Climate change and other biotic factors are causing desertification and degradation of the range ... more Climate change and other biotic factors are causing desertification and degradation of the range resources at an alarming rate especially in the arid and semiarid regions worldwide. The mountainous region of Sheikh Badin National Park (SBNP)-famous for its floristic composition and biodiversity, is facing serious consequences of climate and anthropogenic effects in Pakistan. The influential role of extreme climate changes needs to be explored to mitigate growing risk of degradation of natural vegetation and biological resource in this mountainous region. In the present study, relationship of the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) was investigated with the seasonal LST (Land Surface Temperature), and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission rainfall) rainfall data of 2000-2018 period in the SBNP of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan for sustaining the ecosystem health. The findings of the study revealed increasing trends in the NDVI during the winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons with corresponding increase in the rainfall in the study area. The correlation coefficient R value between the NDVI and the LST was found-0.37 for winter,-0.72 for spring,-0.002 for summer and-012 for autumn (significant at p<0.05). The correlation between the NDVI and the rainfall data revealed R values 0.41, 0.79, 0.64 and 0.7 for the winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons (significant at p<0.05), respectively. The rainfall appears to be a major determinant of vegetation health and consequent ecosystem sustainability in the study area. However, the seasonal changes in climate and their implications necessitate adoption of integrated management of ecosystem to conserve biological resources on sustainable basis in this region in future.
Environmental degradation is creating serious challenges for the spring water security in the mou... more Environmental degradation is creating serious challenges for the spring water security in the mountainous region of South Asia. The freshwater springs meeting the growing water demands of the numerous mountain communities are under a high strain due to changing climate and land degradation in the region. The current study aims to assess the spring distribution and vulnerability to land degradation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan using geospatial modeling techniques coupled with ground information. The study revealed a total of 2564 springs with a density of about 0.06 springs/km² in the study area. More than fifty percent of springs were observed in the 1000–1400 mm rainfall regime, pointing towards a high influence of precipitation in recharging the springs. The mean soil loss of over 48.8 tons/ha/yr was predicted in the area, the risk of which was found to be very high (>100 tons/ha/yr) over 12% and high (50–100 tons/ha/yr) over 8.1% of the area. Based on the land degradation analysis, over 20.4% of the springs appear to be highly vulnerable, 28.4% medium vulnerable, and 51.1% low vulnerable in the region. The restoration of the forest cover over mountain slopes and highland pastures can lessen overland flows and improve groundwater and spring resources. In-depth investigations of the hydrogeology and environmental implications could be helpful for sustainable management of the springs in the region. The study would provide a base for developing viable land and water conservation strategies to improve spring water security in the region in future.
Rapid growth in urban developments and climate change has put high pressure on the existing water... more Rapid growth in urban developments and climate change has put high pressure on the existing water resources in the arid region of South Asia. It is necessary to identify effective water management and adaptation strategies to minimize risks of a changing environment. The current study focuses on examining the potential of spring resource and significant factors in various ecologies of Balochistan, Pakistan. The findings of the study revealed a total of 10180 springs in the province, which exist in variable concentrations in different physiographic and rainfall regimes. The majority of springs, about 39.1%, were identified in the low mountains, 28.6% in the middle mountains, and 22.3% in the Siwaliks. The density was found to be high, i.e., about 0.11 springs/km² in the middle mountains, 0.08 springs/km² in the high mountains, and 0.04 springs/km² in the low mountains. The spring density was observed to be high, i.e., about 0.06 springs/km², in the >400 mm and 200-300 mm rainfall regimes, while it was noticed to be least, i.e., about 0.01 springs/km², in the <100 mm regime. The diversity in climate and physiography observed in different ecologies demands site-specific resource management and adaptations to climate change. An integrated water management approach adopting a suitable set of available technologies (rainwater harvesting, high-efficiency irrigation systems, and surface storage) could be beneficial to sustain agriculture in different water-stressed ecologies of the province.
Natural springs form a significant source of clean water for a large number of mountain communiti... more Natural springs form a significant source of clean water for a large number of mountain communities in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) region. Adequate knowledge and understanding of this resource are lacking in this region where water demand has already been increased manifold owing to growing urbanization and climate change. In the present study, prospects of springs have been investigated under different physiographic conditions in the HKH region of Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan for sustainable water resource management. Among 3864 springs identified in the region, a maximum of about 14.9% springs lie within 1500-2000 m elevation range followed by 14.8% within 1000-1500 m and 14% within 3500-4000 m range. A maximum of 1612 springs were observed over high mountains (>3000 m), followed by 927 springs over low mountains (1200-2000 m) and 842 over middle mountains (2000-3000 m). The spring density was observed maximum in the Himalaya (i.e., 0.05 springs/km2) followed by the Hindu Kush range (i.e., 0.04 springs/km2) and the Karakoram range (i.e., 0.01 springs/km2). Overall the density was found to be over 0.03 springs/km2 in the three HKH ranges. The spring indicated a positive relationship with annual rainfall (R2 value 0.79) highlighting the influence of rainfall in sustaining springs in the study area. The adoption of an integrated water resource management approach and efficient water use are essential to sustain spring resource in this mountainous region. In-depth research on the hydrodynamic characteristics of the mountain springs is essential in context of changing climate and land use to meet growing water demands and improve communities’ livelihoods in the HKH region in future.
Mountain regions are highly vulnerable in the context of soaring water demands owing to rapid urb... more Mountain regions are highly vulnerable in the context of soaring water demands owing to rapid urbanization, improved living standards, and climate change, which need immediate attention for sustainable development. The current study evaluated spring concentration in various agro-environments of Pakistan to ensure water security and sustainable development in the country. A total of 0.02 million springs were found throughout various physiographic regions of the country, with roughly 33.5% of them located in the low mountains and 21.8% in the middle mountains. The spring densities were observed to be high in the Azad Jammu and Kashmir (i.e., 0.08 springs/km²) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (i.e., 0.04 springs/km²), which may be attributed to substantial rainfall recharge and the presence of fractured rock formations here. The gravelly fans and terraces stretching over 9% of the country area contain about 12% springs with a density of over 0.02 springs/km². The spring density was observed high in the forest class, i.e., 0.08 springs/km², and the rangelands, i.e., about 0.04 springs/km², pointing towards the significance of vegetation cover in sustaining the spring ecosystem. The density of springs was maximum about 0.07 springs/km² in the >1000 mm rainfall zone, while it ranged within 0.01-0.02 springs/km² in other rainfall zones. The spring density exhibited an exponential relationship with the annual rainfall, indicated by an R² value of 0.76, underscoring the importance of rainfall in the formation and maintenance of springs in the region. Spring management requires multifaceted actions focusing both on supply and demand-side solutions, improving groundwater recharge and governance, and efficient water use in the country.
Changes in climate together with rapid urbanization are putting immense pressure on the existing ... more Changes in climate together with rapid urbanization are putting immense pressure on the existing agriculture and natural resources of South Asia. The agriculture productivity and livelihoods of the large number of communities have become highly vulnerable to inadequate supplies of water especially in the rainfed regions. In the present study, spatio-temporal changes in rainfall pattern have been analyzed in different agro-ecologies of Pakistan during 1960-2019 period for sustainable agriculture and natural resource management in the country. Major agro-ecologies identified in the country were western dry mountains over 19.1% area, western dry plateau over 14.4% area, sandy desert over 14% area and northern irrigated plain over 11.3% area of the country. An increase of 30.6% in annual rainfall was observed in the rainfed plateau zone, 14.2% in the piedmont plain and 5.9% in the western dry mountain zone during the 1960-2019 period. In contrast, the rainfall exhibited 3.2% decrease in the western dry plateau and 6.2% in the coastal zone which is critical for the subsistence agriculture in these arid ecologies. The excess rainwater may be conserved through developing storage/farm ponds and reservoirs for subsequent use during dry periods and recharging groundwater to build resilience against drought/flood conditions. The rainwater harvesting (RWH) has potential to sustain agriculture productivity and fulfill the growing needs of the population in the arid ecologies of the country. Regular monitoring of the water resource is essential in context of rapidly changing environment and growing needs of the population in this arid region in future.
The glaciated region of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) has become highly vulnerable to rapid changes... more The glaciated region of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) has become highly vulnerable to rapid changes in climate, coupled with the region's need for sustainable development. The increase in the frequency of climate and flooding-related calamities in recent decades demands more proactive strategies to combat floods and other extreme weather disasters in the region. This paper focuses on evaluating climate dynamics, GLOF risks, and nature-based risk management strategies for sustainable development in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalaya (HKH) region of the UIB, Pakistan. The mean annual rainfall exhibited an increase from 670 to 686 mm (2.4%) in the Hindu Kush, from 210 to 281 mm (33.8%) in the Karakoram, and from 737 to 798 mm (8.3%) in the Himalaya range during the 1960-2019 period. The majority of glacier-fed lakes in the Karakoram and Himalaya indicated an expansion in lake area. Climate change has influenced the cryosphere regime, leading to the frequent occurrence of flash floods/GLOF events resulting in environmental degradation, loss of infrastructure, property, and valuable lives downstream. Effective nature-based flood risk management needs to be promoted by preserving the natural ecosystem, enhancing its health, and strengthening the response capacity of vulnerable communities in the region. Launching afforestation and reforestation projects might help absorb shocks from flood hazards, reduce flood runoff, sediment loads, and socioeconomic susceptibility. It is essential to promote good practices of NBS in flood risk management through raising awareness, demonstration, and initiating educational programs. Capacity building of local communities and institutions through resource sharing, skills transfer, and enhanced knowledge dissemination is crucial to improve flood risk mitigation in vulnerable areas of the region. For effective GLOF risk management, local communities must be involved in the development of NBS measures at the policy level.
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