Papers by Mohamad Al-Ississ
Management and Agricultural Policy in the Middle East and North Africa Dubai Initiative – Policy Brief
Through its partnerships with the government, the agricultural sector in the MENA has long engage... more Through its partnerships with the government, the agricultural sector in the MENA has long engaged in dubious accounting practices to raise its reported profits through artificially suppressing its costs. This has led to the current unsustainable exploitation of the scarce water resources in the region. That there is an acute water shortage in the MENA region is not in question. The per capita water share in the MENA is projected to be a mere fourteenth percent of the world average by the year 20251. By that year, if current trends continue, Jordan’s per capita water supply will fall from the current 200 cubic meters per person to only 91 cubic meters2. This is mere 9 % of where experts define water poor countries, putting Jordan in the category of having an absolute water shortage3. The problem results from the region’s shrinking water supply and exceedingly high and growing water demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Many of the MENA countries chose to follow the Import Subst...
Replication data for: What Does Health Reform Mean for the Health Care Industry? Evidence from the Massachusetts Special Senate Election
We exploit the surprise election of Republican Scott Brown to the US Senate to evaluate the marke... more We exploit the surprise election of Republican Scott Brown to the US Senate to evaluate the market's assessment of the impact of the recent US health reform legislation on the health care industry. We find that Brown's election was associated with abnormal returns of 2.1 percent and 6 percent for investments in the health care sector overall and managed care firms, respectively. Investments in the pharmaceutical sector experienced abnormal returns of 2.8 percent, while health care facilities (e.g., hospitals) experienced abnormal losses of 3.5 percent. Firms involved with Medicare Advantage benefitted more, while those involved with Medicaid Managed Care benefitted less from the election.
hksphd.harvard.edu. All errors and opinions expressed herein are my own. The Cross-Border Financial of Impact of Violence
This paper argues that violent events have two economic effects: a direct loss from the destructi... more This paper argues that violent events have two economic effects: a direct loss from the destruction of physical and human capital, and a reallocation of financial and economic resources. It documents the positive cross-border impact that follows violent events as a result of this reallocation. Thus, it reconciles the two existing perspectives in the literature on whether violence has a small or large economic effect. Our results show that, in globally integrated markets, the substitution of financial and economic activities away from afflicted countries magnifies their losses. This study evaluates certain factors affecting the impact of violence in non-event countries. Geographic distance from the event country is not monotonic in its effect on the valuation of equities of other countries. Also, the safer a non-event country is perceived to be relative to the event country, the greater the positive impact on its financial market. Finally, event countries with deeper financial market...
This paper examines whether an instrument commonly used to mitigate risk, insurance, also promote... more This paper examines whether an instrument commonly used to mitigate risk, insurance, also promotes trust. We employ a binary-choice trust game and show that theoretically, the answer is not obvious. Principals are confronted with a complex optimization problem: insurance lowers the cost of betrayal but if agents are inequality averse or reciprocally motivated, it also increases its likelihood. In experiments in Jordan and the US, trustworthiness decreases as insurance increases. The relationship between insurance and trust is not significant in Jordan and positive in the US. When designing institutions, both cultural factors and social preferences should be taken into account.
Individual Preferences for Democracy In the Arab World Explaining the Gap
We take a new look at the question of the Arab democratic exception. We use the new sixth wave of... more We take a new look at the question of the Arab democratic exception. We use the new sixth wave of the World Value Survey, which was collected between 2012 and 2013, and which included for the first time 12 Arab countries, up from only four in wave 5. We innovate empirically, by measuring the demand for democracy in a more robust way than past studies, and conceptually, by looking at how the forces of modernist aspirations, economic grievances, social preferences, and attachment to the status-quo interact for particular socio-economic groups to determine their preference for a democratic order over an autocratic one, and how these are affected in the Arab region by specificities related to self-interest, culture, and policy. Our statistical analysis reveals a democratic gap in the Arab region, which is correlated, and thus possibly explained in parts, by lower emancipative effects of education among the educated, compared to global experience. We argue that these effects must have be...
Statement by the Hon. Mohamad Al-Ississ, Governor for Jordan at the 2019 Annual Meetings : Governor's Statement No. 11
Diffusion of Dissidence in Arab Public Opinion
Research Papers in Economics, 2014
We are investigating the contagion effect in dissidence in public opinion. In other words, the qu... more We are investigating the contagion effect in dissidence in public opinion. In other words, the question is whether the behavior of dissidence in neighboring countries interacted through public opinion or not. We also investigate whether the diffusion dynamics changed after the start of the uprisings in the spring of 2011. We exploit data from Gallup polls conducted over seven waves during the period from 2009 to 2012 covering 22 Arab countries. Respondents were asked several questions ranging from their opinion on government role, employment, financial sector and role of women in society. We focus our study on three areas that are potential precursor to public dissidence. These are perception of corruption, economic inclusion, and physical wellbeing. Interestingly, our results suggest that there is indeed diffusion in public dissidence across Arab countries in the economic inclusion and wellbeing but not in perception of corruption. Additionally, the evolvement of the uprisings affe...
Politics and Governance, 2016
We take a new look at the question of the Arab democratic exception by looking at the preference ... more We take a new look at the question of the Arab democratic exception by looking at the preference for democracy among individuals in the Arab world in a comparative context. We use the new sixth wave of the World Value Survey, which was collected between 2012 and 2013, and which included for the first time 12 Arab countries (up from only four in wave 5) and 68 non-Arab countries. We innovate empirically by measuring the preference for democracy over strong rule in a way that, we argue, is more adapted to an understanding of the Arab world than other measures used in past studies. Our statistical analysis reveals a democratic gap in the Arab region compared to global experience, which is especially marked among the more educated individuals, and to a lesser extent among the youth and the middle class. We conclude by discussing the reasons that may explain the Arab exceptionalism, and argue that it is unlikely to be related to culture alone.
The role of beliefs in financial markets: Three essays on violence, trust, and religion
Risk mitigation and trust: Experimental Evidence from Jordan and the United States
Journal of Economic Psychology, 2016
This paper examines how trust and trustworthiness respond to lowering the principal’s risk in cul... more This paper examines how trust and trustworthiness respond to lowering the principal’s risk in cultural settings focused on risk mitigation vs. risk prevention. We employ a binary-choice trust game and show that principals are confronted with a complex optimization problem: risk mitigation lowers the principal’s cost of betrayal but if agents are inequality averse or reciprocally minded, it can also increase its likelihood. This may be exacerbated in cultures not used to fostering trust by risk mitigation. Our experiments suggest that lowering risk only increases trust in the United States but not in Jordan. In both countries, trustworthiness decreases as the principal’s vulnerability decreases. We extend our findings to naturally occurring vulnerabilities in addition to the financial ones created in the laboratory.
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 2015
We use Muslim holy days to investigate the underlying mechanism behind the holiday effect. Muslim... more We use Muslim holy days to investigate the underlying mechanism behind the holiday effect. Muslim holy days are exceptionally conducive to isolating the holy day effect. The study documents a positive change in stock returns during Ramadan. The significance and magnitude of the effect is consistent with the heterogeneity of worship intensity during Ramadan. Five possible causal channels are explored. We find support for a change in the composition of traded stocks according to their riskiness on holy days. Additionally, the mood channel is supported through documenting a negative effect on Ashoura linked to the proportion of Shia in a country.
Patronage and ideology in electoral behavior: Evidence from Egypt's first presidential elections
European Journal of Political Economy, 2015
ABSTRACT This paper investigates the impact of patronage and ideology on voter behavior and elect... more ABSTRACT This paper investigates the impact of patronage and ideology on voter behavior and election outcomes. Egypt's first free presidential elections represent a good case study to answer the question whether private gain outweighs ideology in voter behavior on a broader level. First, we combine election results with household surveys and national statistics to estimate the impact of patronage (measured by public employment) on voting for the pre-revolution regime candidate. Second, using results of the first round of elections as a proxy for ideology, we test for the effect of ideological preferences on voting behavior. Additionally, we test for candidates' ability to mobilize supporters. Our results suggest that patronage has a stronger effect than secularist ideology but a weaker effect than pro-change ideology. Results show that the number of public sector and government employees in each electoral district has a positive impact on participation rates.
The Cross-Border Impact of Political Violence
Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 2015
This paper documents the reallocation of financial and economic resources after political violenc... more This paper documents the reallocation of financial and economic resources after political violence to other countries. It analyzes the impact of 66 political violence events that took place in 32 countries on 57 stock exchanges over a period of 20 years. Using the event study methodology, this paper is the first to document a positive financial impact from political violence in other countries. The results show that in globally integrated markets, the substitution of financial and economic activities away from afflicted countries magnifies their losses. On average over a 20 day window, event countries suffered a 2.9% drop in stock valuation while other countries picked a windfall of 0.8%. Additionally, the paper investigates the geographic, economic, and risk determinants of this cross-border flow of capital.
Bias in Aid Allocation? Genetic Distance-Based Evidence
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013
ABSTRACT Do donor countries send more bilateral aid to recipients who are ethnically closer to th... more ABSTRACT Do donor countries send more bilateral aid to recipients who are ethnically closer to them? This question is explored using a unique dataset on genetic distance which proxies for the time since two populations last shared a common ancestor. We control for conventional determinants of aid allocation and introduce new controls measuring economic, cultural and geographic distance between countries. We find that donor countries send more aid to genetically closer recipient countries. We investigate three potential causal mechanisms: immigrant lobbying, discrimination, and increased trust between ethnically similar people. Consistent with the trust literature, we find evidence for the latter.
Restoring Trust in Organizations and LeadersEnduring Challenges and Emerging Answers, 2012
In spite of the important role religion plays in peoples' lives, its impact on financial mar... more In spite of the important role religion plays in peoples' lives, its impact on financial markets is seldom researched. This study examines the effect of religious experience during the Muslim holy days of Ramadan and Ashoura on the daily returns and trading volumes of 17 Muslim financial markets. Muslim holy days are especially conducive to isolating the elusive effect of faith and decoupling it from potential contaminants. The study documents statistically significant drops in the trading volume and changes in daily stock returns associated with religious experiences on these holy days. The effect on returns is not unidirectional as Ramadan yields a positive impact on daily returns while Ashoura is associated with a negative effect. Ramadan's more sacred days are associated with a higher magnitude effect culminating on its holiest day, Ramadan 27th. The study utilizes the heterogeneity of worship intensity within the month of Ramadan to validate that the documented effect...
JPAM Doctoral Dissertation Listing 2010
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2011
Acey, Charisma Shont'e, Exit, Voice, Loyalty and Structural Silence: Citizen-Consumer Access... more Acey, Charisma Shont'e, Exit, Voice, Loyalty and Structural Silence: Citizen-Consumer Access and Behavior in Nigeria's Urban Water Markets, School of Public Affairs, University of California, Los Angeles. Achvarina, Vera, Child Soldiers in Intrastate Conflicts: An Empirical Analysis, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Pittsburgh. Adger, Jennifer, Quantifying the Worst of the Worst: Victim, Offender and Crime Characteristics Contributing to “Heinous, Atrocious or Cruel” Findings in Alabama, American University, School of ...
Does Insurance Increase Trust? Experimental Evidence on Institutional Design
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2013
We exploit the surprise election of Republican Scott Brown to the US Senate to evaluate the marke... more We exploit the surprise election of Republican Scott Brown to the US Senate to evaluate the market's assessment of the impact of the recent US health reform legislation on the health care industry. We find that Brown's election was associated with abnormal returns of 2.1 percent and 6 percent for investments in the health care sector overall and managed care firms, respectively. Investments in the pharmaceutical sector experienced abnormal returns of 2.8 percent, while health care facilities (e.g., hospitals) experienced abnormal losses of 3.5 percent. Firms involved with Medicare Advantage benefitted more, while those involved with Medicaid Managed Care benefitted less from the election. (JEL D72, H51, I11, I18)
The Cross-Border Financial Impact of Violence
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Papers by Mohamad Al-Ississ