Hugo Loaiciga

University of California, Santa Barbara, Geography, Faculty Member

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Papers by Hugo Loaiciga

Evaluation of water shortage crisis in the Middle East and possible remedies

Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology-Aqua, 2019

Water resources in the Middle East region are becoming scarce, while millions of people already d... more Water resources in the Middle East region are becoming scarce, while millions of people already do not have access to adequate water for drinking and sanitary purposes. Water resources depletion has become a significant problem in this region that is likely to worsen. Current research by remote sensing analysis indicates a descending trend of water storage in the Middle East region, where agriculture plays a crucial role in socio-economic life. This study introduces an approach quantifying water depletion in the Middle Eastern countries, which are being challenged in the management of their water resources. Furthermore, this paper presents results of a survey assessing the status of water use and supply in Middle Eastern countries and outlines some potential remedies. Specifically, Iran's water use is evaluated and compared with its neighbors'. The water equivalent anomaly (WEA) and total water storage (TWS) depletion are two indexes of water scarcity calculated for Middle E...

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Optimal design of groundwater-level monitoring networks

Journal of Hydroinformatics, 2017

Groundwater monitoring plays a significant role in groundwater management. This study presents an... more Groundwater monitoring plays a significant role in groundwater management. This study presents an optimization method for designing groundwater-level monitoring networks. The proposed design method was used in the Eshtehard aquifer, in central Iran. Three scenarios were considered to optimize the locations of the observation wells: (1) designing new monitoring networks, (2) redesigning existing monitoring networks, and (3) expanding existing monitoring networks. The kriging method was utilized to determine groundwater levels at non-monitoring locations for preparing the design data base. The optimization of the groundwater monitoring network had the objectives of (1) minimizing the root mean square error and (2) minimizing the number of wells. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) was applied to optimize the network. Inverse distance weighting interpolation was used in NSGA-II to estimate the groundwater levels while optimizing network design. Results of the study in...

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The Enhanced Honey-Bee Mating Optimization Algorithm for Water Resources Optimization

Water Resources Management, 2016

Evolutionary and meta-heuristic algorithms are widely used to solve water resources optimization ... more Evolutionary and meta-heuristic algorithms are widely used to solve water resources optimization problems. In this context, the honey bee mating optimization (HBMO) algorithm, inspired by the mating ritual of honey bees, is a reliable and efficient algorithm. The HBMO algorithm is modified in this work leading to the Enhanced HBMO (EHBMO) algorithm. The EHBMO is then applied to solve several unconstrained/constrained mathematical benchmark functions and a multi-reservoir problem. The performance of the EHBMO is compared with those of the elitist genetic algorithm (EGA) and the HBMO algorithm. The results show that the EHBMO achieves a better solution in a smaller number of functional evaluations and with less variance of results about global optima in comparison with the EGA and the HBMO algorithm.

Optimal operation of reservoir systems with the symbiotic organisms search (SOS) algorithm

Journal of Hydroinformatics, 2017

This work introduces the symbiotic organisms search (SOS) evolutionary algorithm to the optimizat... more This work introduces the symbiotic organisms search (SOS) evolutionary algorithm to the optimization of reservoir operation. Unlike the genetic algorithm (GA) and the water cycle algorithm (WCA) the SOS does not require specification of algorithmic parameters. The solution effectiveness of the GA, SOS, and WCA was assessed with a single-reservoir and a multi-reservoir optimization problem. The SOS proved superior to the GA and the WCA in optimizing the objective functions of the two reservoir systems. In the single reservoir problem, with global optimum value of 1.213, the SOS, GA, and WCA determined 1.240, 1.535, and 1.262 as the optimal solutions, respectively. The superiority of SOS was also verified in a hypothetical four-reservoir optimization problem. In this case, the GA, WCA, and SOS in their best performance among 10 solution runs converged to 97.46%, 99.56%, and 99.86% of the global optimal solution. Besides its better performance in approximating optima, the SOS avoided p...

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Fulfillment of river environmental flow: applying Nash theory for quantitative‐qualitative conflict resolution in reservoir operation

Water and Environment Journal, Oct 26, 2020

The construction of reservoirs for water supply alters the riverine ecology and changes water qua... more The construction of reservoirs for water supply alters the riverine ecology and changes water quality. It is therefore imperative to estimate and provide the riverine environmental flow requirement to prevent irreversible environmental damage and to maintain suitable water quality. Water releases from reservoirs constitute the means for meeting environmental flow and water quality requirements downstream from reservoirs. These requirements can be realized through modification of the reservoir operation programs by reallocating a percentage of the reservoir releases otherwise dedicated to quantitative objectives. This is done in this study by considering the qualitative (i.e., pertaining to water quality) objectives alongside quantitative objectives of reservoir releases in order to achieve a general coverage for an operating program that balances in the most rational manner the interests of riverine environmental protection and quantitative functions. The case study area is located in the river reach between the Gotvand reservoir and Shooshtar city in the Gotvand-Karoon reservoir-river system in Iran. The range of riverine environmental flow is calculated in the study river reach with hydrologic methods. Water quality is simulated and included reservoir operation with the QUAL-2K simulation model. The existing quantitative and qualitative objectives for reservoir operation are determined and classified. The

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Multi-criteria Decision-making Approach for Environmental Impact Assessment to Reduce the Adverse Effects Of Dams

Water Resources Management, Aug 19, 2021

Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) of development projects are necessary to minimize negativ... more Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) of development projects are necessary to minimize negative impacts and maximize benefits. The objective of this paper is to determine the best strategy to mitigate the adverse effects of dam construction with Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) method based on results of EIAs. For this purpose, a group of experts in various pertinent fields was formed, and according to field observations, the main criteria set for evaluating dam construction effects and improvement strategies were proposed by experts group. The main evaluation criteria are defined in terms of impacts on (1) natural resources, (2) ecosystems, (3) socio-cultural institutions, and (4) economics and their sub-criteria. The improvement alternatives are: (1) relocation of city waste disposal, (2) forestry and watershed management, (3) construction of a sewage collection network and treatment plant, and (4) controlling the use of pesticide and fertilizer in agricultural lands and optimizing their type and method of use. Each of sub-criteria were weighted with Integrated Determination of Objective Criteria Weights (IDOCRIW) and the improvement strategies are ranked using the Combined Compromise Solution (COCOSO) method. This paper’s methodology is evaluated with the Nohob Earth Dam in Qazvin province, Iran. Results show that socio-cultural criterion has the largest weight. Results of COCOSO demonstrate the alternative of relocation of city waste disposal ranks as the first priority.

State-of-art of genetic programming applications in water-resources systems analysis

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, Jan 2, 2020

Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) have become competitive solvers of a wide variety of water-resource... more Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) have become competitive solvers of a wide variety of water-resources optimization problems. Genetic programming (GP) has become a leading EA since its inception in 1985. This paper reviews the state-ofthe-art of GP and its applications in water-resources systems analysis. A comprehensive knowledge about GP's theory and modeling approach is essential for its successful application in water-resources systems analysis. This review presents variants of GP that have been proven useful in various applications to water resources problems. Several examples of applications of GP in water-resources systems analysis are herein presented. This review reveals GP's capability and superiority compared to other conventional methods, which makes it suitable for solving a wide variety of water-related problems including rainfallrunoff modeling, streamflow sediment prediction, flood prediction and routing, evaporation and evapotranspiration forecasting, reservoir operation, groundwater modeling, water quality modeling, water demand forecasting, and water distribution systems.

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Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science

Closure to “Application of a Hybrid Optimization Method in Muskingum Parameter Estimation” by Omid Bozorg Haddad, Farzan Hamedi, Elahe Fallah-Mehdipour, Hosein Orouji, and Miguel A. Mariño

Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering-asce, Sep 1, 2016

Closure to “Investigation of Reservoir Qualitative Behavior Resulting from Sudden Entry of Biological Pollutant” by Omid Bozorg-Haddad, Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh, Mohsen Ali-Hamzeh, and Miguel A. Mariño

Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering-asce, Jul 1, 2016

Discussion of “Multiobjective Management of Water Allocation to Sustainable Irrigation Planning and Optimal Cropping Pattern” by R. Lalehzari, S. Boroomand Nasab, H. Moazed, and A. Haghighi

Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering-asce, Apr 1, 2017

Discussion of “Optimization of Phenol Removal Using Ti/PbO2 Anode with Response Surface Methodology” by C. García-Gómez, J. A. Vidales-Contreras, J. Nápoles-Armenta, and P. Gortáres-Moroyoqui

Journal of Environmental Engineering, Sep 1, 2017

Intense extreme hydro-climatic events take a toll on society

Natural Hazards, Apr 20, 2021

In March 2019, the Iranian meteorological organization warned of the formation of several dense p... more In March 2019, the Iranian meteorological organization warned of the formation of several dense precipitation systems throughout the country. This was followed by a chain of storm events that ended up with three major floods with heavy damages, including at least 78 fatalities. Reportedly, within the first 48 h of the storm, the cumulative rainfall reached about 400 mm. Soon after, 23 provinces of Iran received a severe storm warning and an imminent flood alert as the second wave of rainfall was forming in the region. What was striking about these events was that, according to the historical data, the local rainfall rarely caused such extreme floods, indicating the dominant role of human alteration to natural cycles in these damaging flood events. Extreme hydro-climatic events are unavoidable, yet damages by such events are, to some extent, preventable. With proper, efficient, and timely decision making, the threat of natural hazards can be reduced or avoided. On the other hand, hasty and short-sighted decisions can be costly in the face of a natural catastrophe. This study evaluates the 2019 flood events in Iran and assesses the potential causes that amplified the damages, in search for clues to prevent future flood losses.

Integration of Gray System Theory with AHP Decision-Making for Wastewater Reuse Decision-Making

Journal of Hazardous, Toxic, and Radioactive Waste, Jul 1, 2021

Abstract The existence of uncertainties in decision-making has given rise to multicriteria decisi... more

Investigating the performance of data mining, lumped, and distributed models in runoff projected under climate change

Journal of Hydrology

Biogeography-Based Optimization

John Wiley & Sons, Inc. eBooks, Sep 8, 2017

Biogeography is the study of the geographical dis tribution of biological organisms. Mathematical... more Biogeography is the study of the geographical dis tribution of biological organisms. Mathematical equations that govern the distribution of organisms were first discovered and developed during the 1960s. The mindset of the engineer is that we can learn from nature. This motivates the application of bio geography to optimization problems. Just as the mathematics of biological genetics inspired the development of genetic algorithms (GAs), and the mathematics of biological neurons inspired the development of artificial neural networks, this paper considers the mathematics of biogeography as the basis for the development of a new field: biogeography-based optimization (BRO). We discuss natural biogeography and its mathematics, and then discuss how it can be used to solve optimization problems. We see that BBO has features in common with other biology-based optimization methods, such as GAs and particle swarm optimization (PSO). This makes BBO applicable to many of the same types of problems that GAs and PSO are used for, namely, high-dimension problems with multiple local optima. However, BBO also has some features that are unique among biology-based optimization methods. We demonstrate the performance of BBO on a set of 14 standard benchmarks and compare it with seven other biology-based opti mization algorithms. We also demonstrate BBO on a real-world sensor selection problem for aircraft engine health estimation.

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Presentation and validation of induction irrigation as an efficient and profitable method

Water Science & Technology: Water Supply, Apr 6, 2020

The scarcity of water resources along with population growth and low precipitation exert stresses... more The scarcity of water resources along with population growth and low precipitation exert stresses on the agricultural sectors of arid regions. The evapotranspiration losses due to water use in the warm months of the year are high for walnut production, for example, which is one of the main Iranian agricultural exports. Also, the water losses occurring in flood irrigation, surface storage, and water conveyance, and the high costs of drip irrigation increase the need for efficient irrigation methods. This study proposes induction irrigation as a novel method for preventing evapotranspiration losses, increasing water-use efficiency, and raising agricultural profitability. Induction irrigation relies on recharge and extraction wells to inject treated sewage and withdraw groundwater, respectively, and create a saturated zone in the plants' root area. This paper demonstrates that induction irrigation applied to walnut orchards would lower costs and water losses, avoid surface pollution, and increase agricultural profitability.

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Evaluation of cooperative and non-cooperative game theoretic approaches for water allocation of transboundary rivers

Scientific Reports, Mar 7, 2022

Efficient water allocation in a transboundary river basin is a complex issue in water resources m... more Efficient water allocation in a transboundary river basin is a complex issue in water resources management. This work develops a framework for the allocation of transboundary river water between the countries located in the river basin to evaluate the characteristics of allocation approaches. The allocation of river water is obtained based on initial-water conditions, cooperative, and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches. The initial-conditions water allocation approach assigns 34, 40, and 26% of the Harirud River flow to Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkmenistan, respectively. The game-theoretic cooperative approach assigns 36, 42, and 22% of the river flow to Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkmenistan, respectively. The non-cooperative game-theoretic approach establishes that the most stable water allocation was 42, 38, and 20% of the Harirud River flow for Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkmenistan, respectively. Human and agricultural water-stress criteria are used to evaluate the water allocations in the Harirud River basin. The criterion of human water stress has the largest influence in Iran, and the criterion of agricultural water stress has the smallest influence in Afghanistan. This work's results indicate the initial-conditions water allocation approach favors Turkmenistan, whereas the cooperative and the non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches favors Iran and Afghanistan, respectively. The results show that the priorities of each country governs water allocation, and cooperation is shown to be necessary to achieve sustainable development. Water management in transboundary river basins involves technical and scientific assessments, and legal, economic, cultural, social, and historical factors that cross political and cultural boundaries. Transboundary river management can improve food security, economic growth, adaptation to climate change, international trade, public health, and international cooperation (Mirzaei-Nodoushan et al. 1). Management of transboundary river basins requires adaptive management which means the countries can adapt to changes and stresses of water resources and reduce their effect on sustainability (Wolf 2). Sustainable development is an effort to balance between economic evolutions, environmental issues, and social and welfare needs of a region in the present without damaging the future generations' resources (Karimian et al. 3). The challenges of the water crisis increase in shared water regions, and water managers must cooperate to manage water in a beneficial manner. Determining the benefits from the cooperation between countries and how they are distributed among the stakeholders is a nontrivial task in transboundary river basin management (Wolf 2). To this end, it is necessary to increase the institutional capacity so that beneficial water management and water use can be established at all levels of society, and to ensure that governance organizations become active and effective in decision-making. The allocation of water resources among transboundary stakeholders has been approached from various perspectives (Bozorg-Haddad et al. 4). The most common solutions for water allocation are optimization methods and game theory approaches (Akbari-Alashti et al. 5). As an example, Kazemi et al. 6 reported a multi-objective optimization model for the allocation of water resources in the Sefidrood River Basin, Iran. The objectives of their model were to maximize revenue and minimize the Gini index. The results showed that the Gini index increases (an increase of injustice) with the increasing number of dams. The genesis of game theory is traced to von Neumann and Morgenstern 7 , who provided a mathematical method for the analysis of human behavior in strategic decision-making by competitive or cooperative entities.

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Assessment of global hydro-social indicators in water resources management

Scientific Reports, Aug 31, 2021

Water is a vital element that plays a central role in human life. This study assesses the status ... more Water is a vital element that plays a central role in human life. This study assesses the status of indicators based on water resources availability relying on hydro-social analysis. The assessment involves countries exhibiting decreasing trends in per capita renewable water during 2005-2017. Africa, America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania encompass respectively 48, 35, 43, 20, and 5 countries with distinct climatic conditions. Four hydro-social indicators associated with rural society, urban society, technology and communication, and knowledge were estimated with soft-computing methods [i.e., artificial neural networks, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, and gene expression programming (GEP)] for the world's continents. The GEP model's performance was the best among the computing methods in estimating hydro-social indicators for all the world's continents based on statistical criteria [correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error]. The values of RMSE for GEP models for the ratio of rural to urban population (PRUP), population density, number of internet users and education index parameters equaled (0

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Sensitivity of non-conditional climatic variables to climate-change deep uncertainty using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation

Scientific Reports, Feb 2, 2022

There is substantial evidence suggesting climate change is having an adverse impact on the world'... more There is substantial evidence suggesting climate change is having an adverse impact on the world's water resources. One must remember, however, that climate change is beset by uncertainty. It is therefore meaningful for climate change impact assessments to be conducted with stochastic-based frameworks. The degree of uncertainty about the nature of a stochastic phenomenon may differ from one another. Deep uncertainty refers to a situation in which the parameters governing intervening probability distributions of the stochastic phenomenon are themselves subjected to some degree of uncertainty. In most climatic studies, however, the assessment of the role of deep-uncertain nature of climate change has been limited. This work contributes to fill this knowledge gap by developing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis involving Bayes' theorem that merges the stochastic patterns of historical data (i.e., the prior distribution) and the regional climate models' (RCMs') generated climate scenarios (i.e., the likelihood function) to redefine the stochastic behavior of a non-conditional climatic variable under climate change conditions (i.e., the posterior distribution). This study accounts for the deep-uncertainty effect by evaluating the stochastic pattern of the central tendency measure of the posterior distributions through regenerating the MCMCs. The Karkheh River Basin, Iran, is chosen to evaluate the proposed method. The reason for selecting this case study was twofold. First, this basin has a central role in ensuring the region's water, food, and energy security. The other reason is the diverse topographic profile of the basin, which imposes predictive challenges for most RCMs. Our results indicate that, while in most seasons, with the notable exception of summer, one can expect a slight drop in the temperature in the near future, the average temperature would continue to rise until eventually surpassing the historically recorded values. The results also revealed that the 95% confidence interval of the central tendency measure of computed posterior probability distributions varies between 0.1 and 0.3 °C. The results suggest exercising caution when employing the RCMs' raw projections, especially in topographically diverse terrain. Uncertainty refers to a situation in which the knowledge about the past, present, or more commonly, the future is not absolute. However, the degree of uncertainty is, also, not an absolute term. The amount of uncertainty may differ from one phenomenon to another to the point that it is often described as a spectrum of uncertainty 1. In some cases these uncertainties might be mild and may only concerned with minor details; in others, they may be severe uncertainties that underlie all aspects of the phenomena of interest 2. For instance, in a given case, we may know that a given variable would always be within a specified range. More importantly, the stochastic nature of this phenomenon can be described mathematically through probability distributions. In other cases, however, we might not have a grasp on the plausible range of the variable, nor is there any explicit mathematical formulation about the stochastic nature of the said phenomenon. Evidently, we are technically dealing with uncertainty in both cases, but the level of uncertainty in the latter case is clearly more pronounced than in the former case.

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Hugo Loaiciga

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