Papers by Daniel Sperling
Highway Administration. The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors who are resp... more Highway Administration. The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the State of California. This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. Report for MOU 225
Beijing could be an attractive region to initiate a hydrogen infrastructure for transportation. A... more Beijing could be an attractive region to initiate a hydrogen infrastructure for transportation. Air quality is poor, oil imports are soaring, and there is a desire to introduce innovative responses for the 2008 Olympics. If Beijing were to proceed to build hydrogen infrastructure before and after 2008, how they might proceed has not been addressed empirically or theoretically. We introduce the Hydrogen Infrastructure Transition (HIT) model and apply it to urban Beijing. HIT is a dynamic programming model, which generates the spatial and temporal infrastructure buildup decisions that minimize the net present value of capital and operating costs, carbon externalities, and refueling travel time disbenefits over time. HIT incorporates regionally specific spatial data to find optimal strategies for meeting an exogenously specified market penetration over time. Input assumptions can be varied to study how the optimal strategy depends on technological evolution, feedstock prices, carbon ta...
Beijing could be an attractive region to initiate a hydrogen infrastructure for transportation. A... more Beijing could be an attractive region to initiate a hydrogen infrastructure for transportation. Air quality is poor, oil imports are soaring, and there is a desire to introduce innovative responses for the 2008 Olympics. If Beijing were to proceed to build hydrogen infrastructure before and after 2008, how they might proceed has not been addressed empirically or theoretically. We introduce the Hydrogen Infrastructure Transition (HIT) model and apply it to urban Beijing. HIT is a dynamic programming model, which generates the spatial and temporal infrastructure buildup decisions that minimize the net present value of capital and operating costs, carbon externalities, and refueling travel time disbenefits over time. HIT incorporates regionally specific spatial data to find optimal strategies for meeting an exogenously specified market penetration over time. Input assumptions can be varied to study how the optimal strategy depends on technological evolution, feedstock prices, carbon ta...
Author(s): Hardman, Scott; Garas, Dahlia; Allen, Jeff; Axsen, Jonn; Beard, George; Dutschke, Elis... more Author(s): Hardman, Scott; Garas, Dahlia; Allen, Jeff; Axsen, Jonn; Beard, George; Dutschke, Elisabeth; Daina, Nicolo; Figenbaum, Erik; Jochem, Patrick; Nicholas, Michael; Plotz, Patrick; Refa, Nazir; Sovacool, Benjamin; Sperling, Daniel; Sprei, Frances; Tal, Gil | Abstract: Key Takeaways1. The electrification of passenger vehicles should be one part of a city’s transportation plan. Shifting from internal combustion engine vehicles to plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) can improve urban air quality, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and reduce energy consumption.2. Recent studies show that electric vehicle awareness is low even in mature markets; cities should promote electric vehicles to residents by leveraging existing promotional campaigns.3. Various financial and non-financial incentives can effectively encourage electric vehicle uptake, including: free, discounted, or preferential-location parking; free or reduced road and bridge tolls; and allowing electric vehicles to drive in b...
Innovative new products like plug-in electric vehicles may need new approaches to market and sell... more Innovative new products like plug-in electric vehicles may need new approaches to market and sell them. We conducted 43 interviews with automakers and dealers selling plug-in vehicles in California’s major metro markets and analyzed data on customer satisfaction with new car dealers and Tesla retail stores. Our initial findings revealed: • Plug-in vehicle buyers rated the dealer purchase experience much lower than conventional vehicle buyers while Tesla earned industry-high scores; • Plug-in vehicles returned higher dealer gross profits but may insufficiently compensate for greater demands, including the provision of support services beyond traditional offerings; • Public incentives could better align with established dealer practices and business drivers to improve program effectiveness. We consider how pre-existing retail configurations and arms-length manufacturer-dealer relations in the traditional franchised model could both enable and hinder retail innovations for PEVs. The pa...
Toward Integration of Vehicle and Fuel Regulation
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2010
Governments around the world are attempting to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with distinc... more Governments around the world are attempting to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with distinct fuel and vehicle policies. As alternative powertrains and fuels are introduced, vehicle–fuel interactions become more intense and policy design and effectiveness become more problematic. These interactions are analyzed for fuel providers complying with California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard program and automakers complying with the Pavley vehicle GHG emission standards. It is found that each program could significantly affect industry compliance in the other program once both programs are implemented. This analysis, in turn, indicates that continuing coevolving adjustments will be needed to ensure that rules directed at vehicle manufacturers and fuel providers result in the most cost-effective and efficient achievement of GHG and energy goals. Specific suggestions are offered for updating and upgrading the two regulatory programs. Although the findings are specific to California, th...
Toward a Transportation Policy Agenda for Climate Change
Driving Climate Change, 2007
Publisher Summary Most transport-related greenhouse gas (GHG) strategies are synergistic with exi... more Publisher Summary Most transport-related greenhouse gas (GHG) strategies are synergistic with existing policy initiatives; solutions to traffic congestion and air pollution and measures to improve transportation efficiency are each generally consistent with the goal of reducing transportation GHG emissions. Transportation-related energy use and resulting GHG emissions pose looming threats to economic growth, global environment, public health, and overall quality of life. To reduce GHG emissions from the entire transport sector broader changes are needed. Transportation growth is not limited to the Asia Pacific region. It is a significant component of growth in energy demand in virtually all rapidly developing economies. Meeting the expected growth in travel and therefore energy requires accelerated gains in vehicle efficiency, provision of timely and adequate alternative transportation services, increase in the diversity of the transportation energy mix, and integration in transport services to meet mobility and access needs through a seamless and efficient intermodal transportation network. If supply or demand challenges are not met, economic growth is compromised. The transportation sector must accept its proportionate responsibility in addressing this threat. Policy plays an important role in shaping the behavior of individuals and companies.
Demand Analysis
National Transportation Planning, 1982
Abstract: Local governments can have a large effect on carbon emissions through land use zoning, ... more Abstract: Local governments can have a large effect on carbon emissions through land use zoning, building codes, transport infrastructure investments, and support for transportation alternatives. Recognizing this, many cities have developed climate action plans, ...
Social Science Research Network, Nov 5, 2020
City carbon budgets: A proposal to align incentives for climate-friendly communities
Energy Policy, 2010
Local governments can have a large effect on carbon emissions through land use zoning, building c... more Local governments can have a large effect on carbon emissions through land use zoning, building codes, transport infrastructure investments, and support for transportation alternatives. This paper proposes a climate policy instrumentcity carbon budgetsthat ...
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2003
Fuel cells are widely expected to replace internal combustion engines in vehicles. However, their... more Fuel cells are widely expected to replace internal combustion engines in vehicles. However, their high initial costs preclude their introduction into the mass market for some time. A new approach is needed that focuses on niche markets. The potential use of fuel cells in auxiliary power units (APUs) on board various types of automobiles and trucks— in luxury passenger automobiles, law enforcement vehicles, contractor trucks, specialized utility trucks, recreational vehicles, refrigerated trucks, and line-haul heavy-duty trucks—is explored. Power requirements, volume and weight targets, costs, market sizes, and potential benefits for several fuel cell technologies and fuels are analyzed. The attributes of market applications are matched with fuel cell attributes to assess the market potential of fuel-cell APUs. Although data are insufficient and more analysis is needed, several market applications apparently could play key roles in introducing fuel cell technologies to the transporta...
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2013
Concerns about climate change, urban air pollution and dependence on unstable and expensive suppl... more Concerns about climate change, urban air pollution and dependence on unstable and expensive supplies of foreign oil have led policy-makers and researchers to investigate alternatives to conventional petroleum-fuelled internal-combustion-engine vehicles in transportation. Because vehicles that get some or all of their power from an electric drivetrain can have low or even zero emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and urban air pollutants, and can consume little or no petroleum, there is considerable interest in developing and evaluating advanced electric vehicles (EVs), including pure battery-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles. To help researchers and policy-makers assess the potential of EVs to mitigate climate change and reduce petroleum use, this paper discusses the technology of EVs, the infrastructure needed for their development, impacts on emissions of GHGs, petroleum use, materials use, lifetime costs, consumer accepta...
Diesel vehicle sales in the European Union have increased from 23% of all light duty vehicles sol... more Diesel vehicle sales in the European Union have increased from 23% of all light duty vehicles sold in 1994 to 41% in 2002. This rapid increase in market penetration is due to four related factors: a voluntary agreement by European automobile manufacturers in 1998 to reduce CO2 emissions from new light duty vehicles by 25% from 1995 levels by 2008; significant advances in diesel technology; preferential fuel and vehicle pricing in most European countries; and preferential European Union regulation of diesel emissions. However, the growth in sales is not uniform throughout Europe, largely due to differences in fuel and vehicle pricing.
This report documents the automotive industry's response to federal regulations of light duty... more This report documents the automotive industry's response to federal regulations of light duty vehicle tailpipe emissions, with the intent of identifying lessons learned that might be applicable to future regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. The focus is on 1975 and 1979-1981, when new standards took effect that led directly to the adoption of costly new emission control equipment. The costs were significant during those time periods — with almost all automakers installing new oxidation catalyst technology in the first time period and three-way catalytic converters in the second. However, prices of new vehicles did not appear to reflect the full costs of emissions control. Other cost and pricing considerations seemed to be even more important. The added compliance costs associated with emissions reduction were just one more factor used by companies in setting prices. Aggregate new car sales were affected only in a minor way by emissions regulations.
World Transport Policy and Practice, 1999
From: A Short History of Carsharing in the 90's. Journal of World Transport Policy & Practice... more From: A Short History of Carsharing in the 90's. Journal of World Transport Policy & Practice 5 (3), 18 - 40 The vast majority of automobile trips in U.S. metropolitan regions are drive-alone car trips. In 1990, approximately 90 percent of work trips and 58 percent of nonwork trips in the United States were made by vehicles with only one occupant (United States Department of Transportation, 1995). Vehicles are unused an average of 23 hours per day. This form of transportation is expensive and consumes large amounts of land. Private vehicles are attractive. Their universal appeal is demonstrated by rapid motorization rates, even in countries with high fuel prices, good transit systems, and relatively compact land development. But the environmental, resource, and social costs of widespread car use are also high. One strategy for retaining the benefits of car use while limiting costs is to create institutions for sharing vehicles. The principle of carsharing is simple: Individuals ...
Issues in Science and Technology, 2003
Motorization is transforming cities and even rural areas of the developing world. The economic an... more Motorization is transforming cities and even rural areas of the developing world. The economic and social benefits are enormous. It provides individual flexible transportation in urban areas and reduced manual labor and improved market access in rural areas. In the longer term, however, motorization may stifle local development, increase pollution, and create unprecedented safety hazards. Without careful attention to the motorization process, disaster looms for cities of the developing world-- disaster from which the industrialized countries cannot be isolated.
In 1996, California Partners in Advanced Transit and Highways (PATH) commissioned a project team ... more In 1996, California Partners in Advanced Transit and Highways (PATH) commissioned a project team led by the Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California at Davis with the Claremont Graduate School to undertake a review of the environmental impacts of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). The objectives of this project were to: 1) review previous qualitative and quantitative environmental assessments of ITS, from both field operational tests and modeling studies; 2) review the regulatory and policy contexts which encompass ITS; 3) develop a modeling framework suitable for assessing the short term (up to 10 years) environmental impacts of ITS; 4) identify those ITS technologies that have positive environmental effects; and 5) rank those technologies according to their energy and emission benefits. This evaluation of specific ITS technologies was to be performed within the context of legal and regulatory requirements, transport and environmental policy, State forec...
For those concerned about energy use and greenhouse gases in the transport sector, virtually all ... more For those concerned about energy use and greenhouse gases in the transport sector, virtually all trends are in the wrong direction -- in the US as well as in most other countries of the world: •Transit market share continues to drop, now accounting for less than 2% of passenger travel in the US; •vehicle use and ownership continues to set new records every year, with each licensed driver in the US now owning 1.1 vehicles and driving over 14,000 miles per year on average; •vehicles are getting larger and heavier every year; •fuel economy of new vehicles is worsening and is now at its lowest level in the US since the early 1980s; •GHG emissions from transportation are increasing at 2% per year in the US and at similar or higher rates in virtually all countries with expanding economies; •transportation accounts for an increasing share of increasing CO2 emissions virtually everywhere (increasing from 16.9% of worldwide total in 1971 to over 20% today). These trends are disturbing, but n...
Existing research into the supply side regulations for Plug-in electric Vehicles (PEVs) is mostly... more Existing research into the supply side regulations for Plug-in electric Vehicles (PEVs) is mostly focused on the California Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, or similar policy in other regions. 2. The mandate has had a positive impact on innovation activity with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) increasing research and development , forming partnerships, and fi ling electric vehicle related patents. 3. Research fi ndings indicate an association between increased ZEV sales and presence of a ZEV mandate, though it is diffi cult to determine causality. 4. The California ZEV mandate appears to have met its goals of accelerating industry investment in ZEV technology, discouraging industry procrastination, establishing initial supply chains, and signaling to the many related companies and governments that they should be engaging sooner and more deeply with the transition to ZEVs. 5. Regions without ZEV mandates may want to consider implementing such a regulation to similarly signal their intent to accelerate the transition to ZEVs. 6. Studies show that a stringent ZEV mandate has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas and criteria emissions from passenger transport. 7. Policymakers need to carefully plan a ZEV mandate and how it interacts with other policies regulations and initiatives, to avoid duplications or confl icting policy mechanisms, reduce disruptions, and help build the larger ZEV ecosystem of investments and actions.
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Papers by Daniel Sperling