This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative... more This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY
Many buildings around the world have undergone successive changes over their life cycles. These c... more Many buildings around the world have undergone successive changes over their life cycles. These changes might be in the building’s spatial, structural or service systems. This can be due to changes in the needs of occupants, the market demand or technological advances. This paper proposes an Adaptable Buildings Design (ABD) framework to help design buildings that can adapt to change to increase the building’s longevity. Using this framework, uncertainties are first identified. Flexibility options are then embedded and design rules are formulated to trigger these options when necessary. The value of adaptability is then assessed by implementing several simulations using Real Options Analysis (ROA). To demonstrate the approach, the ABD is applied to a multiuse commercial building case study. Flexibility is embedded in the building’s design across several systems allowing it to evolve over time based on a set of design rules. The building’s flexibility value is then assessed using ROA....
Cost overrun on infrastructure projects is widespread and represents significant financial risks ... more Cost overrun on infrastructure projects is widespread and represents significant financial risks to stakeholders. The large number of possible causes makes the planning and management of projects challenging. A survey of 160 project managers of infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia was conducted to elicit the cost overrun causes. After cluster analysis, the causes were reduced to four dimensions: scope changes, market and regulatory, inadequate planning and control, and unforeseen circumstances. These four dimensions were then used to develop a risk-based cost contingency estimation model (RBCCEM) to improve the accuracy of cost forecasting and then validated using a bootstrapping approach. The accuracy of cost estimation measures was used to compare RBCCEM with fixed cost contingency (10%), reference class forecasting (RCF P50 & P90), and hybrid (it is a combination of RBCCEM & RCF P50). The comparison suggested that the RBCCEM could be more accurate as the error decreased by 10%...
Improving cost contingency estimation for infrastructure projects based on the impact of cost overrun causes of similar projects – illustration using Saudi Arabia survey data
Towards Changeability The Adaptable Buildings Design (ABD) Framework
Many buildings around the world have undergone successive changes over their life cycles. These c... more Many buildings around the world have undergone successive changes over their life cycles. These changes might be in the building's spatial, structural or service systems. This can be due to changes in the needs of occupants, the market demand or technological advances. This paper proposes an Adaptable Buildings Design (ABD) framework to help design buildings that can adapt to change to increase the building's longevity. Using this framework, uncertainties are first identified. Flexibility options are then embedded and design rules are formulated to trigger these options when necessary. The value of adaptability is then assessed by implementing several simulations using Real Options Analysis (ROA). To demonstrate the approach, the ABD is applied to a multi-use commercial building case study. Flexibility is embedded in the building's design across several systems allowing it to evolve over time based on a set of design rules. The building's flexibility value is then as...
Understanding Major Causes Cost Overrun for Infratsrtucture Projects; a Typology Approach
Cost overruns in infrastructure projects around the world is common which represents significant,... more Cost overruns in infrastructure projects around the world is common which represents significant, but avoidable, economic losses. Historical data over the last several decades indicates that cost performance has not improved over time -no significant learning has occurred. Studies have identified a wide spectrum of various causes for cost overruns in infrastructure projects. According to Flyvbjerg et al. (2004), the two main causes of cost overruns are: optimism bias and strategic misrepresentations. Other studies have found that factors such as lack of experience, the size of the project, mistakes in design, overall price fluctuations, inaccurate estimations and scope changes have impacts on cost overrun (Memon et al., 2011; Love et al., 2011). The myriad of causes makes the planning and management of projects difficult. The objective of this research is to propose a theoretical framework sorting the causes and corresponding management approach in the infrastructure project. The em...
Toward a Typology: cost overrun causes framework in infrastructure projects
The cost overrun of infrastructure projects potentially poses significant financial risks to the ... more The cost overrun of infrastructure projects potentially poses significant financial risks to the investment parties involved. Substantial cost overrun has been identified in infrastructure-project data from across 20 nations in five continents. Studies, in fact, show that the average cost overrun of infrastructure projects presents substantial fiscal risk (Flybjerg & COWI, 2004; Odeck, 2004; Flybjerg et. al., 2009). Yet, over the last several decades, the magnitude of cost overrun of infrastructure projects has failed to improve, suggesting that no significant learning has occurred in mitigating its detrimental effects. The possible causes of cost overruns are numerous. They are dependent upon the unique characteristics and context of individual projects. According to Flyvbjerg et al. (2004), the two main causes of cost overruns are: optimism bias and strategic misrepresentations. Other studies have identified a spectrum of various causes for cost overruns. These include: technical ...
The cost overrun of infrastructure projects potentially poses significant financial risks to the ... more The cost overrun of infrastructure projects potentially poses significant financial risks to the investment stakeholders involved. Based on projects data from across 20 nations in five continents, studies show that the average cost overrun of infrastructure projects is substantial1,2. Yet, over the last several decades, the magnitude of cost overrun of infrastructure projects has failed to improve, suggesting that no significant learning has occurred in the mitigating the extended of cost overrun of infrastructure project. The aim of the paper is to develop an empirically based classification/taxonomy of cost overrun causes in infrastructure project. We employed a questionnaire survey to elicit the major causes that contribute to cost overrun in infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia. The frequency and severity of causes that impact on cost overrun are evaluated and ranked. A survey of 160 project mangers of infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia has been conducted. The data has b...
This paper reports an up-to-date ranked list of causes of cost overrun in Saudi Arabia from a sur... more This paper reports an up-to-date ranked list of causes of cost overrun in Saudi Arabia from a survey of 160 project managers of infrastructure projects. The top five causes were market conditions, design changes, the practice of assigning a contract to the lowest bidder, delays and design error. Assigning a contract to the lowest bidder is not ranked in the top five reasons in other countries. Other factors contributing to cost overrun of Saudi infrastructure projects include lack of contractor and consultant planning before the project, poor coordination with government agencies and parallel contracts, inconsistent management strategy, poor client staff communication and stakeholders' lack of participation during the conceptual phase. A cause unique to Saudi Arabia is due to the time it takes the Labour Ministry to issue labour visas to non-national workers.
The cost overrun of infrastructure projects potentially poses significant financial risks to the ... more The cost overrun of infrastructure projects potentially poses significant financial risks to the investment parties involved. Substantial cost overrun has been identified in infrastructureproject data from across 20 nations in five continents. Studies, in fact, show that the average cost overrun of infrastructure projects presents substantial fiscal risk (Flybjerg & COWI, 2004; Flybjerg et. al., 2009). Yet, over the last several decades, the magnitude of cost overrun of infrastructure projects has failed to improve, suggesting that no significant learning has occurred in mitigating its detrimental effects.
Cost overruns in infrastructure projects around the world is common which represents significant,... more Cost overruns in infrastructure projects around the world is common which represents significant, but avoidable, economic losses. Historical data over the last several decades indicates that cost performance has not improved over time -no significant learning has occurred. Studies have identified a wide spectrum of various causes for cost overruns in infrastructure projects. According to , the two main causes of cost overruns are: optimism bias and strategic misrepresentations. Other studies have found that factors such as lack of experience, the size of the project, mistakes in design, overall price fluctuations, inaccurate estimations and scope changes have impacts on cost overrun .
Many buildings around the world have undergone successive changes over their life cycles. These c... more Many buildings around the world have undergone successive changes over their life cycles. These changes might be in the building’s spatial, structural or service systems. This can be due to changes in the needs of occupants, the market demand or technological advances.
This paper proposes an Adaptable Buildings Design (ABD) framework to help design buildings that can adapt to change to increase the building’s longevity. Using this framework, uncertainties are first identified. Flexibility options are then embedded and design rules are formulated to trigger these options when necessary. The value of adaptability is then assessed by implementing several simulations using Real Options Analysis (ROA).
To demonstrate the approach, the ABD is applied to a multi-use commercial building case study. Flexibility is embedded in the building’s design across several systems allowing it to evolve over time based on a set of design rules. The building’s flexibility value is then assessed using ROA. The positive results obtained demonstrate the strength of the proposed methodology in addressing future change and uncertainties.
Uploads
Papers by Fahad Allahaim
This paper proposes an Adaptable Buildings Design (ABD) framework to help design buildings that can adapt to change to increase the building’s longevity. Using this framework, uncertainties are first identified. Flexibility options are then embedded and design rules are formulated to trigger these options when necessary. The value of adaptability is then assessed by implementing several simulations using Real Options Analysis (ROA).
To demonstrate the approach, the ABD is applied to a multi-use commercial building case study. Flexibility is embedded in the building’s design across several systems allowing it to evolve over time based on a set of design rules. The building’s flexibility value is then assessed using ROA. The positive results obtained demonstrate the strength of the proposed methodology in addressing future change and uncertainties.