This article examines manufacturing export determinants across Mexican states and regions from 20... more This article examines manufacturing export determinants across Mexican states and regions from 2007 to 2015, paying particular attention to the role of FDI. The analysis considers internal and external determinants of manufacturing exports under static and dynamic panel data methods, obtaining three main results. First, the ratio of manufacturing to total GDP is the most consistent determinant explaining exports performance, regardless of the econometric specification employed. Second, static panel data estimations under GMM techniques suggest different sensitivity to FDI across regions, with the Mexico-U.S. border region observing the strongest short-term effect of FDI on manufacturing exports. Finally, using dynamic panel data methods, we observe a significant persistence and similar long-term effects of FDI across most of the regions on the exporting manufacturing sector.
Based on the national Input-Output Matrix (IOM) 2012 calculated by INEGI, we estimate with the Fl... more Based on the national Input-Output Matrix (IOM) 2012 calculated by INEGI, we estimate with the Flegg approach four regional Input-Output Matrices (RIOMs) using Banco de México’s regionalization (Northern, North-Central, Central and Southern). These RIOMs are employed to evaluate the impact on regional gross output, value added and employment from a 10,000 million dollar shock on Mexican manufacturing exports. The results show that the effects on the absolute values of gross output, value added and employment in the North are clearly larger than those estimated for the other regions. Another finding is that the total effects of the regional shocks tend to concentrate in the manufacturing sector, with the highest concentration observed in the North, and the lowest in the South. It is also shown that the North is, by far, the region experiencing the greatest change in its value added relative to GDP, followed by the North Central, the Central and the South. The results suggest a strong...
Based on the national Input-Output Matrix (IOM) 2012 calculated by INEGI, we use Flegg's approach... more Based on the national Input-Output Matrix (IOM) 2012 calculated by INEGI, we use Flegg's approach to estimate four regional Input-Output Matrices (RIOMs) using Banco de México's regionalization (Northern, North-Central, Central and Southern). The RIOMs are employed to evaluate the impact on regional gross output, value added and employment resulting from a 10,000 million dollar shock on Mexican manufacturing exports. The results show that the effects on the absolute values of gross output, value added and employment in the North are clearly larger than those estimated for the other regions. Another finding is that the total effects of the regional shocks tend to concentrate in the manufacturing sector, with the highest concentration observed in the North, and the lowest in the South. We also find that indirect effects of these shocks tend to be larger in regions far from the US border.
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Papers by Jorge Alvarado