Sam Gutterman

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“Social Security, Productivity, and Demographics”, Committee on Social Security–Retirement and Disability Income, April, 1999

The North American Actuarial Journal, Apr 1, 1999

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Mortality of Smoking by Gender

The North American Actuarial Journal, Jul 3, 2015

Exposure to cigarette smoke has had and will continue to have a huge effect on mortality. Signifi... more Exposure to cigarette smoke has had and will continue to have a huge effect on mortality. Significant differences in smoking prevalence rates by gender have contributed to varying levels and rates of improvement in mortality over the last several decades and are expected to continue to influence mortality improvement differently over the next several decades.

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Forecasting Changes in Mortality

The North American Actuarial Journal, Oct 1, 1998

In this article, we express a concern that certain commonly accepted methods of predicting mortal... more In this article, we express a concern that certain commonly accepted methods of predicting mortality will likely prove to be inadequate in the future. Specifically, the Lee-Carter method, which overall has been empirically successful, uses auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) technology and contains no structural mortality equation. This structure means that no information other than previous history can be introduced. We argue that rapid advances in medical science are taking place and that failure to reflect this information in our projection methodology will make resulting projections unsuitable.

E-Cigarettes: A Hazard or a Help?

The North American Actuarial Journal, Dec 18, 2019

A global debate has arisen regarding the relative benefits and harm resulting from the use of ele... more A global debate has arisen regarding the relative benefits and harm resulting from the use of electronic cigarettes (“e-cigarettes”). In some countries, such as the United Kingdom, the use of e-cigarettes (“vaping”) has been shown to help reduce addiction to combustible tobacco cigarette (“smoking”), which represents the leading preventable health hazard in many countries. In contrast, in other countries, such as the United States, e-cigarettes, which have attracted many adolescents and young adults who would not otherwise have started to smoke, represent an alternative delivery vehicle for nicotine or cannabis (marijuana) by expanding their markets, reducing nicotine cessation rates by means of a more convenient, healthier, and less offensive product. Although considered less harmful health-wise than smoking, the expected net effect of vaping remains controversial, as sufficient experience has not yet been accumulated to confirm the health impacts, especially over the long term. Nevertheless, viewed by themselves, e-cigarettes do represent a health hazard, with growing information regarding their adverse effects. The stakes of this debate are high—for individuals, society and the e-cigarette, tobacco, insurance, and health care industries. After highlighting the current use of e-cigarettes by adults and adolescents, this article summarizes current issues associated with e-cigarettes, highlighting their health effects; nicotine and addiction; initiation; smoking cessation and harm reduction; gateway to smoking; modifications; flavorings; secondhand aerosol; and new product innovations. It discusses the sources of disagreements and reactions from regulators and life insurers. In addition, the modeling, estimates, and uncertainties associated with mortality resulting from vaping are addressed. For life and health insurance, actuaries are assessing whether to treat e-cigarette users in a manner similar to those who smoke combustible tobacco cigarettes.

An Actuarial Issues Paper

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Obesity, Mortality, and the Obesity Paradox

The North American Actuarial Journal, Oct 1, 2016

The percentage of the population who are obese has grown dramatically on a worldwide basis over t... more The percentage of the population who are obese has grown dramatically on a worldwide basis over the last several decades, although the growth in the prevalence of obesity has slowed recently at a high level in the United States. Although there have been numerous studies of the effect of this trend on mortality, the findings have been inconsistent and controversial, in part because of methodological differences and the complexity of the relationships between obesity and mortality. The objective of this article is to discuss the issues surrounding these relationships and to shed light on the likely effects of the obesity epidemic on mortality. Of particular interest is the so-called obesity-mortality paradox, where mortality experience is lower for overweight and in some cases obese individuals than for those of normal weight. Although more recent studies of the relationship between mortality and obesity seem to indicate those who are obese have experienced a reduced percentage of additional mortality, this may in part be due to the shorter average time those currently obese have been exposed to their condition, the heterogeneity of the normal and obese populations, measurement issues including treatment of smokers and those who are ill, and study design limitations. An increased number of premature deaths may arise as more individuals who are obese are exposed for a longer period to excess adiposity. Although public policy issues surrounding obesity are being addressed with a great deal of activity and publicity, they have and will continue to prove quite challenging for both individuals and society to manage and overcome. The prevalence of obesity has had and will continue to have a significant effect on the mortality experience in most areas of actuarial practice. As a result, it is important for actuaries to enhance their understanding of these effects.

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Human Behavior: An Impediment to Future Mortality Improvement A Focus on Obesity and Related Matters

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SEC Announces Panelists and Agenda for July 9 Roundtable on Fair Value Accounting Standards

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced the panelists and agenda for its July 9 ro... more

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The Valuation of Future Cash Flows: An Actuarial Issues Paper

New York University Salomon Center series on financial markets and institutions, 2000

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The Coming Revolution in Insurance Accounting

The North American Actuarial Journal, 2002

... The focus on fair values promotes a prospective view of a financial statement's componen... more

Fertility and ageing – actuarial perspectives

British Actuarial Journal

Fertility, particularly at its current low level in many developed countries and high level in so... more Fertility, particularly at its current low level in many developed countries and high level in some less developed countries, is a key factor driving demographic, economic, and societal changes at local, national, and global levels. Population ageing due to low fertility and increasing longevity represents one of the most significant global megatrends and risks. Many countries are already experiencing population decline and rapid growth of their elderly populations, with implications for workforce size, economic development, health and pension schemes, and social security arrangements. Actuaries are well known for their work on mortality and morbidity, but they have rarely considered fertility and its proximate determinants, despite their demographic and economic effects. This paper explores key explanations and outcomes of past and projected future fertility trends, and the implications for actuaries and for political and economic decision-makers.

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Flood risk

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An Approach for Measurement of the Fair Value of Insurance Contracts

The paper explores developments through 2006 in the application of market-consistent concepts to ... more The paper explores developments through 2006 in the application of market-consistent concepts to the measurement of fair values of liabilities for financial reporting purposes. A set of criteria is presented that should be useful in the evaluation of proposed fair value measurement approaches where inputs based on prices observed in an active market with reliable transaction prices are not available. Based on these criteria, one approach is examined that might serve as a basis for the fair value measurement of the liability of life insurance contracts and other financial instruments issued by insurers. The margin under this approach is determined in a manner similar to that currently used under U.S. GAAP for an investment contract, a Funding Agreement–Backed Note Issuance Program (FANIP), which is calibrated to its transaction price. The approach is generalized by use of an insurance example, a 20-year term life insurance policy, to illustrate the concepts involved as they might be ...

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Long-Term Risks-- Estimation and Management

Financial economics theory and models have primaril y focused on a short-term horizon. Rational e... more Financial economics theory and models have primaril y focused on a short-term horizon. Rational expectations and financial economics grew up in the context of a capital market, addressing issues relevant to decision-making by th ose active in those markets, typically dominated by short-term financial instruments. Sub sequent to these developments, an increasing number of papers and theories have devel oped the field of behavioral economics, recognizing that not all such participan ts act in a strictly rational manner. Although these themes and theories have proven help ful to those with exposure to shortterm risks, they have not satisfactorily addressed th needs of those involved in longerterm obligations, such as actuaries involved in ins urance and pension programs. Actuaries have dealt with such risks through the us e of risk mitigation techniques such as asset/liability management and product features tha t spread these risks through risk transfer, pooling, diversification and o...

Human Behavior: An Impediment to Future Mortality Improvement A Focus on Obesity and Related Matters

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Climate Change and Mortality

guide to future developments. Detailed work will be required both in developing such tools for us... more guide to future developments. Detailed work will be required both in developing such tools for use globally by the profession, and at the local level in applying them to the analysis of the specific set of circumstances of a region or area. The authors of this paper have not attempted to derive an overall estimate of the number of deaths due to climate change, although on a worldwide basis mortality will likely be adversely affected by it and related factors. This reluctance is due to the uncertain extent of the effects on climate change and the attribution under future conditions, including the extent and success of future mitigation and adaptation efforts. It is something that demands further research and consideration.

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Quantification, Communication and Management

1. Executive Summary The recognition and management of the distinctive features of risk and uncer... more 1. Executive Summary The recognition and management of the distinctive features of risk and uncertainty underlie both the purpose of insurance and steer management’s actions, affecting all its stakeholders. The management of risk and uncertainty is a central function of an insurance company. As such, the issues addressed in this chapter are important to its many stakeholders, including boards, insurance supervisors and rating agencies, as well as to its Chief Risk Officer, the actuarial function and other insurance management. Sound application of risk and uncertainty management concepts will lead to more effective governance of an insurance company and its business, including their identification, quantification, management and communication. To highlight their differences, this chapter uses the following definitions: • Risk is the effect of variation that results from the random nature of the outcomes being studied (i.e., a quantity susceptible of measurement). • Uncertainty invol...

Principles Underlying Actuarial Science

The authors believe that the principles presented in this paper are based on fundamental concepts... more The authors believe that the principles presented in this paper are based on fundamental concepts that are relevant to most actuaries’ work. These principles are grounded in observation and experience and are intended to strengthen the reader’s understanding of the intellectual foundations of actuarial science, such as the role of models, the effect of preferences regarding risk and timing, the nature of actuarial risk and the basis for risk classification and financial security systems. This paper was developed over an extended period of time, during which the authors were members of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and Society of Actuaries (SOA) Joint Committee on Actuarial Principles. Drafts were exposed for comment on several occasions. Although the Boards of the two societies have decided that they will not develop a statement of general principles of actuarial science under their auspices, they

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Mortality of Smoking by Gender , by Sam Gutterman , FSA , FCAS , CERA , HonFIA 2014 Living to 100 Symposium

1. Background 2. Smoking prevalence 3. Methods of attributing deaths to smoking 4. Mortality 5. S... more

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Obesity and Mortality , by Sam Gutterman , FSA , CERA , FCAS , MAAA

1. Background 2. Mortality 2.1 Obesity paradox 2.2 Mortality results 2.3 Canada, Mexico and U.S. ... more

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