Papers by Robert Muir-Wood
Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2013
A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and e... more A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Economic losses from floods have greatly increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. It has not been possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past several decades. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, based on climate models, should contribute to increases in precipitation-generated local flooding (e.g. flash flooding and urban flooding). This article assesses the literature included in the IPCC SREX report and new literature published since, and includes an assessment of changes in flood risk in seven of the regions considered in the
EUROPEAN EARTH SCIENCES (or how to convert a suspect terrane into a craton)
Terra Nova, 1989
Vulnerability to Climate Extremes EXPOSURE ESTIMATES

Climatic Change, 2010
This study illustrates a methodology to assess the economic impacts of climate change at a city s... more This study illustrates a methodology to assess the economic impacts of climate change at a city scale and benefits of adaptation, taking the case of sea level rise and storm surge risk in the city of Copenhagen, capital of Denmark. The approach is a simplified catastrophe risk assessment, to calculate the direct costs of storm surges under scenarios of sea level rise, coupled to an economic input-output (IO) model. The output is a risk assessment of the direct and indirect economic impacts of storm surge under climate change, including, for example, production and job losses and reconstruction duration, and the benefits of investment in upgraded sea defences. The simplified catastrophe risk assessment entails a statistical analysis of storm surge characteristics, geographical-information analysis of population and asset exposure combined with aggregated vulnerability information. For the city of Copenhagen, it is found that in absence of adaptation, sea level rise would significantly increase flood risks. Results call for the introduction of adaptation in long-term urban planning, as one part of a comprehensive strategy to manage the
The 1755 Lisbon Earthquake: Revisited
Setting, Measuring and Monitoring Targets for Disaster Risk Reduction: Recommendations for post-2015 international policy frameworks

The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 2007
Scientific evidence is accumulating that climate change is having an impact on the frequency, int... more Scientific evidence is accumulating that climate change is having an impact on the frequency, intensity and geographical distribution of extreme weather events. With these trends likely to continue for the foreseeable future, the insurance industry can help society to adapt, by limiting and managing risks associated with extreme weather, and thereby maintaining the insurability of potentially vulnerable and exposed populations. There are already examples of the insurance industry promoting efforts to mitigate the impacts of weather hazards, by disseminating information about reducing the vulnerability of properties, offering financial incentives to invest in mitigating the impacts of extreme weather, and by working in partnership with policy-makers to establish maximum thresholds of acceptable risk. However, these efforts need to be more widely promoted by insurers to make a significant contribution to society's adaptation to climate change.

Mineralogical Magazine, 1982
The Laytonville Quarry exotic block contains a series of deep-ocean sediments of varying Fe: Mn, ... more The Laytonville Quarry exotic block contains a series of deep-ocean sediments of varying Fe: Mn, Fe:Al and Fe2+ : Fe3+ contents, but all enriched in Fe-Mn carbonates. These sediments have a complex metamorphic history that has involved the early development of aegirine and garnet, followed by various phases of ‘secondary’ mineral growth, all of which required the addition of water to the metamorphic assemblages under high-P, low-T conditions. During the course of an early hydration episode deerite formed within most of the ironstones, and zussmanite in certain Fe-rich, Mn-poor pelites. At a later, and apparently lower pressure period in the metamorphic history, howieite, riebeckite, stilpnomelane, and a more manganous variety of zussmanite (ZU2) have overtaken much of the earlier mineralogy. Subsequent to this, and contemporaneous with the development of the tremolite-talc exotic block rind assemblage, there is a minor development of minnesotaite and ekmanite. During the course of t...

Climate Extremes and Society
In order to evaluate potential trends in global natural catastrophe losses, it is important to co... more In order to evaluate potential trends in global natural catastrophe losses, it is important to compensate for changes in asset values and exposures over time. We create a Global Normalized Catastrophe Catalogue covering weatherrelated catastrophe losses in the principal developed (Australia, Canada, Europe, Japan, South Korea, United States) and developing (Caribbean, Central America, China, India, the Philippines) regions of the world. We survey losses from 1950 through 2005, although data availability means that for many regions the record is incomplete for the period before the 1970s even for the largest events. After 1970, when the global record becomes more comprehensive, we find evidence of an annual upward trend for normalized losses of 2% per year. Conclusions are heavily weighted by US losses, and their removal eliminates any statistically significant trend. Large events, such as Hurricane Katrina and China flood losses in the 1990s, also exert a strong impact on trend results. In addition, once national losses are further normalized relative to per capita wealth, the significance of the post-1970 global trend disappears. We find insufficient evidence to claim a statistical relationship between global temperature increase and normalized catastrophe losses.

Tellus A, 2007
Atlantic hurricane activity has been particularly high since 1995, with nine seasons recording mo... more Atlantic hurricane activity has been particularly high since 1995, with nine seasons recording more hurricanes than the long-term average. The recognition that current activity is not the same as the long-term historical average means that, for the purpose of catastrophe risk assessment, we need to be explicit as to the time period over which expected activity is evaluated. We have chosen to explore activities over a 5-yr forward looking time window, which bounds the range of business applications for which catastrophe loss models are employed. This time horizon is also shorter than the pattern of past multidecadal periods of high and low activity. The methodology used to assess activity rates for the next 5 yr contains a blend of statistical analyses and an expert elicitation. A panel of experts was convened to discuss expected levels of activity for the next 5 yr across the Atlantic, along the U.S. and Caribbean coasts. The results indicate hurricane activities along the U.S. coast are expected to be between 20 and 35% higher than the long-term average, depending on storm intensity. The implementation of these findings has included work to determine how increases are distributed by track type and by region, and the impacts on expected losses.

Natural Hazards, 2010
The Tunguska airburst, which devastated a taiga forest over an area greater than 2,000 km 2 in a ... more The Tunguska airburst, which devastated a taiga forest over an area greater than 2,000 km 2 in a remote region of Central Siberia in 1908, is a classic example of extraterrestrial encounter discussed in the asteroid/comet impact hazard and risk assessment literature (e.g. Longo 2007; Carusi et al. 2007). Although it is generally agreed that the cosmic body caused damage by bursting in the air rather than through direct impact on the Earth's surface, the Tunguska event is often referred to as an impact event. To the best of our knowledge, no detailed studies have been performed to quantify the risk of a similarsized event over a populated region. We propose here a straightforward probabilistic risk model for Tunguska-type events over the continental United States and use established risk metrics to determine the property (buildings and contents) and human losses. We find an annual average property loss of *USD 200,000/year, a rate of *0.3 fatalities/year and *1.0 injuries/year ranging from a factor 3 below and to a factor 3 above the indicated values when a reasonable rate uncertainty for Tunguska-type events is taken into account. We then illustrate the case of an extreme event over the New York metropolitan area. While we estimate that this ''nightmare'' scenario would lead to *USD 1.5 trillion of property loss, *3.9 millions of fatalities and *4.7 millions of injuries, such event is almost impossible (occurrence once every *30 million years) and should only be considered as an illustrative example.

Natural Hazards, 2010
The Tunguska airburst, which devastated a taiga forest over an area greater than 2,000 km 2 in a ... more The Tunguska airburst, which devastated a taiga forest over an area greater than 2,000 km 2 in a remote region of Central Siberia in 1908, is a classic example of extraterrestrial encounter discussed in the asteroid/comet impact hazard and risk assessment literature (e.g. Longo 2007; Carusi et al. 2007). Although it is generally agreed that the cosmic body caused damage by bursting in the air rather than through direct impact on the Earth's surface, the Tunguska event is often referred to as an impact event. To the best of our knowledge, no detailed studies have been performed to quantify the risk of a similarsized event over a populated region. We propose here a straightforward probabilistic risk model for Tunguska-type events over the continental United States and use established risk metrics to determine the property (buildings and contents) and human losses. We find an annual average property loss of *USD 200,000/year, a rate of *0.3 fatalities/year and *1.0 injuries/year ranging from a factor 3 below and to a factor 3 above the indicated values when a reasonable rate uncertainty for Tunguska-type events is taken into account. We then illustrate the case of an extreme event over the New York metropolitan area. While we estimate that this ''nightmare'' scenario would lead to *USD 1.5 trillion of property loss, *3.9 millions of fatalities and *4.7 millions of injuries, such event is almost impossible (occurrence once every *30 million years) and should only be considered as an illustrative example.

Natural Hazards, 2010
The Tunguska airburst, which devastated a taiga forest over an area greater than 2,000 km 2 in a ... more The Tunguska airburst, which devastated a taiga forest over an area greater than 2,000 km 2 in a remote region of Central Siberia in 1908, is a classic example of extraterrestrial encounter discussed in the asteroid/comet impact hazard and risk assessment literature (e.g. Longo 2007; Carusi et al. 2007). Although it is generally agreed that the cosmic body caused damage by bursting in the air rather than through direct impact on the Earth's surface, the Tunguska event is often referred to as an impact event. To the best of our knowledge, no detailed studies have been performed to quantify the risk of a similarsized event over a populated region. We propose here a straightforward probabilistic risk model for Tunguska-type events over the continental United States and use established risk metrics to determine the property (buildings and contents) and human losses. We find an annual average property loss of *USD 200,000/year, a rate of *0.3 fatalities/year and *1.0 injuries/year ranging from a factor 3 below and to a factor 3 above the indicated values when a reasonable rate uncertainty for Tunguska-type events is taken into account. We then illustrate the case of an extreme event over the New York metropolitan area. While we estimate that this ''nightmare'' scenario would lead to *USD 1.5 trillion of property loss, *3.9 millions of fatalities and *4.7 millions of injuries, such event is almost impossible (occurrence once every *30 million years) and should only be considered as an illustrative example.

Natural Hazards, 2010
The Tunguska airburst, which devastated a taiga forest over an area greater than 2,000 km 2 in a ... more The Tunguska airburst, which devastated a taiga forest over an area greater than 2,000 km 2 in a remote region of Central Siberia in 1908, is a classic example of extraterrestrial encounter discussed in the asteroid/comet impact hazard and risk assessment literature (e.g. Longo 2007; Carusi et al. 2007). Although it is generally agreed that the cosmic body caused damage by bursting in the air rather than through direct impact on the Earth's surface, the Tunguska event is often referred to as an impact event. To the best of our knowledge, no detailed studies have been performed to quantify the risk of a similarsized event over a populated region. We propose here a straightforward probabilistic risk model for Tunguska-type events over the continental United States and use established risk metrics to determine the property (buildings and contents) and human losses. We find an annual average property loss of *USD 200,000/year, a rate of *0.3 fatalities/year and *1.0 injuries/year ranging from a factor 3 below and to a factor 3 above the indicated values when a reasonable rate uncertainty for Tunguska-type events is taken into account. We then illustrate the case of an extreme event over the New York metropolitan area. While we estimate that this ''nightmare'' scenario would lead to *USD 1.5 trillion of property loss, *3.9 millions of fatalities and *4.7 millions of injuries, such event is almost impossible (occurrence once every *30 million years) and should only be considered as an illustrative example.
Today, the value of Cat models has also been recognised across many other sectors and users, lead... more Today, the value of Cat models has also been recognised across many other sectors and users, leading to various derivatives of these models that are supported by development professionals, the financial sector and national to local governments, in making risk-based decisions. Cat models, conditioned on rapidly advancing Earth observations and climate change models, offer the opportunity for (re)insurers and other sectors to assess physical risk of climate change with a forward-looking approach building on the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Disclosure (FSB-TCFD) recommendations.
Earthquakes and Volcanoes
... Earthquakes and volcanoes. Post a Comment. CONTRIBUTORS: Author: Wood, Robert Muir. PUBLISHER... more ... Earthquakes and volcanoes. Post a Comment. CONTRIBUTORS: Author: Wood, Robert Muir. PUBLISHER: Weidenfeld & Nicolson (New York). SERIES TITLE: YEAR: 1987. PUB TYPE: Book (ISBN 1555840833 ). VOLUME/EDITION: 1st American edition. ...

understanding the potentially devastating consequences of catastrophic events such as earthquakes... more understanding the potentially devastating consequences of catastrophic events such as earthquakes, floods, and terrorist attacks. The insurance industry, in particular, uses our catastrophe modeling technology to quantify the impact of these events on portfolios of risk, and then, using that knowledge, takes steps to manage the risk. Catastrophe models are powerful tools for assessing risk at both the individual and aggregate level, and allow for the exploration and mitigation of exposure and risk correlation. The 2005 flooding of New Orleans ranks alongside the Great San Francisco Earthquake and Fire of 1906, and the 1927 Mississippi Flood: disasters on an iconic scale that lead to fundamental changes in catastrophe risk management culture. RMS is committed to assisting in this cultural change by developing and publishing objective assessments of the flood risk in the city of New Orleans from hurricane storm surges. The redevelopment of New Orleans depends on achieving a level of transparency around the future trajectory of flood risk, so those living and investing in the city can have the confidence that the risk is being effectively managed. This report also considers the role of insurance, the planning process, and the government in providing physical and economic protection from flood risk. Information on risk should underpin planning the future of New Orleans. In a world in which the climate is changing, the analysis of future risk needs to inform economic decisions today. While this report concerns a single city along the U.S. Gulf Coast, the problems are shared by many other coastal cities around the world: cities such as Venice, Alexandria, and Dhaka, similarly located on deltas and also prone to geologically rapid subsidence. Then there is a much longer list of cities at risk from rising sea levels and more intense storms, including cities all along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts. The spotlight of world attention today is on how New Orleans resolves to sustain itself in a situation of rising risk. There are opportunities to pioneer solutions that maintain the viability of the city while at the same time ensuring that risk to the city's citizens and businesses is maintained below acceptable and published thresholds. As the leading independent provider of global risk information, RMS will be working to ensure that risk analytics continue to remain at the heart of decisions about development, flood protection, and insurability.
An OECD project on Copenhagen, Sea Level Rise and Future Storm Surge Risk
This OECD study investigates the current and future exposure of the city of Copenhagen (København... more This OECD study investigates the current and future exposure of the city of Copenhagen (København), Denmark, to sea level rise and storm surges. It is estimated that today a storm surge of amplitude 150 cm (above mean sea level) will be seen approximately once every hundred years. By raising the water level of storm surge events, anthropogenic sea level rise
Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2009
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Papers by Robert Muir-Wood