Papers by Mauricio Cartes
IAHS-AISH publication, 2006
The snow cover and its temporal evolution in a region are simulated by solving the energy and mas... more The snow cover and its temporal evolution in a region are simulated by solving the energy and mass balance equations on each element of a regular grid of 200 m. The meteorological variables required as inputs for the simulation model are obtained from the 24-hour lead time forecasts of a mesoscale meteorological model, known as MM5/DGF, and artificially increasing its spatial resolution. The procedure is validated for the mountainous Maipo River watershed, Chile. The results obtained are compared with satellite images and snowmelt volumes observed at some gauges in the region. A standard error of 24% is obtained for the snow cover and an error of only 11% is obtained for the total period snowmelt volume, which indicates the potential use of the model for forecasting this variable in ungauged basins.
Recent updates to climate change scenarios developed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Proj... more Recent updates to climate change scenarios developed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to compare water resources availability in an Andean mountainous snow- dominated watershed, Maipo en San Alfonso, located in the vicinity of Chile's capital city, Santiago. monthly hydrologic simulations for a base line period and future scenarios are carried out through the software WEAP, considering precipitation and temperature monthly time series predicted for scenarios A2 by GCM MK3.0, as well as for RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios by GCM MK3.6. Ensembles given by the GCM MK3.6 are used as inputs to the hydrological model to obtain uncertainty of water availability projections. Future hydrological simulations are carried out from years 2011 to 2070. Results show that mean annual flows tend to decrease by 8%, essentially during the snowmelt period for A2 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Nevertheless for the RCP 2.6 scenario, the tendency to decrease is reversed at t...
Forecasts of monthly streamflow during the snowmelt season are highly relevant for real-time deci... more Forecasts of monthly streamflow during the snowmelt season are highly relevant for real-time decision making such as hydropower production scheduling, irrigation planning, and water transfers in market-driven water resource systems. The Chilean water bureau issues such forecasts, for a number of snowmelt-driven watersheds in northern and central Chile, based on measurements from a sparse network of snow course stations. This
Landslides, 2014
In March 2012, during the rainy season in the Altiplano plateau, a >100-year return period rainfa... more In March 2012, during the rainy season in the Altiplano plateau, a >100-year return period rainfall event affected the deeply incised valleys of the Precordillera of the Tarapacá Region, northern Chile. This extreme event in a very arid region triggered a number of debris and mud flows that caused severe damage and destruction in several small villages along the Camiña and Tarapacá valleys. The highly vulnerable location of the villages on top of alluvial fans due to socioeconomic and cultural reasons is a key factor to explain the level of destruction in most villages. In this paper, this unusual, remarkable landslide event is described, and the hazard faced by these settlements for future rainfall episodes and possible mitigation measures are discussed.
Estimating snowmelt volume using snow cover distribution modelling
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Papers by Mauricio Cartes