Papers by Godwin Osaghale
Journal , 2025
This paper investigates seasonal and cyclical patterns in Nigeria's equity market using the NGX A... more This paper investigates seasonal and cyclical patterns in Nigeria's equity market using the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) from 2012 to 2025. It used descriptive statistics to examine day-of-week, monthly, quarterly, and election-year patterns, alongside changes in volumes and downside risk captured through drawdowns. The results indicate that timing effects exist but are narrower than textbook anomalies: Wednesdays and late-year (Q4/December) periods consistently outperform, while Fridays and early Q1 (February-March) underperform. Contrary to conventional expectations, the "January effect" and "Santa Rally" are not robust in the NGX; instead, December and May emerge as the strongest months. Election cycles exert a powerful influence, with 2015 and 2019 posting steep annual losses (-12% to-17%), while 2023 broke the pattern with a +40% gain amid reforms and liquidity inflows. Drawdowns remain a structural feature, often reaching-40% to-55%, with an average recovery time of about three months (87 days). Volume patterns confirm liquidity clustering midweek and in select months, highlighting its role as a confirmation rather than predictive signal. This paper conclude that investors must pair seasonal insights with event awareness and disciplined drawdown management, as timing advantages alone are insufficient in Nigeria's high-volatility frontier market.
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Papers by Godwin Osaghale