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Outline

Title
Abstract
Historical Background
Literature Review on Arab Spring Outcomes
Theories and Hypotheses
Study Design
Regression Analysis
Conclusion
References

Arab Spring One Revolution different Outcomes

Profile image of Aytaj MukhtarzadaAytaj Mukhtarzada

Abstract

There is not one explanation for the source of revolutions that took place in late 2010 early 2011 in Arab World. Liberalists argue combination of growing inequality produced revolutionary aspiration. Marxists believe that location of Arab states in the capitalist world system produced the revolt. Some scholars believe these revolts to be a reaction to the rapid growth of social media in the region leading to collective action. Others ascribe them to the emergence of a civil. There are still some other authors who explain these revolutions by reference youth unemployment which fueled uprisings. The research, however, was not questioning why revolutions in Arab countries did happen. What was being investigated, rather, is why they ended up differently in different Arab countries. That is, how dictatorship in some of the Arab countries could be overthrown and give a rise to democracy, e.g. Tunisia, whilst it failed to do so in some other Arab countries leading to civil wars (Syria), military splits, or even humanitarian intervention (Libya). This research advanced four hypotheses derived from different theories. Hypothesis one, which was based on the Third Wave of Immanuel Huntington and Stepan's operationalization, argued that democracy in Arab Spring was more likely to consolidate in states that had experienced three consecutive years of democratic level equal or greater than +4. The second hypotheses derived from Lipset's modernization theory and Przeworski's operationalization, argued that it was economic growth that determined outcomes of the Arab Spring leading to democracy in some countries and to the civil war in some others. The third hypothesis was based on Moore's argument of "no bourgeoisieno democracy" and argued that the larger the number of labor force participants in industry sector, the greater probability of democracy to be achieved. Finally, the fourth hypothesis of this research argued that democracy in Arab Spring was more likely to be achieved in countries where the military had less v incentives to stay loyal to the regime. In order to test these hypotheses, the research applied comparative case studies method and contrasted relevant indicators in the countries in question in the ear of 2011. Additionally, the research questions whether there is correlation between democracy level in Arab World and GDP per capita, Military expenditure, and the number of employment level in industry sector in general. For testing this hypothesis, we applied regression analysis taking the figures in a time range from 1960 to 2016. Due to the lack of data for independent variable in the case of Libya, and lack of variation in dependent variable in this country, we excluded Libya from regression analysis, applying only three of initial cases. The research found out whilst military expenditure and GDP per capita were significant in determination of democracy level in Arab countries throughout the history (since 1960), only military choice affected by rational and moral incentives was significant in determination of the outcome of Arab Spring. Despite the limitations of the research, the findings of it are very interesting, since they reveal that, although there were two crucial variables affecting democracy throughout the history, only one of them remained crucial in 2011.

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