Md Abul Hasan

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I am a PhD candidate at the National Research University Higher School of Economics in Moscow, Russia. My areas of research interest include South Asian regional and international politics, geopolitics, and Bangladesh's foreign policy.
Supervisors: Prof. Alexander Lukin
Phone: 89776334755

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Papers by Md Abul Hasan

Is War Rational or Miscalculation and Misperception Matter?

International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications (IJSRP), 2020

War is costly and it consumes the taste of blood of fighters who are negaged in war and of innoce... more War is costly and it consumes the taste of blood of fighters who are negaged in war and of innocent citizens. It temporarily satisfy the winners and suffers the lossers, but in longrun, both parties suffer. Rationality or miscalculation and misperception always play key roles in determining the potential outcome of wars by the experts and leaders. States' leaders, sometimes, do not calculate the overall impact of war in the internal affairs of the states except their winning in elections through mechanism. Findings show that relative power is often not a good predictor of outcomes of Wars. Our research found and conclude that war is mostly irrational (that means miscalculation and misperception matter) when it is considered from the initiator point of view, but it would be rational when States want to defend themselves against other threat(s), especially in destructive conflicts, but it should follow the international war rules and regulations.

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The Reasons for War and Social Choice

Journal of Social and Political Sciences, 2020

War is a hunter of millions of lives, destruction of resoueces, but war sometimes could be the al... more War is a hunter of millions of lives, destruction of resoueces, but war sometimes could be the alternative choice of people, leaders, and policy makers.Wars are mostly responsible for intelligence failure and bad crisis management. Scholars have exposed various propositions as causes of war and debated if war is rational or if it is either miscalculation and misperception, which led to the initiation of war. Leaders, in many cases, have initiated wars either for their own interest (e.g. winning in election) or sate's national sovereignty. In some cases, wars are considered as a public choice whether people are solely aware of the benefits of war or they are misunderstood by the leaders. Our research have found that misunderstanding, intelligence failure and inadequate foreign policy management, as well as standing of a country, are mainly responsible for engaging in war. Findings show that public opinion is volatile, and could be changed over time. That is why war often cannot be considered as a social choice. Therefore, our research proposes a further research on the concept of war as social choice.

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Is War Rational or Miscalculation and Misperception Matter

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Exploring the Intricate Future of Bangladesh in the Context of Regional Geopolitical Dynamics

Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law, 2025

Bangladesh serves as a vital nexus between South and Southeast Asia, holding considerable strateg... more Bangladesh serves as a vital nexus between South and Southeast Asia, holding considerable strategic importance for all major regional and global players. This article aims to analyze Bangladesh’s future within the context of complex regional dynamics and its foreign policy responses. The author investigates how the rising geopolitical competition and rivalries among major powers, along with their significant impacts on Bangladesh, generate notable challenges for the nation. To understand Dhaka’s strategies towards these po- wers, the study has involved a detailed review of recent scholarly literature, fieldwork, and in-depth interviews. The analysis posits that Bangladesh adopts a moderate foreign policy to sustain hedging relations with all key regional and extra-regional powers. Nevertheless, Dhaka’s capacity to implement its foreign policies effectively is hampered by its inability to establish leverage over dominant powers. The article concludes that the influences of key powers in Bangladesh’s political landscape could lead the country to align with a specific power bloc or maintain neutrality in the near future, contingent upon the evolving regional and global political dynamics. Thus, the study suggests that by devising its short and long-term plans and strategies, Bangladesh can create leverage and remain on the right track without falling into the trap of geopolitics.

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Bangladesh's Hedging Foreign Relations: The Dilemmas of a Weak State

Asia and Africa today, 2024

The principle of non-alignment has been a cornerstone of Bangladesh's foreign policy since its in... more The principle of non-alignment has been a cornerstone of Bangladesh's foreign policy since its inception, holding significant relevance within both regional and global political contexts. But over time, local and external factors have caused the nation to stray from its founding ideals. The author attempts to explore Bangladesh's foreign relations choices, examining its historical context and response to major power dynamics in the region. The paper seeks to unravel how Bangladesh has been a mecca of hegemonic power. By reviewing literature on geopolitics, Bangladesh's foreign relations, and hegemonic powers, as well as in-depth expert interviews and scrutiny of media reports, articles, and dialogue, this study delves into the key powers' dilemmas towards Bangladesh amidst its domestic upheaval. Three key explanatory variables emerge: first, its strategic geographic location and geopolitical significance-the interests of major powers; second, its economic potential and security dynamics; and finally, its domestic "winners take all" politics and the involvement of external powers. This study emphasizes that Bangladesh's autonomy is fundamentally dependent on the goodwill of its political elites and highlights that failures in managing hedging relationships with each dominant power could lead to falling into the trap of geopolitics-financial crises and security risks.

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The dilemmas of Bangladesh as a weak state in South Asia

Public Administration and Policy: An Asia-Pacific Journal, 2024

Purpose-The complex environment of regional and extra-regional politics in South Asia renders the... more Purpose-The complex environment of regional and extra-regional politics in South Asia renders the region more susceptible to economically and militarily weaker states. This article investigates the challenges Bangladesh faces due to rapidly changing geopolitical dynamics and global political and economic upheavals.

Design/methodology/approach-This study delves into the dilemmas encountered by Bangladesh as a weak state through literature review, in-depth interviews, media reports and dialogues.

Findings-Four key factors are identified: (a) Bangladesh's significance to major powers has increased; (b) it confronts many obstacles hindering its pursuit of a purely non-aligned foreign policy due to its strategic importance to these powers; (c) its internal factors including political turbulence, corruption, and fragile external relations, have been detrimental; and (d) the intensification of key powers' influence has constrained its autonomy.

Originality/value-This study underscores that weak institutions, least regional integration, and limited cooperation among states have compromised the autonomy of weak states like Bangladesh in South Asia. There is a need for unity and collaboration among these nations to address dilemmas in the interest of their national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and regional stability.

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Md Abul Hasan

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