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Outline

Title
Abstract
Overview
Introduction 1
Approach and Scope
Possible Future Climate
Summary of Model Results
Future Variability of Pacific Climate
Case Study: Yakima Valley Irrigated Agriculture
Water Resources Objectives
Case Study: Demand for Water in Portland
Case Study: Seattle Public Utilities
Summary of Institutional Issues
Climate Analysis and Prediction
Policy Implications
Climate Data
Methods
1 Climate Analysis
References
All Topics
Geography

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change, Pacific Northwest

Profile image of Philip MotePhilip Mote

1999

https://doi.org/10.6069/BZFIOF5C
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Abstract

Experience of the recent past illustrates the impacts that the climate variations have on the Pacific Northwest, and illustrates that there are both winners and loser when the climate is different from the "average." The mild winter and spring of 1997-98 saw an early snow melt, which strained regional water supplies during the summer and fall months. An especially warm and dry summer, coupled with the early melt, led to exceptionally low flows and high temperatures in many Northwest streams. These conditions in turn caused sever difficulties for salmon. However, 1997-98 also had benefits for the region, which avoided the damage and disruption caused by heavy snow fall and winter flooding during the previous two winters. Climate is not a constant, and yet many aspects of human infrastructure and activities are planned with the assumption that it is constant. But what happens when climate produces a surprise? What if, furthermore, there are long-term changes in climate? Humans have altered the composition of Earth's atmosphere to such an extent that climate itself appears to be changing. The consequences of a changing climate may be beneficial for some places and activities, and detrimental for others. This report describes the possible impacts of human-induced climate change and of natural climate variability like El Niño, focusing on the water resources, salmon, forests, and coasts of the Pacific Northwest (PNW). It has been prepared largely by the Climate Impacts Group (CIG) at the University of Washington. The CIG, under the direction of Professor Edward L. Miles, is an interdisciplinary group of researchers from the physical, biological, and social sciences working together to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on the Northwest. Looking at the recent past, much of the climate history of the PNW can be described by a few recurring patterns. The strongest pattern highlights the tendency for winter climate to be either relatively cool and wet or relatively warm and dry. Cool-wet winters are generally associated with increased risks of flooding and landslides, abundant summer water supply, more abundant salmon, reduced risk of forest fires, and improved tree growth (except at high elevation). Warm-dry winters are often followed by summer water shortages, less abundant salmon, and increased risk of forest fires.

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Future climate in the Pacific Northwest
Philip Mote

Climatic Change, 2010

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Flows of the future—How will climate change affect streamflows in the Pacific Northwest?
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Climate impacts on Pacific salmon : bibliography
Brian E Riddell

2010

The long-term outlook for salmon returns to Alaska. Alaska Fish. Res. Bull. 10(2): 83-94. With the exception of some western Alaska stocks, Alaska's salmon populations are numerically healthy. However, even fisheries on abundant stocks are suffering economically due to sharp declines in the value of the catch. The abundance of Alaskan salmon stocks has fluctuated greatly, both in modern times and prehistorically. These fluctuations are thought to be caused by multi-decadal changes in environmental conditions over large areas that affect many other species as well as salmon. Forecasts of salmon returns are not very reliable, and the potential for significant improvement in their accuracy is low in the short term. A viable fishing industry must be able to adapt to dramatic, persistent, and unanticipated changes in harvest levels. Nonetheless, Alaska's salmon stocks should continue to produce healthy harvests for the foreseeable future, barring significant damage to their habitat either via local activities or global warming. Adkison, M.D., R.M. Peterman, et al. 1996. Alternative models of climatic effects on sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) productivity in Bristol Bay, Alaska, and the Fraser River, British Columbia. Fish. Oceanogr. 5(3/4): 137-152. We compare alternative models of sockeye salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka, productivity (returns per spawner) using more than 30 years of catch and escapement data for Bristol Bay, Alaska, and the Fraser River, British Columbia. The models examined include several alternative forms of models that incorporate climatic influences as well as models not based on climate. For most stocks, a stationary stock-recruitment relationship explains very little of the interannual variation in productivity. In Bristol Bay, productivity covaries among stocks and appears to be strongly related to fluctuations in climate. The best model for Bristol Bay sockeye involved a change in the 1970s in the parameters of the Ricker stock-recruitment curve; the stocks generally became more productive. In contrast, none of the models of Fraser River stocks that we examined explained much of the variability in their productivity. Anderson, D.M., S.A. Shankle, et al. 1993. Valuing effects of climate change and fishery enhancement on Chinook salmon. Contemporary Policy Issues 2: 82-94. This paper represents a continuing multidisciplinary analysis of species preservation and global change. It explores the economic cost of a potential regional warming's effect on the spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshcawytscha). Climate change and planned habitat improvements impact the production and economic value of spring Chinook salmon in the Yakima River tributary of the Columbia River in eastern Washington. A Chinook salmon's total economic value includes the summation of the existence, commercial, recreational, andcapital values. The analysis here applies currently available data on these four components of value to estimated changes in Chinook salmon population resulting from regional warming. Results show that the estimated change in economic value per fish associated with reducing one fish run is significant. Anderson, J. 1998. Decadal climate cycles and declining Columbia River salmon. Sustainable Fisheries Conference Proceedings. 22 pp. (Available at http://www.cbr.washington.edu/papers/jim/victoria.pdf). This paper explores the effects of the interaction of anthropogenic trends and climate cycles on salmon declines in the Columbia and Snake river basins. A basic population model, including anthropogenic and environmental factors, is discussed and literature relating decadal scale climate patterns and the response of the North Pacific ecosystem is reviewed. From this background a ratchet-like decline in Columbia and Snake river salmon production resulted from the interactions of human activities and climatic regime shifts. These interactions are illustrated using hundred year patterns in spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) catch, the Columbia River hydroelectric generating capacity, and a climate index characterizing the shifts between a cool/wet regime favorable to West Coast salmon and a warm/dry regime unfavorable to West Coast salmon. A half century correlation of the climate index and Chinook catch suggest that a favorable climate regime counteracted detrimental impacts of hydrosystem development between 1945 and 1977, while an unfavorable climate regime negated beneficial effects of salmon mitigation efforts after 1977. This hypothesis is elaborated by a comparison of changes in the climate index relative to changes in Snake River salmon survival indicators.

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Potential effects of climate change on stand development in the Pacific Northwest
Virginia H Dale

Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 1989

1989. Potential effects of climate change on stand development in the Pacific Northwest. Can. J. For. Res. 19: 1581Res. 19: -1590 Long-term climate and stand structure records and projections from a simulation model are used to explore effects of predicted changes in temperature on forest development in the Pacific Northwest. Few climate trends have occurred during the past 92 years, although there have been variations in September temperatures. The lack of climate trends makes it impossible to relate past changes in stand development to climate. Measures of stand development from six long-term forest plots over the past 7 decades are typical of Douglas-fir stands: stem density declines, leaf area stabilizes, aboveground biomass increases, and shifts in size distribution occur. These changes are consistent with patterns of natural succession. A computer model projected forest development under two climate scenarios: current temperature conditions and temperature warming (such as that predicted under a doubling of atmospheric CO 2). The model predicted changes in species composition, leaf area, and stem density in response to temperature increases. Total aboveground biomass is not sensitive to the simulated temperature alterations. Predicted biomass stability suggests that the Pacific Northwest forest would continue to store large amounts of carbon in the living trees even with climatic warming. Therefore, the predicted temperature change would not alter the role of the Pacific Northwest forests as a major storage location of terrestrial carbon. Changes in precipitation patterns or in disturbance frequency or intensity that might occur with climatic warming could alter these predictions. DALE, V. H., et FRANKLIN, J. F. 1989. Potential effects of climate change on stand development in the Pacific Northwest. Can. J. For. Res. 19 : 1581-1590. Des donnees a long terme sur le climat et la structure des peuplements ainsi que des projections etablies a l'aide d'un modele de simulation ont ete utilisees pour etudier l'effet des changements anticipós de temperature sur le developpement des forets du nord-ouest du Pacifique. Peu de modifications climatiques sont survenues depuis 92 ans meme s'il y a eu quelques variations dans les temperatures du mois de septembre. II est impossible d'etablir un lien entre les modifications passees dans le developpement d'un peuplement et le climat en l'absence de changements climatiques.

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