Roumeen Islam

The Great Crisis and Fiscal Institutions in Eastern and Central Europe and Central Asia

Social Science Research Network, 2010

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

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Growth Recovery in Southern Europe: A Dozen Lessons, Old and New

World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks, Nov 1, 2016

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

Volatility and Macroeconomic Paradigms for Rich and Poor

Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 2001

Michael Bruno has left us with legacies that include an empiricism free of ideology, a curiosity ... more Michael Bruno has left us with legacies that include an empiricism free of ideology, a curiosity about what the real facts are, a scepticism about the conventional wisdom, and a willingness to listen to a wide range of opinions. His interest in macroeconomics resulted in one of the most influential books of the 1980s, The Economics of Worldwide Stagflation, which examined why the conventional Phillips curve had been turned on its head by institutional mechanisms. His interest in macroeconomic policy was applied to real life when he led the successful Israeli heterodox inflation stabilization effort of 1985, first as adviser and then as central bank governor. As Chief Economist of the World Bank, he emphasized research and economic and sector work relative to lending activities and external relations. In research, while Chief Economist, he showed how high inflation was robustly and negatively related to economic growth, while there was little evidence of a robust relationship between inflation and growth at low rates of inflation (say below 40 per cent a year). Michael Bruno’s legacy lives on in the many people whom he inspired by being a good and curious listener and a thoughtful and non-ideological researcher. While inflation was the central macroeconomic issue of the 1980s,

Economic Management Sector Unit in the Europe and Central Asia Regional Office

Cevdet Denizer thanks to Amar Bhattacharya for providing financial support and encouragement duri... more

Volatility and Macroeconomic Paradigms for Rich and Poor

Advances in Macroeconomic Theory, 2001

Michael Bruno has left us with legacies that include an empiricism free of ideology, a curiosity ... more Michael Bruno has left us with legacies that include an empiricism free of ideology, a curiosity about what the real facts are, a scepticism about the conventional wisdom, and a willingness to listen to a wide range of opinions. His interest in macroeconomics resulted in one of the most influential books of the 1980s, The Economics of Worldwide Stagflation, which examined why the conventional Phillips curve had been turned on its head by institutional mechanisms. His interest in macroeconomic policy was applied to real life when he led the successful Israeli heterodox inflation stabilization effort of 1985, first as adviser and then as central bank governor. As Chief Economist of the World Bank, he emphasized research and economic and sector work relative to lending activities and external relations. In research, while Chief Economist, he showed how high inflation was robustly and negatively related to economic growth, while there was little evidence of a robust relationship between inflation and growth at low rates of inflation (say below 40 per cent a year). Michael Bruno’s legacy lives on in the many people whom he inspired by being a good and curious listener and a thoughtful and non-ideological researcher. While inflation was the central macroeconomic issue of the 1980s,

One More Time: What are Institutions and How Do They Change?

Policy Research Working Papers, Apr 30, 2018

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

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Sharing the Benefits of Innovation-Digitization: A Summary of Market Processes and Policy Suggestions

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

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Growing Faster, Finding Jobs: Choices for Morocco

Growth after Crisis in Europe: An Interdependence of Macroeconomic and Structural Policies

Cyprus Economic Policy Review, 2017

Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain entered a period of severe economic and financial stress in t... more Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain entered a period of severe economic and financial stress in the aftermath of the 2008-9 crisis. This paper compares the recovery experience of these countries in light of recent policy debates and research on the growth impact of macroeconomic and structural reforms. It highlights, (a) the primacy of total debt, private or public, in affecting the onset of, depth of, and recovery from economic crisis; (b) that the quality of the policies adopted to stabilize economies in the short run affects growth recovery in the long run; (c) that the relationship between financial system development and growth is complex; (d) that macroeconomic policies (fiscal and monetary) are most effective in supporting growth when they take into account structural conditions and country context; and (e) that policies must be adapted to global/regional conditions. A partial, rather than holistic, approach to policymaking may neglect to influence the binding constraints to ...

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Financial Systems, Growth, and Volatility: Searching for the Perfect Fit

Policy Research Working Papers, 2016

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

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Croatia - Justice sector public expenditure and institutional review : resourcing the justice sector for efficiency and performance

the European Commission (in Brussels and Zagreb). Emerging findings and draft recommendations wer... more the European Commission (in Brussels and Zagreb). Emerging findings and draft recommendations were shared with key stakeholders, including the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Finance, the courts, prosecution and Croatia's development partners (including the Netherlands Embassy in Zagreb, the Netherlands Ministry of Security and Justice and the Netherlands Judicial Council). The team is grateful for the suggestions and comments received. This Report was partly financed by the generosity of a contribution from the Netherlands Government through AgentschapNL. The World Bank team sincerely thanks Mr. Orsat Miljenic, Minister of Justice of Croatia and members of his leadership team and staff at Croatia's Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Finance, the Supreme Court, the State Attorney General's Office and other Croatian entities for their support for this work, and their suggestions and insights during report preparation. Thanks are also due to Mr. Branko Hrvatin, President of the Supreme Court; Mr. Mladen Bajic, State Attorney General of Croatia and Mr. Dragan Novosel, Deputy State Attorney General of Croatia. They, and their teams, encouraged our team to work on the issues covered in the report and provided advice and feedback at different stages of preparation of this Report.

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Hak memberitakan : peran pers dalam pembangunan ekonomi

Roumeen Islam ndustri media, baik yang publik maupun yang swasta, memainkan peran penting dalam e... more Roumeen Islam ndustri media, baik yang publik maupun yang swasta, memainkan peran penting dalam ekonomi-ekonomi apa pun. Media bisa memobilisasi dukungan untuk, atau menggalang oposisi terhadap, penguasa; menyoroti, atau tidak menyoroti, pandangan danlatau dosa-dosa industri; menyuarakan atau tidak menyuarakan suara rakyat. Atau, media sekadar menyebarkan informasi. Kelangsungan hidup industri media tergantung pada negara yang mengaturnya, pada belanja iklan yang dikeluarkan para pemasang iklan, dan pada konsumen yang dilayaninya. Menyeimbangkan tiga kelompok berbeda

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What Determines the Quality of Institutions?

Policy Research Working Papers, 2002

In trying to explain institutional quality, different Second, "social" variables, such as income ... more In trying to explain institutional quality, different Second, "social" variables, such as income inequality authors have come to conflicting conclusions. In tackling or ethnic diversity, are not associated with institutional the problem themselves, Islam and Montenegro show quality. The significance of the inequality variable three things. disappears when continent dummy variables are included First, openness is positively and pretty robustly for Africa and Latin America. associated with institutional quality. To minimize Third, features of specific institutions, such as freedom selection bias, the authors use data sets with the greatest of the press and checks and balances in the political crosscountry coverage, though they also test the system, are positively associated with overall perceptions significance of the variables for smaller sample sizes. The of institutional quality. These findings hold strongly results confirm that both natural and policy measures of across different data sets and samples even after the openness are important. Concentration of trade in authors control for the variables commonly used in the natural resource exports continues to be associated with literature. poor institutional quality after openness in trade is accounted for. This paper-a product of the Office of the Senior Vice President, Development Economics-is one in a series of background papers prepared for World Development Report 2002: Institutions for Markets. Copies of this paper are available free from the World Bank,

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The macroeconomics of public sector deficits: the case of Ghana

Policy Research Working Paper Series, 1991

Ghana's economic program after independence emphasized public investment and spending as the... more

Explaining growth volatility

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Shaken and stirred: Volatility and macroeconomic paradigms for rich and poor countries

Shaken and stirred: explaining growth volatility

Annual World Bank Conference …, 2001

Shaken and Stirred: Explaining Growth Volatility William Easterly, Roumeen Islam, and Joseph E. S... more

Informe sobre el desarrollo mundial 2002 : instituciones para los mercados

Todos los derechos reservados. No se permite la reproducción total o parcial de este libro ni el ... more Todos los derechos reservados. No se permite la reproducción total o parcial de este libro ni el almacenamiento en un sistema informático, ni la transmisión de cualquier forma o cualquier medio, electrónico, mecánico, fotocopia, registro u otros medios sin el permiso previo y por escrito de los titulares del Copyright.

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Kyrgyz Republic Country Economic Memorandum

The team would like to express its gratitude to authorities of the Government of the Kyrgyz Repub... more The team would like to express its gratitude to authorities of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic (including the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economy) for their guidance and close cooperation. The painting on the cover is Kyrgyz mazar. Sanju (Киргизский мазар. Санджу) by Nicholai Roerich, from 1925. The image is in the public domain. The Kyrgyz Republic has experienced modest and volatile economic expansion since the economy bottomed out from the transition recession in 1995, when GDP amounted to about half of its pre-independence levels. As a result of structural reforms at the start of transition, the emergence of remittances and commodity exports-largely gold-as powerful new drivers of growth, and improvements in the macroeconomic management in the recent decade, per-capita real GDP grew by 3.1 percent a year on average since 1995. The Kyrgyz Republic is now a lower middle-income economy, as it was in 1990. Economic expansion has benefitted from fixed investment that has risen to 31 percent of GDP, one of the highest in Europe and Central Asia and well-above the threshold of 25 percent reached by the group of successful countries studied by the Growth Commission in 2007. 1 Lower fiscal deficits and low inflation indicate the success of recent macroeconomic policies. These achievements notwithstanding, Kyrgyz Republic's growth and productivity performance has lagged most relevant comparators, frustrating the needs of the poor and the young. As a result, while per-capita GDP in constant prices has doubled since 1995, it has still not caught up with pre-independence levels. 2 Per-capita incomes in the Kyrgyz Republic have increased by 20 percent less than the average of lower middle-income countries since 2000 and 40 percent less than the average for the Caucasus and Central Asia. Productivity increases-proxied by changes in total factor productivity-have averaged half a percent since 2000, leaving largely factor accumulation as the driver of economic growth. And while "Productivity isn't everything, but in the long run it is almost everything"-highlighting one of the main challenges of the country's current growth model. 3 Poverty has declined, but modest growth has made a modest dent, leaving the poverty rate as high as 31 percent, with a substantial part of the population living in regions with more limited and lower quality government services than in Bishkek.

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Uzbekistan Public Expenditure Review

This Public Expenditure Review on Uzbekistan-the first since 2003-was prepared by a World Bank te... more This Public Expenditure Review on Uzbekistan-the first since 2003-was prepared by a World Bank team led by Ivailo Izvorski and Eskender Trushin and included: Alex Appiah-Koranteng (public wages and employment), Aristomene Varoudakis, Roumeen Islam, Maksudjon Safarov, David Lord, and Mitsunori Motohashi (state-owned enterprises), Ahya Ihsan (intergovernmental relations), Sergiy Zorya (agriculture), Ian Hawkesworth and Ferry Philipsen (public investment management), Sebastian James (tax exemptions), Elvira Anadolu (health), Janssen Teixeira (education), and Kenan Karakulah (data processing). Elena Klementyeva helped coordinate mission schedules, data requests, and translation work. Sarah Nankya Babirye also provided valuable assistance. The team was guided by Sandeep Mahajan (Practice Manager), Lilia Burunciuc (Country Director for Central Asia), and Hideki Mori (Country Manager). The team is indebted to government officials at all levels and the central bank for their openness and collaboration, and for providing key inputs, data, and help with the analysis. An earlier version of the report benefitted from valuable comments and suggestions at a presentation in

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