Ayla Ogus

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Data to evaluate macroprudential instruments in Turkey

This dataset contains data from October 2010 to December 2018 on macroprudential instruments empl... more

of Turkey’s current account

We analyze Turkey's current account optimality and sustainability between 1992 and 2004. Using th... more We analyze Turkey's current account optimality and sustainability between 1992 and 2004. Using the intertemporal benchmark model for Turkey's current account we test for its intertemporal solvency. Based on traditional and alternative tests (which account for persistence in the current account), we conclude that Turkey breached the intertemporal solvency condition in the sample period. In addition, stationarity tests of the deviation between actual and optimal net external liabilities series confirm that Turkey's current account deficit was unsustainable for that period. However, further econometric investigation and analysis of reforms causes us to question our conclusions of non-optimality and unsustainability of the Turkish current account for the latter part of the period. We are indebted to two anonymous referees for insightful comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank seminar participants at Middle Eastern Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, for comments on an earlier version of this paper. Responsibility for all errors remains with the authors.

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New Firm Creation in Turkey

This data set has new joint stock corporations and new limited liability companies created monthl... more This data set has new joint stock corporations and new limited liability companies created monthly between January 1995 and January 2019. The two most common types of companies in Turkey are and have been joint stock corporations and limited liability companies, together accounting for around 98 per cent of all new businesses created. The Turkish Commercial Code (Law No. 6762 of July 2, 1956) was in effect between 1.1.1957 and 1.7.2012 and shaped the economic and commercial activity in Turkey for over fifty years. The needs of the new millennium coupled with the harmonization process with EU legislation resulted in the new Turkish Commercial Code (Law No. 6102), which was enacted on January 13, 2011 and came into force on July 1, 2012. T he new Turkish Commercial Code decreased transaction costs for joint stock corporations relative to limited liability companies and led to a marked increase in the number of new firms adopting the corporation organizational form. Using this data we can investigate if the new commercial code resulted in a structural break in the choice of organizational form of new companies. The Bai-Perron procedure identifies a structural break that coincides with the new commercial code.

Analysis of Attendance in Turkish State Theatres: Evidence of the Veblen Effect?

Empirical Studies of the Arts, 2016

In this article, a system of equations is estimated, and the determinants of attendance for plays... more In this article, a system of equations is estimated, and the determinants of attendance for plays put on stage by the General Directorate of State Theatres in Turkey are investigated for the 2002 to 2003 season. We disaggregated attendance by type (discounted vs. single tickets) and by location. Our results suggest that the preferences of single and discounted ticket buyers are different. Specifically, we found that for discounted ticket holders, live theatre is negatively affected by price, but that for single ticket holders, the consumption of live theatre displays properties of the Veblen effect. We speculate whether this could be evidence of the Veblen effect for the consumption of the arts in general and for consumption of state financed live theatre for the Turkish case.

Proceedings of the Conference on Globalization and Its Discontents

Dasgupta and Heal’s 1974 paper extends Hotelling’s 1931 partial equilibrium model into a dynamic ... more Dasgupta and Heal’s 1974 paper extends Hotelling’s 1931 partial equilibrium model into a dynamic general equilibrium model. Both papers show that nonrenewable resource prices do grow exponentially, which is called the Hotelling’s rule in the literature. Empirical evidence on the contrary shows that most nonrenewable prices are constant in the long-run. The controversy between theory and empirical regulatory perhaps may be called the Hotelling’s Paradox. This paper, based on Dasgupta and Heal (1974), shows that nonrenewable dependent growth does not always generate skyrocketing resource prices. In particular, this paper shows that resource price converges to a constant under Cobb-Douglas technology and that the model economy dies out under a particular value of elasticity of marginal utility.

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On the optimality and sustainability of Turkey’s current account

Empirical Economics, 2008

We analyze Turkey’s current account optimality and sustainability between 1992 and 2004. Using th... more We analyze Turkey’s current account optimality and sustainability between 1992 and 2004. Using the intertemporal benchmark model for Turkey’s current account we test for its intertemporal solvency. Based on traditional and alternative tests (which account for persistence in the current account), we conclude that Turkey breached the intertemporal solvency condition in the sample period. In addition, stationarity tests of the

The Optimum Number of Links for Internet Companies

In this paper we analyze how linking a web site to other sites influences the number of visitors ... more In this paper we analyze how linking a web site to other sites influences the number of visitors to that site. In our model of web user behavior, web users are influenced by web site advertising, the quality of the web site, and their social network. Over time these factors cause a web user to visit some web sites more than others. We perform various experiments with a computer simulation that implements our model and conclude that linking to a popular web site is the most important factor in determining a web site&#x27;s popularity.

The Economics of Internet Companies

In this paper, we analyze the e ects of brand loyalty and network e ects on the fortunes of Inter... more In this paper, we analyze the e ects of brand loyalty and network e ects on the fortunes of Internet companies in an agent-based model. We nd that brand loyalty and network e ects produce interesting dynamics when included together in a simulated Internet which are very di erent from the dynamics observed when only one or neither of these e ects are present. If both brand loyalty and social communication are high, a loyal user can beconvinced to switch web sites, thus causing large and traumatic changes in the fortunes of the Internet companies.

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Energy Evaluation and Economic Impact Analysis of Green Roofs Applied to a Pilot Region in Aegean Coast of Turkey

Working Papers, 2010

This paper examines the energy savings, environmental benefits, and economic impact of green roof... more

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Achieving Turkey’s INDC Target: Assessments of NCCAP and INDC Documents and Proposing Conceivable Policies

Sustainability

In 2015, Turkey submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the United Na... more In 2015, Turkey submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) before the Paris Conference of the Parties (COP 21), expressing its intention to decrease emissions level at a rate of 21% from business as usual. This emissions reduction target is important as it is the first one for Turkey. However, Turkey faces unemployment problems and needs to sustain its growth. In this study, an Environmentally Extended Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), based on 2012 Input-Output data, was created, emissions reduction potentials of the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) together with the INDC were calculated, and alternative policies to reduce emissions to the target level and to boost the economy were proposed separately. The study finds that both the preparation and implementation of the previous national documents are problematic, and that Turkey was not meticulous about implementation of the climate mitigation policies in the previous national documents. The study also finds that reaching the emissions target with the INDC policies seems impossible and more conceivable policies are needed, and recommends that the INDC target and document itself should be revised substantially.

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Energy Savings and Economic Impact of Green Roofs: A Pilot Study

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade

Was There a Contagion during the Asian Crises?

The contagion of financial crises surrounding the markets around the world has been in the forefr... more The contagion of financial crises surrounding the markets around the world has been in the forefront of academic and public discussions. In this paper, we attempt to study the “contagion effect” of the stock market crises around the world by studying the correlations of global stock returns and volatility. We analyze the daily returns of major stock indexes around the world to discover the timing and path of the transmission of shocks that manifest themselves in stock market returns. We construct VARs of major stock market index returns and volatilities. Our work differs from the literature in analyzing spillover effects between emerging markets and other major stock markets.

An agent-based financial market with networks

In this paper we analyze network effects in an agent-based financial market. We investigate the s... more

T�rkiye''de Gelir Dagilimi

Iktisat Islet Finans, 2005

Proceedings of the International Conference on Human and Economic Resources

... Countries , pp 183-192 Selahattin Bekmez and Murat Komut Identifying the Role of Education in... more ... Countries , pp 183-192 Selahattin Bekmez and Murat Komut Identifying the Role of Education in Socio-Economic Development , pp 193-206 Francesco Burchi Convergence of Human Development Levels , pp 207-212 Fuat Erdal, Emre Can and Gaye Kocabas The Hotelling&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;#x27;s ...

Áreas De Dependencia Del Comercio Exterior Turco

Economia Exterior Estudios De La Revista Politica Exterior Sobre La Internacionalizacion De La Economia Espanola, 2005

Energy Evaluation and Economic Impact Analysis of Green Roofs Applied to a Pilot Region in Aegean Coast of Turkey

This paper examines the energy savings, environmental benefits, and economic impact of green roof... more This paper examines the energy savings, environmental benefits, and economic impact of green roof systems applied to a "micro" region in Western Turkey. This subdivision (Artur) in Karaağaç, Izmir, consists of 1729 residential units, mostly used as summer homes. The units are in 45m 2 , 60m 2 , 90m 2 , and 105m 2 sizes. Five different plant types were considered to be blended and planted in two different choices of growth media. Thermal benefits of the vegetated roofs to the pilot site were evaluated using appropriate heat transfer equations. For analyzing the impact of use of such systems on the local economy, monetary injection into the local economy was calculated and a multiplier effect of 2.66 was assumed. Net present value (NPV) of the generated income for the first 10 years was calculated to be approximately $14.5 million. In addition, approximately 300 new local jobs over a period of 10 years were estimated to be created.

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Increasing returns to information and survival of Istanbul public theatre plays

Http Dx Doi Org 10 1080 13504850600606083, Nov 23, 2007

In this article, we analyse the size and rank relationship for two administratively different pub... more In this article, we analyse the size and rank relationship for two administratively different public theatres, city and state, in Istanbul along with survival probabilities. We find returns to information for Istanbul public theatre plays. We present a comparison of our findings with related literature on Turkish state plays and Broadway shows. We find that the number of performances exhibits

Estimating the Size of Oil Tanker Spills

This paper estimates the determinants of the size of oil tanker spills. In the literature, spill ... more This paper estimates the determinants of the size of oil tanker spills. In the literature, spill size has been estimated but the results are not very strong. A review of the existing results is provided and the determinants of spill size using a sample selection model are estimated. Estimates from a Tobit regressions are also given to serve as a basis of comparison with the earlier work. One important nding is that groundings and collisions result in larger spills if there is a spill, but the likelihood that there will be a spill due to a grounding or collision is very low. Tanker size is found to have only a marginal e ect on the probability o f a spill and a dubious e ect on spill size. US ag tankers and new tankers are found to have a l o wer probability of causing spills compared to foreign ag and old tankers, respectively. US ag tankers do not have smaller spills when type of cargo variables are included in the analysis. So it is not straightforward to claim that US ag tankers have smaller spills due to stricter regulations.

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An Intertemporal Benchmark Model for Turkey�s Current Account

In this paper, we analyze the Turkish current account between 1992 and 2004 within an intertempor... more In this paper, we analyze the Turkish current account between 1992 and 2004 within an intertemporal benchmark model. Increasingly larger current account deficits in the Turkish economy have caused a great level of discussion of the current account but it has mainly focused on the real exchange rate and short-term international competitiveness. However, changes in the fundamentals of the Turkish economy warrant a longer term approach in the analysis. This paper computes the optimal consumption smoothing current account using the intertemporal benchmark model (IBM) and tests for intertemporal solvency of the current account. We find consumption tilting dynamics are in effect. As expected of borrowing developing countries, Turkey tilts consumption to the present. We find support for one of the implications of the IBM, that the current account Granger-causes future changes in national cash flow as implied by the intertemporal benchmark model. However, we also find that the actual consumption smoothing current account is considerably more volatile than the optimal consumption smoothing current account suggesting that speculative forces have driven capital movements during the sample period. From the trends in data and the model and testable implications we believe that although Turkey breached the intertemporal solvency condition in the 1990s, this is not true for Turkey in the period following the 2001 crisis. Therefore, we conclude that changed fundamentals in Turkey have made the high current account deficits sustainable.

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