Papers by Tatiana Filatova
Understanding which climate change adaptation constraints manifest for different actorsgovernment... more Understanding which climate change adaptation constraints manifest for different actorsgovernments, communities, individuals and householdsis essential, as adaptation is turning into a matter of survival. Though rich qualitative research reveals constraints for diverse cases, methods to consolidate knowledge and elicit patterns in adaptation constraints for various actors and hazards are scarce. We fill this gap by analyzing associations between different adaptations and actors' constraints in adaptation to climate-induced floods and sealevel rise. Our novel approach derives textual data from peer-reviewed articles (published before February 2024) by using natural language processing, supervised learning, thematic coding books, and network analysis. Results show that social capital, economic factors, and government support are constraints shared among all actors. With respect to adaptation types, communities are frequently associated with maladaptation, while individuals and households are frequently associated with transformational adaptation.
Scientific Reports, Jan 17, 2024
Economic costs of climate change are conventionally assessed at the aggregated global and nationa... more Economic costs of climate change are conventionally assessed at the aggregated global and national levels, while adaptation is local. When present, regionalised assessments are confined to direct damages, hindered by both data and models' limitations. This article goes beyond the aggregated analysis to explore direct and indirect economic consequences of sea level rise (SLR) at regional and sectoral levels in Europe. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model and novel datasets, we estimate the distribution of losses and gains across regions and sectors. A comparison of a highend scenario against a no-climate-impact baseline suggests a GDP loss of 1.26% (€871.8 billion) for the whole EU&UK. Conversely our refined assessments show that some coastal regions lose 9.56-20.84% of GDP, revealing striking regional disparities. Inland regions grow due to the displaced demand from coastal areas, but the GDP gains are small (0-1.13%). While recovery benefits the construction sector, public services and industry face significant downturns. We show that prioritising recovery of critical sectors locally reduces massive regional GDP losses, at negligible costs to the overall European economy. Our analysis traces regional economic restructuring triggered by SLR, underscoring the necessity of region-specific adaptation policies that embrace uneven geographic impacts and unique sectoral profiles to inform resilient strategy design. Climate change threatens economic development globally, with distinct disparities in accelerating risks across regions. Particularly, climate-induced sea-level rise (SLR) is an increasing concern. Its destructive potential impacts areas where productive capital and population cluster: coastal cities and regions. These regions experience rapid population growth 1, 2 , leaving over 200 million people in Europe alone-i.e., circa 44% of the EU&UK populations live within 50 km from the coastline-at risk of coastal flooding and significant economic disruption as a result . Furthermore, these coastal regions contribute to nearly 40% of the European Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and an impressive 75% of Europe's international trade volume is carried out through maritime routes 5 . However, the exposure and vulnerability of the European coastline is uneven. The varying degrees of regional climate-driven SLR, the structure of coastal economies and their private and public adaptation capacities 3, 6 could lead to asymmetric economic losses locally, and unequal indirect effects that spillover throughout the European economy. Yet, even the most advanced assessments of the macroeconomic costs of SLR have so far been performed predominantly at the aggregated level of countries or larger world regions 4, 7-12 , while decisions on investments in economic development and climate change adaptation are local. Rare valuable subnational assessments 13 are confined to direct damages 14 , hindered by both data and models' limitations. This article goes beyond the conventional aggregated analysis to explore direct and indirect economic consequences of SLR for the EU&UK regions, explicitly differentiating between coastal and inland areas. For the first time, we report damages from
Sustainability, Feb 17, 2023
Climate change effects are not uniform and have disproportionate impacts among different groups o... more Climate change effects are not uniform and have disproportionate impacts among different groups of people within communities. It is therefore important to understand the underlying issues of intersectionality for climate change adaptation and human well-being. This paper aims to measure human capabilities and freedom of choice by analyzing perceived climate change impacts and current climate change adaptation ability among ethnic and non-ethnic communities in Bangladesh. This study applies a range of participatory rural appraisal tools and key informant interviews to assess impacts of climate change when considering gender and ethnicity. Women in the coastal regions have less access to resources and services because of social capital and cultural practices and this directly or indirectly influences their adaptation to climate change. Women have limited or no participation in decision-making processes at family or community levels and this impacts their vulnerability and well-being. In consequence, women's capabilities must be focused on moderating their vulnerability and risk, and developing effective adaptation to the adverse impacts of climate change and natural hazards.
SSRN Electronic Journal
• A comprehensive understanding of validation for agent-based models and beyond • 11 dimensions t... more • A comprehensive understanding of validation for agent-based models and beyond • 11 dimensions to characterise the modelling context and purpose • A detailed protocol to guide context-adequate model construction and review • A consistent tracking of uncertainty propagation through the modelling process
This extended abstract outlines a prototype metadata standard for recording outputs of social sim... more This extended abstract outlines a prototype metadata standard for recording outputs of social simulations, to be refined as part of a project funded through the third round of the Digging into Data challenge. This is with a view to gathering community feedback on the proposals.
Frontiers in Climate
Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to u... more Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere. Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, where a small change in the underlying elements or behavior of actors triggers a large non-linear response in the social system. With climate change becoming more acute, it is important to know whether and how societies can adapt. While social tipping points related to climate change have been associated with positive or negative outcomes, overstepping adaptation limits has been linked to adverse outcomes where actors' values and objectives are strongly compromised. Currently, the evidence base is limited, and most of the discussion on social tipping points in climate change adaptation and risk research is conceptual or anecdotal. This paper brings together three strands of literature - social tipping p...
Science and practice for an uncertain future, 2021
Expanding human developments and climate change have exacerbated the impact of natural hazards wo... more Expanding human developments and climate change have exacerbated the impact of natural hazards worldwide. In particular, accelerating flood risks entails that more traditional top down measures are complimented by individual adaptation at the household level. Worldwide, social surveys provide rich information about factors motivating individual adaptation to climate-driven floods. Notably, much of this empirical research has focused on the Global North. Yet, empirical research explicitly measuring whether and how climate change adaptation varies across cultures is lacking. Using Hofstede's Cultural Rankings as a measure of national culture, we utilize meta-regression analysis to investigate the effects of culture on individuals' motivation to adapt to climate-driven floods. This research makes a unique contribution to the literature by providing some of the first empirical evidence on the interaction effects between culture and individual flooding adaptation motivation based on the data collected across a large sample of countries. The results provide strong statistical support for the importance of considering cultural differences when empirically assessing limits of individual adaptation worldwide.
A first assessment of the role of land-market dynamics in agent-based land exchange models
Assessing the spatio-temporal effects of endogenous relocation in agent-based land market models exchange models
Nature Climate Change, 2021
Understanding social and behavioral drivers and constraints of household adaptation is essential ... more Understanding social and behavioral drivers and constraints of household adaptation is essential to effectively address increasing climate-induced risks. Factors shaping household adaptation are commonly treated as universal; despite an emerging understanding that adaptations are shaped by social, institutional, and cultural contexts. Using original surveys in the United States, China, Indonesia, and the Netherlands (N=3,789)-we explore variations in factors shaping households' adaptations to flooding, the costliest hazard worldwide. We find that social influence, worry, climate change beliefs, self-efficacy, and perceived costs exhibit universal effects on household adaptations, despite countries' differences. Disparities occur in the effects of response efficacy, flood experience, beliefs in governmental actions, demographics, and media, which we attribute to specific cultural or institutional characteristics. Climate adaptation policies can leverage on the revealed similarities when extrapolating best practices across countries, yet should exercise caution as context-specific socio-behavioral drivers may discourage or even reverse household adaptation motivation.
description of a complex system is not easy. The uncertainty and indeterminacy present in complex... more description of a complex system is not easy. The uncertainty and indeterminacy present in complex systems, drive modelers to make subjective decision about the behavior of the system and its most relevant features. This implies embedding a series of nested, and sometimes iterative and evolving assumptions in the model. This in turn, incorporates uncertainty into the model at various levels; affecting the model, the way in which it is developed and the value of its inference. But what does it mean for modelers and the way we do modeling? First, complexity affects the way in which models are implemented. Traditionally, models are thought to be developed as a sequential of three main activities: conceptualization, implementation and evaluation. However, modeling complex systems requires an iterative process of model formulation, more like a trial and error approach, where modules at different levels of detail are considered in conjunction with different assumptions and hypotheses about...
Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 2021
Consumer behavior is key in shifts towards organic products. A diversity of factors influences co... more Consumer behavior is key in shifts towards organic products. A diversity of factors influences consumer preferences, driving planned, impulsive, and unplanned purchasing decisions. We study choices among organic and conventional wine using an extensive survey among Australian consumers (N=1003). We integrate five behavioral theories in the survey design, and use supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms for analysis. We quantify a gap between intention and behavior, and emphasize the importance of cognitive factors. Findings go beyond correlation to the causation of behavior when combining predictive prowess with explanatory power. Results reveal that affective factors and normative cues may prompt unplanned and spontaneous purchasing behavior, causing consumers to act against their beliefs.
Energy Research & Social Science, 2020
Local energy initiatives (LEIs) are communities of households who self-organize to meet their ene... more Local energy initiatives (LEIs) are communities of households who self-organize to meet their energy demand with locally produced green energy. They facilitate citizen participation by developing context-specific solutions, which calls for leadership and complex social dynamics. We present an agent-based simulation model to explore the formation of community energy initiatives from the bottom-up, accounting for social networks and evolution of opinions facilitating or hindering LEIs. Our novel model relies on well-established social theories and uses empirical data on community energy systems in the Netherlands and individual citizens' preferences. Specifically, our computational model captures behavioural drivers and social value orientations, and relates individuals behavioural traits to aggregated stylized facts about energy initiatives at the community level. The results indicate that when communities lack participants with cooperative orientation, altruistic citizens with prosocial social value orientations become essential for the creation of LEIs, revealing different pathways to achieve public good benefits. Our analysis systematically demonstrate that leaders can be a bottleneck in the LEIs' formation and that an increase in initiators is conducive to the creation of LEIs. Therefore, policies aiming at increasing the number of community initiatives should target small groups and individuals with the leadership potential, who could lead projects, and explore synergies with wider community benefits.
The twofold aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the current state of resilience resear... more The twofold aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the current state of resilience research with regard to climate change in the social sciences and propose a research agenda. Resilience research among social scientists is characterized by much more diversity today than a few decades ago. Different definitions and understandings of resilience appear in publications during the last 10 years. Resilience research increasingly bears the mark of social constructivism, a relative newcomer compared to the more longstanding tradition of naturalism. There are also approaches that are indebted to both "naturalism" and "constructivism", which, of course, come in many varieties. Based on our overview of recent scholarship, which is far from being exhaustive, we have identified six research avenues that arguably deserve continued attention. They combine naturalist and constructivist insights and approaches so that human agency, reflexivity, and considerations of justice and equity are incorporated into systems thinking research or supplement such research. Ultimately, we believe that the overarching challenge for future research is to ensure that resilience to climate change does not compromise sustainability and considerations of justice (including environmental, climate, and energy justice).
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Papers by Tatiana Filatova