ta tion, max i mum 5-day pre cip i ta tion, the sim ple daily in ten sity in dex, the num ber of days with pre cip i ta tion equal to not less than 10, 20, and 50 mm, num ber of con sec u tive wet and dry days. Geoinformation maps of the spatial struc ture are plot ted, and the dy nam ics of these in di ces is stud ied for the pe riod of global warm ing. Ex pected changes in the mois ture re gime in dif fer ent phys io graphic re gions in Geor gia are as sessed.

Scientific Reports, 2020

This study uses a high-resolution, process-based modeling framework to assess the impacts of changing climate on water resources for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the southeastern United States. A 33-member ensemble of hydrologic projections was generated using 3 distributed hydrologic models (Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, Variable Infiltration Capacity, and Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model) of different complexity. These hydrologic models were driven by dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected future climate simulations from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario, with 40 years each in baseline (1966-2005) and future (2011-2050) periods. The hydroclimate response, in general, projects an increase in mean seasonal precipitation, runoff, and streamflow. The high and low flows are projected to increase and decrease, respectively, in general, suggesting increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events and intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The uncertainty associated with the ensemble hydroclimate response, analyzed through an analysis of variance technique, suggests that the choice of climate model is more critical than the choice of hydrologic model for the studied region. this study provides in-depth insights of hydroclimate response and associated uncertainties to support informed decisions by water resource managers.

2000

The work described herein aims to assess the impacts of potential climate change on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Talapoosa (ACT) river basins in the Southeastern US. The assessment addresses the potential impacts on watershed hydrology (soil moisture and streamflow) and on major water uses including water supply, drought management, hydropower, environmental and ecological protection, recreation, and navigation. This investigation develops new methods, establishes and uses an integrated modeling framework, and reaches several important conclusions that bear upon river basin planning and management. Although the specific impacts vary significantly with the choice of the GCM scenario, some general conclusions are that (1) soil moisture and streamflow variability is expected to increase, and (2) flexible and adaptive water sharing agreements, management strategies, and institutional processes are best suited to cope with the uncertainty associated with future climate scenarios.

1999

The implications of global warming for the performance of six U.S. water resource systems are evaluated. The six case study sites represent a range of geographic and hydrologic, as well as institutional and social settings. Large, multi-reservoir systems (Columbia River, Missouri River, Apalachicola-Chatahoochee-Flint (ACF) Rivers), small, one or two reservoir systems (Tacoma and Boston) and medium size systems (Savannah River) are represented. The river basins range from mountainous to low relief and semi-humid to semi-arid, and the system operational purposes range from predominantly municipal to broadly multipurpose. The studies inferred, using a chain of climate downscaling, hydrologic and water resources systems models, the sensitivity of six water resources systems to changes in precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. The climate change scenarios used in this study are based on results from transient climate change experiments performed with coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. An earlier doubled-CO 2 scenario from one of the GCMs was also used in the evaluation. The GCM scenarios were transferred to the local level using a simple downscaling approach that scales local weather variables by fixed monthly ratios (for precipitation) and fixed monthly shifts (for temperature). For those river basins where snow plays an important role in the current climate hydrology (Tacoma, Columbia, Missouri and, to a lesser extent, Boston) changes in temperature result in important changes in seasonal streamflow hydrographs. In these systems, spring snowmelt peaks are reduced and winter flows increase, on average. Changes in precipitation are generally reflected in the annual total runoff volumes more than in the seasonal shape of the hydrographs. In the Savannah and ACF systems, where snow plays a minor hydrological role, changes in hydrological response are linked more directly to temperature and precipitation changes. Effects on system performance varied from system to system, from GCM to GCM, and for each system operating objective (such as hydropower production, municipal and industrial supply, flood control, recreation, navigation and instream flow protection). Effects were generally smaller for the transient scenarios than for the doubled CO 2 scenario. In terms of streamflow, one of the transient scenarios tended to have increases at most sites, while another tended to have decreases at most sites. The third showed no general consistency over the six sites. Generally, the water resource system performance effects were determined by the hydrologic changes and the amount of buffering provided by the system's storage capacity. The effects of demand growth and other plausible future operational considerations were evaluated as well. For most sites, the effects of these non-climatic effects on future system performance would about equal or exceed the effects of climate change over system planning horizons.

Journal of Hydrology, 2013

The ability to predict spatial variation in streamflow at the watershed scale is essential to understanding the potential impacts of projected climate change on aquatic systems in this century. However, problems associated with single outlet-based model calibration and validation procedures can confound the prediction of spatial variation in streamflow under future climate change scenarios. The goal of this study is to calibrate and validate a distributed hydrologic model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), using distributed streamflow data (1978-2009), and to assess the potential impacts of climate change on future streamflow (2051-2060 and 2086-2095) for the Rock River (RRW), Illinois River (IRW), Kaskaskia River (KRW), and Wabash River (WRW) watersheds in the Midwestern United States, primarily in Illinois. The potential impacts of climate change on future water resources are assessed using SWAT streamflow simulations driven by projections from nine global climate models (GCMs) under a maximum of three SRES scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1). Results from model validation indicate reasonable spatial and temporal predictions of streamflow, suggesting that a multi-site calibration strategy is necessary to accurately predict spatial variation in watershed hydrology. Compared with past streamflow records, predicted future streamflow based on climate change scenarios will tend to increase in the winter but decrease in the summer. According to 26 GCM projections, annual streamflows from 2051-2060 (2086-2095) are projected to decrease up to 45.2% (61.3%), 48.7% (49.8%), 48.7% (56.6%), and 41.1% (44.6%) in the RRW, IRW, KRW, and WRW, respectively. In addition, under the projected changes in climate, intra-and inter-annual streamflow variability generally does not increase over time. Results suggest that increased temperature could change the rate of evapotranspiration and the form of precipitation, subsequently influencing monthly streamflow patterns. Moreover, the spatially varying pattern of streamflow variability under future climate conditions suggests different buffering capabilities among regions. As such, regionally specific management strategies are necessary to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change and preserve aquatic ecosystems and water resources.

Water Resources Research, 2007

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J Am Water Resour Assoc, 1999

Climate change has the potential to have dramatic effects on the agricultural sector nationally and internationally as documented in many research papers. This paper reports on research that was focused on a specific crop growing area to demonstrate how farm managers might respond to climate-induced yield changes and the implications of these responses for agricultural water use. The Hadley model was used to generate climate scenarios for important agricultural areas of Georgia in 2030 and 2090. Linked crop response models indicated generally positive yield changes, as increased temperatures were associated with increased precipitation and CO2. Using a farm management model, differences in climate-induced yield impacts among crops led to changes in crop mix and associated water use; non-irrigated cropland received greater benefit since irrigated land was already receiving adequate moisture. Model results suggest that farm managers will increase cropping intensity by decreasing fallowing and increasing double cropping; corn acreage decreased dramatically, peanuts decreased moderately and cotton and winter wheat increased. Water use on currently irrigated cropland fell. The potential for increased water use through conversion of agriculturally important, but currently non-irrigated, growing areas is substantial. (KEY TERMS: simulation modeling; crop response; agricultural economics and farm management; agricultural water use; irrigation; multidisciplinary.

Journal of The American Water Resources Association, 1999

Climate change has the potential to have dramatic effects on the agricultural sector nationally and internationally as documented in many research papers. This paper reports on research that was focused on a specific crop growing area to demonstrate how farm managers might respond to climate-induced yield changes and the implications of these responses for agricultural water use. The Hadley model was used to generate climate scenarios for important agricultural areas of Georgia in 2030 and 2090. Linked crop response models indicated generally positive yield changes, as increased temperatures were associated with increased precipitation and CO2. Using a farm management model, differences in climate-induced yield impacts among crops led to changes in crop mix and associated water use; non-irrigated cropland received greater benefit since irrigated land was already receiving adequate moisture. Model results suggest that farm managers will increase cropping intensity by decreasing fallowing and increasing double cropping; corn acreage decreased dramatically, peanuts decreased moderately and cotton and winter wheat increased. Water use on currently irrigated cropland fell. The potential for increased water use through conversion of agriculturally important, but currently non-irrigated, growing areas is substantial. (KEY TERMS: simulation modeling; crop response; agricultural economics and farm management; agricultural water use; irrigation; multidisciplinary.) et al.

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2006

Climate and land use affect water quantity and quality, however, the complex relations of climate and land use regarding flow and instream nutrient levels have yet to be elucidated. This study aims to assess the hydrologic effects of different land-use and climatic regimes in the Lower Great Miami River Basin. The modelling results from BASINS showed that, as expected, agricultural lands and the wettest scenario yielded the highest amount of streamflow, fecal coliform, and nutrient loadings. But, it was the dry scenario (+2 ᑻC, ǁ20% precipitation of the current average climatic conditions in SW Ohio), instead of the driest scenario (+4ᑻC, ǁ20% precipitation), that produced the highest daily nutrient concentrations. When the future land-use and climate scenarios were coupled, the worst situation was found under the current land use and the wettest condition. Hence, a change in land-use pattern may help to alleviate the adverse hydrologic impacts of climate change.

International Journal of Climatology, 2018