In this study, we couple the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with the Advanced Canop... more In this study, we couple the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with the Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm (ACASA), a high complexity land surface model, to investigate the impact of canopy representation on regional evapotranspiration. The WRF-ACASA model uses a multilayer structure to represent the canopy, consequently allowing microenvironmental variables such as leaf area index (LAI), air and canopy temperature, wind speed and humidity to vary both horizontally and vertically. The improvement in canopy representation and canopy-atmosphere interaction allow for more realistic simulation of evapotranspiration on both regional and local scales. Accurate estimates of evapotranspiration (both potential and actual) are especially important for regions with limited water availability and high water demand, such as California. Water availability has been and will continue to be the most important issue facing California for years and perhaps decades to come. Terrestrial evapotranspiration is influenced by many processes and interactions in the atmosphere and the bio-sphere such as water, carbon, and momentum exchanges. The need to improve representation within of surface-atmosphere interactions remains an urgent priority within the modeling community.
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2017
High-resolution numerical simulations are regularly used for severe weather forecasts. To improve... more High-resolution numerical simulations are regularly used for severe weather forecasts. To improve model initial conditions, a single short localization is commonly applied in the ensemble Kalman filter when assimilating observations. This approach prevents large-scale corrections from appearing in a high-resolution analysis. To improve heavy rainfall forecasts associated with a multiscale weather system, analyses must be accurate across a range of spatial scales, a task that is difficult to accomplish using a single localization. This study is the first to apply a dual-localization (DL) method to improve high-resolution analyses used to forecast a real-case heavy rainfall event associated with a Meiyu front on 16 June 2008 in Taiwan. A Meiyu front is a multiscale weather system characterized by storm-scale convection, a mesoscale front, and large-scale southwesterly monsoonal flow. The use of the DL method to produce the analyses was able to correct both the synoptic-scale moisture flux transported by southwesterly monsoonal flow and the mesoscale low-level convergence offshore of southwestern Taiwan. As a result, the forecasted amount, pattern, and temporal evolution of the heavy rainfall event were improved.
The direct radiative effects of Saharan mineral dust aerosols on the linear dynamics of African e... more The direct radiative effects of Saharan mineral dust aerosols on the linear dynamics of African easterly waves (AEWs) are examined analytically and numerically. The analytical analysis combines the thermodynamic equation with a dust continuity equation to form an expression for the dust-modified generation of eddy available potential energy . The dust-modified is a function of the transmissivity and spatial gradients of the dust, which are modulated by the Doppler-shifted frequency. The expression for predicts that for a fixed dust distribution, the wave response will be largest in regions where the dust gradients are maximized and the Doppler-shifted frequency vanishes. The numerical analysis uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled to an online dust model to calculate the linear dynamics of AEWs. Zonally averaged basic states for wind, temperature, and dust are chosen consistent with summertime conditions over North Africa. For the fastest-growing AEW, the dus...
In this study, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric... more In this study, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) with three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) is utilized to investigate influences of GPS occultation refractivity on simulations of typhoons past Taiwan. Two recent cases were simulated, including Typhoon Nari in September 2001 and Typhoon Nakri in July 2002. The GPS observation data are taken from the Challenging Minisatellite Payload for Geophysical Research and Application (CHAMP) and Satélite de Aplicaciones Científicas-C (SAC-C) satellites that provide several retrieved refractivity profiles in the simulated domain near the initialization time. Through 3DVAR, the observed refractivity can be quickly ingested into the model initial conditions to recover the information over the ocean. The initial moisture increments from ingested GPS refractivity soundings exhibit a maximum magnitude of about 1.5 g kg Ϫ1 associated with temperature increments of generally less than 0.2°C. The differences between the model local refractivity and the observed refractivity are less than 3% with a maximum magnitude of about 10 units. Pronounced increments from an occultation point are found within an influential radius of 500-600 km only. For the simulation without the assimilation of GPS refractivity (the no-GPS run), the simulated Typhoon Nari coherently moves southwestward toward Taiwan early in the simulation but then exhibits a westward track along the northwest of Taiwan after landfall. With GPS refractivity assimilated, the simulated westward track in the no-GPS run is closer to the west coast. During landfall, the cloud convection associated with the intense vortex core encounters the Central Mountain Range (CMR) and produces torrential rainfalls along its northwestern slope. Both the GPS run and the no-GPS run capture the observed feature of very intense rainfall over the southwestern slope base of the CMR later in the simulation, while the intensity as well as the track is improved in the GPS run. In the other case (Nakri), the simulated rainfall distributions, in general, are similar for both the GPS run and the no-GPS run; however, the GPS run exhibits a more pronounced low to the southeast of Taiwan, which results in more intense rainfall in the northeast of Taiwan as observed. Both GPS runs for Nari and Nakri show improved skills in 24-h accumulated rainfall prediction, in particular, at later stages, as supported by higher threat scores and smaller root-mean-square errors against observations over the island. This positive impact can be attributed largely to the fact that the accumulative effects from assimilation of initial GPS refractivity soundings are instrumental to model performance. A cycling 3DVAR scheme is also explored in the simulation for Nari to investigate the impact of complementary NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) near-surface wind observations on model prediction. When such observed near-surface wind is assimilated into reinitialization at a later integration time, the track prediction is further improved and thus the prediction for accumulated rainfall is improved as well.
Climate change can potentially have great impacts on wintertime precipitation and stagnant condit... more Climate change can potentially have great impacts on wintertime precipitation and stagnant conditions, which are critical for both water resources and wintertime particulate matter (PM), in California. This study utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting model to dynamically downscale a bias-corrected coarse-resolution global climate model dataset from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to a grid size of 4 × 4 km2 over California for a present (2003–2012) and a future (2046–2055) decade. Compared to the present climate, an increase in 2-m temperature (up to 2 K) and water vapor mixing ratio (up to 1 g/kg) and a decrease in planetary boundary layer height (up to 80 m) are projected by the 2050s for the entire state of California. The number of stagnant days over the San Joaquin Valley is expected to increase by approximately 6% in the future decade, indicating potential exacerbation of the winter PM issue in this region. The wintertime precipitation is proj...
The relationship between the African easterly jet (AEJ), Saharan mineral dust (SMD) aerosols, and... more The relationship between the African easterly jet (AEJ), Saharan mineral dust (SMD) aerosols, and West African precipitation (WAP) is examined using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data, the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) for July–September 1998–2017. The spatial orientation and structure of AEJs in different SMD–WAP environments are compared. In dustier years, the AEJ is farther east and stronger, rotates clockwise, and has larger zonal and vertical shears. In wetter years, the AEJ is farther north, has a shorter zonal extent, and has larger meridional shear. These changes to the AEJ are a response to the combined effects of the SMD and WAP on the thermal field, which is confirmed through sensitivity tests carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled...
Accurate representation of cloud microphysical processes in numerical weather and climate models ... more Accurate representation of cloud microphysical processes in numerical weather and climate models has proven challenging, in part because of the highly specialized instrumentation required for diagnosing errors in simulated distributions of hydrometeors. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) polarimetric radio occultation (PRO) is a promising new technique that is sensitive to hydrometeors and has the potential to help address these challenges by providing microphysical observations that are relevant to larger spatial scales, especially if this type of observing system can be implemented on aircraft that can target heavy precipitation events. Two numerical experiments were run using a mesoscale model configured with two different microphysical parameterization schemes for a very intense atmospheric river (AR) event that was sampled by aircraft deploying dropsondes just before it made landfall in California, during the CalWater 2015 field campaign. The numerical experiments were u...
Upstream track deflection of a propagating cyclonic vortex past an isolated mountain range is inv... more Upstream track deflection of a propagating cyclonic vortex past an isolated mountain range is investigated by using idealized simulations with both boundary layer turbulent mixing and cloud effects. The westbound vortex past a shorter mountain range may experience an earlier northward deflection prior to landfall. The vortex then takes a sudden southward turn as it gets closer to the mountain range, in response to the effects of the stronger northerly wind over the mountain due to the effects of channeling flow. The vortex may deflect southward when approaching a longer mountain range and then rebound northward upstream of the mountain ridge. The southward deflection is primarily induced by the convergence (stretching) effect due to the combination of the speedy core at the southwestern flank of the vortex and a northerly jet between the vortex and the mountain. The vortex then rebounds northward to pass over the mountain as the speedy core rotates counterclockwise to the eastern fl...
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2014
Using 33 year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis Interim reanalysis i... more Using 33 year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis Interim reanalysis in the months of August and September, we found that more than half of the low-level, moist vortices (called wet vortices) originating from south of the African easterly jet merged with a shallow, dry vortex from the north after leaving the West African coast. A dry vortex involved with the merger process is referred to as a D-vortex, and the process is referred to as a D-vortex merger. Dry vortices influenced by more intense African easterly waves moved southwestward and had a greater potential to serve as D-vortices in the merger process. The D-vortex merger occurred in the predepression stage of 70% of tropical cyclones (TCs) that formed in the Atlantic main development region and in 55% of nondeveloping systems. Further analysis showed that developing systems with the D-vortex merger (DM) were statistically dominated by a more intense wet vortex whose 500 hPa relative humidity was also significantly higher, while nondeveloping systems with the D-vortex merger (NM) were dominated by a more intense dry vortex. The average intensity of wet vortices for DM was more intense than that for NM, significant at a 95% confidence level. Moreover, warmer Saharan air was observed for DM than NM. While TC genesis is largely controlled by the large-scale environment over ocean, differences in vortex characteristics and environment over northwestern Africa between DM and NM could potentially help predict whether a tropical system associated with the D-vortex merger will ultimately evolve into an Atlantic TC.
Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainf... more Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainfall estimates are used extensively across Africa for operational rainfall monitoring and food security applications; thus, regional evaluations of TAMSAT are essential to ensure its reliability. This study assesses the performance of TAMSAT rainfall estimates, along with the African Rainfall Climatology (ARC), version 2; the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product; and the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH), against a dense rain gauge network over a mountainous region of Ethiopia. Overall, TAMSAT exhibits good skill in detecting rainy events but underestimates rainfall amount, while ARC underestimates both rainfall amount and rainy event frequency. Meanwhile, TRMM consistently performs best in detecting rainy events and capturing the mean rainfall and seasonal variability, while CMORPH tends to overdetect rainy events. Moreover, the mean difference in d...
• A 7-year WRF/CMAQ simulation for the eastern US with 4-km spatial resolution • WRF model perfor... more • A 7-year WRF/CMAQ simulation for the eastern US with 4-km spatial resolution • WRF model performance is comparable with other short-term studies. • Ozone, PM 2.5 /PM 10 , elemental carbon, sulfate and nitrate are well reproduced. • CMAQ (v4.7.1 with AERO5) still under-predicts organic carbon in the summer.
Three observational datasets of Hurricane Isidore (in 2002) were analyzed and compared: the Speci... more Three observational datasets of Hurricane Isidore (in 2002) were analyzed and compared: the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) winds, and dropsonde winds. SSM/I and QuikSCAT winds were on average about 1.9 and 0.3 m s−1 stronger, respectively, than dropsonde winds. With more than 20 000 points of data, SSM/I wind speed was about 2.2 m s−1 stronger than QuikSCAT. Comparison of the wind direction observed by QuikSCAT with those from the dropsondes showed that the quality of QuikSCAT data is good. The effect of assimilating SSM/I wind speeds and/or QuikSCAT wind vectors for the analysis of Hurricane Isidore was assessed using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation system. For the Hurricane Isidore case study, it was found that the assimilation of either satellite winds strengthened the cyclonic circulation...
A fully compressible, three-dimensional, nonhydrostatic model is developed using a semi-implicit ... more A fully compressible, three-dimensional, nonhydrostatic model is developed using a semi-implicit scheme to avoid an extremely small time step. As a result of applying the implicit scheme to high-frequency waves, an elliptic partial differential equation (EPDE) has been introduced. A multigrid solver is applied to solve the EPDEs, which include cross-derivative terms due to terrain-following coordinate transformation. Several experiments have been performed to evaluate the model as well as the performance of the scheme with respect to tolerance number, relaxation choice, sweeps of prerelaxation and postrelaxation, and a flexible hybrid coordinate (FHC). An FHC with two functions (base and deviation functions) is introduced. The basic function provides constant vertical grid spacing required in the multigrid solver, while the deviation function helps to adjust the vertical resolution.
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 2002
A one-dimensional prognostic cloud model has been developed for possible use in a Cumulus Paramet... more A one-dimensional prognostic cloud model has been developed for possible use in a Cumulus Parameterization Scheme (CPS). In this model, the nonhydrostatic pressure, entrainment, cloud microphysics, lateral eddy mixing and vertical eddy mixing are included, and their effects are discussed. The inclusion of the nonhydrostatic pressure can (1) weaken vertical velocities, (2) help the cloud develop sooner, (3) help maintain a longer mature stage, (4) produce a stronger overshooting cooling, and (5) approximately double the precipitation amount. The pressure perturbation consists of buoyancy pressure and dynamic pressure, and the simulation results show that both of them are important. We have compared our simulation results with those from Ogura and Takahashi's one-dimensional cloud model, and those from the three-dimensional Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Our model, including detailed cloud microphysics, generates stronger maximum vertical velocity than Ogura and Takahashi's results. Furthermore, the results illustrate that this one-dimensional model is capable of reproducing the major features of a convective cloud that are produced by the three-dimensional model when there is no ambient wind shear.
An explicit one-dimensional time-dependent tilting cloud model has been developed for use in cumu... more An explicit one-dimensional time-dependent tilting cloud model has been developed for use in cumulus parameterizations. The tilting axis is not necessarily orthogonal to the (r, θ) plane, making the horizontal axisymmetric assumption more reasonable. This explicit time-dependent tilting model (ETTM) consists of an updraft and a downdraft, which are governed by the same dynamic and thermodynamic equations. The updraft is initiated by a moist thermal bubble, while the downdraft is consequently induced by evaporative cooling and the drag force of precipitation separating from the tilting updraft instead of being arbitrarily initialized. The updraft is capable of reproducing the major features of a deep cloud such as overshooting cooling above the cloud top, evaporative cooling near the surface, and drying in the lower atmosphere at dissipating stages. The entrainment–detrainment rate in this model is well defined, and its time variation is quite significant. Moreover, the vertical prof...
This study investigates the influence of dust-radiation effects on the modification of the Sahara... more This study investigates the influence of dust-radiation effects on the modification of the Saharan air layer (SAL) and environmental shear. A tracer model based on the Weather Research and Forecast model was developed to examine the influence using a dust outbreak event. Two numerical experiments were conducted with (ON) and without (OFF) the dust-radiation effects. Both simulations reasonably reproduced SAL's features. However, the 700 hPa maximum temperature within SAL was slightly underestimated and shifted northwestward from OFF. These were improved from ON, but the maximum temperature became slightly overestimated, which might be due to inaccurate optical properties. The dust-radiation interactions mainly warmed the dusty air between 750 and 550 hPa because dust shortwave absorption dominated dust longwave cooling. Another major warming area was found near the surface over the ocean due to longwave radiative heating by dust aloft. The modification of temperature resulted in an adjustment of the vertical wind shear. To the south of SAL, where easterly wave disturbances and tropical storms usually occur, the vertical zonal wind shear increased by about 1∼2.5 m s −1 km −1 from 750 to 550 hPa, resulting in a maximum wind change of 3∼5 m s −1 , a 30∼40% increase, around the top of this layer. The enhancement of the vertical shear in this layer could potentially have an impact on TC genesis and development. The dust-radiation effects also modified the moisture and dust distribution, which can have a feedback (i.e., a secondary effect) on the heating profile and the vertical shear.
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Papers by Shu-Hua Chen