Papers by Enobong Udoumoh
Fudma Journal of Sciences, Mar 4, 2024
This study investigates the symmetric and asymmetric characteristics as well as the persistence o... more This study investigates the symmetric and asymmetric characteristics as well as the persistence of shocks in the Nigerian crude oil returns, utilizing monthly and daily crude oil prices spanning from January 2006 to September 2022 and November 3, 2009, to November 4, 2022, respectively. Descriptive statistics, normality measures, time plots, and the Dickey-Fuller Generalized Least Squares unit root test were employed to analyze the series properties. Symmetric ARMA (1,1)-GARCH (2,1) and asymmetric ARMA (1,1)-TARCH (2,1) models for monthly and daily returns, with varying innovation densities, were utilized, alongside symmetric GARCH (1,1) and asymmetric TARCH (1,1) models. Model selection criteria including AIC, SIC, HQC, and log likelihood guided the order and error distribution selection. Results revealed non-normal distributions for both monthly and daily prices and returns, non-stationarity in prices, and weak stationarity in log returns with ARCH effects detected in both returns. Symmetric models exhibited volatility clustering, high shocks persistence, mean-reverting behaviour, and predictability in both returns. Asymmetric models identified asymmetry with leverage effects in both returns, indicating that negative shocks induce greater volatility than positive shocks of the same magnitude. Mean reversion and volatility half-life findings suggested that crude oil prices tend to revert to their long-run averages. The study recommended promoting market information flow and aggressive trading to enhance market depth and mitigate the volatile nature of the Nigerian crude oil market.
Salvage Value from Deterioration (SVD): An Optimal Inventory Model for Chicken Egg Marketing
Fudma Journal of Sciences, Mar 2, 2024
This study aimed to model COVID-19 daily cases in Nigeria, focusing on confirmed, active, critica... more This study aimed to model COVID-19 daily cases in Nigeria, focusing on confirmed, active, critical, recovered, and death cases using count data regression models. Three count data regression models-Poisson regression, Negative Binomial regression, and Generalized Poisson regression were applied to predict COVID-19 related deaths based on the mentioned variables. Secondary data from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) between February 29, 2020, and October 19, 2020, were used. The study found that Poisson Regression could not handle over-dispersion inherent in the data. Consequently, Negative Binomial Regression and Generalized Poisson Regression were considered, with Generalized Poisson Regression identified as the best model through performance criteria such as-2 log likelihood (-2logL), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The study revealed positive and significant impacts of confirmed, active, and critical cases on COVID-19 related deaths, while recovered cases had a negative effect. Recommendations included increased attention to confirmed, active, and critical cases by relevant authorities to mitigate COVID-19-related deaths in Nigeria.
A Bayesian Simulation Modeling Approach to Predicting Maternal Age-Specific Infant Survival Outcomes with Incomplete Data
FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES - ISSN: 2616-1370, Dec 31, 2019
Predicting infant survival rates using the Classical Binary Logistic Regression Model with matern... more Predicting infant survival rates using the Classical Binary Logistic Regression Model with maternal and child characteristics as covariates can be a challenge when the modeler requires a Maternal Age-Specific model but that is not forthcoming. Reason being that mother age is not a significant covariate in the model. One way out of this is to group mother age at child birth into class intervals of age groups and see whether infant survival outcomes vary significantly with the age groups. If this is true, then Classical Binary Logistic Regression Models one for each age group, can be fitted for predicting infant survival outcomes. A fresh challenge would be that of incomplete data since the data set would have been merged by the age groupings. This new challenge can be overcome by the Bayesian Simulation Modeling Approach. Hence our task in this study is to develop a Bayesian Simulation Modeling Procedure implemented on the Simulation package; Windows Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling (WINBUG) with the aim of modeling the relationship between Infant Survival Outcomes and Maternal and Child characteristics, for each maternal age group. Keywords :Â Modeling, Logistic
American Journal of Operations Research, 2017
Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) alongside recent modifications is a popular and us... more Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) alongside recent modifications is a popular and useful tool in project risk analysis. Over the past seven decades, there have been some modifications in PERT owing to the shift from beta distributed activity times to other activity time distributions. This paper presents a review of activity time distributions in risk analysis as found in literature up to date.
Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Jan 18, 2023
Life Expectancy is considered as a key indicator for measuring the total wellbeing of a country. ... more Life Expectancy is considered as a key indicator for measuring the total wellbeing of a country. In this paper, the impact of some socioeconomic variables on life expectancy is investigated. These variables namely: access to electricity, GDP per capita, unemployment total labour force, unemployment of youth total, health expenditure per capita, and adjusted national income were common for all countries. The Binary Logistic Regression model was considered and the analysis was done using the Forward Stepwise (Likelihood Ratio) procedure. Using the data of life expectancy of 70 countries in year 2020, results revealed that access to electricity and health expenditure per capita positively impacted on life expectancy. Countries that had Access to Electricity were 1.113 times (Prob. = 0.53) more likely to attend the worldwide life expectancy. Countries with increased Health Expenditure per Capita were 1.004 times (Prob. = 0.50) more likely to experience increase in life expectancy. Health expenditure per capita was significant at ; which implies that appropriate health financing has significant positive impact on life expectancy irrespective of country.
Udoumoh, Enobong Francis, CURRICULUM VITAE | University of Agriculture, Makurdi Open Education Resources (OER)
Multi-stage models for recovery process
East African Journal of Statistics, 2008
No Abstract> East African Journal of Statistics Vol. 1 (3) 2007: pp.317-33
Science World Journal, 2019
This study develops a Binary Logistic Model, local to the Maria Goretti hospital Anyigba, Kogi St... more This study develops a Binary Logistic Model, local to the Maria Goretti hospital Anyigba, Kogi State, Nigeria for predicting infant birth survival outcomes. Model results shows that the odds of infant survival for normal delivery are 5 times the odds of survival by caesarean delivery, keeping the weight of the infant constant and also that the odds of infant survival increases 3 times for every unit increase in the weight of an infant when the delivery method is kept constant. It was concluded that though, mother’s age which incorporate a maternal characteristic into the model was insignificant in this hospital, there is a chance that it might be significant alongside other maternal characteristics elsewhere. Hence the emphasis on developing localized models of this nature.
Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 2015
This paper examines the degree of water scarcity across Makurdi town as well as the strategies em... more This paper examines the degree of water scarcity across Makurdi town as well as the strategies employed by residents to cope with the problem. Data was gathered via questionnaire administered to 228 respondents mainly household heads (both male and female) who were randomly selected. The results reveal that total household water demand in Makurdi town is estimated at 127,600 lpd more than the actual available supply of 40,520 lpd leading to shortfalls of about 87,080 lpd. This translates to about 68.2% of water demand not satisfied by supply. Findings also show that the major coping strategies employed by residents include: dredging dry hand-dug wells to get water (30.2%), storing water in big containers (26.3%) and walking long distances to get water (18.9%). The Fisher's Exact ( statistic was employed to test for association between some sociodemographic variables and the coping strategies adopted by residents. The results reveal no association between level of education and the strategies adopted by residents. The results however shows association between level of income, place of residence and the coping strategies adopted. The Likert scaling was used to investigate the causes of water scarcity in the study area. The failure of public water supply system is widely perceived as the major cause of water scarcity in Makurdi town. The paper recommends that residents should be encouraged to pool resources together to provide water supply projects for their common use.
Global Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences, 2014
Crop production depends on rainfall, and rainfall is affected by extreme weather conditions. Mark... more Crop production depends on rainfall, and rainfall is affected by extreme weather conditions. Markov chain and time series model are adapted for the study of the pattern of rainfall in the North Central Region of Nigeria. Results reveal the long run distributions of the dry and wet days to be 0.7841, and 0.2159 respectively. The mean return time to dry and wet days is 1.2753 and 4.6318 respectively. Further result reveals that the volume of water due to rainfall is on the increase.
Global Journal of Mathematical Sciences, 2011
Markov modeling approach is adapted in a multi-stage process involving acuity levels of patients.... more Markov modeling approach is adapted in a multi-stage process involving acuity levels of patients. The multiple binary logistic regression models is used to identify some risk factors associated with the recovery process. Result shows that Blood pressure and Sugar in the blood form the significant risk factors associated with recovery.
Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 2011
Some models for the recovery process of cataract patients after surgery are presented. The use of... more Some models for the recovery process of cataract patients after surgery are presented. The use of semi-Markov modeling approach is adapted in a multi-stage process involving acuity levels of patients. The Parametric and Non-parametric methods of estimation were used for Maximum likelihood estimation of the sojourn time distribution. The stationary distribution of the Semi-Markov process (SMP) reveals 6/18 as best corrected acuity with 0.3485 proportions of patients.
American Journal of Operations Research, 2017
Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) alongside recent modifications is a popular and us... more Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) alongside recent modifications is a popular and useful tool in project risk analysis. Over the past seven decades, there have been some modifications in PERT owing to the shift from beta distributed activity times to other activity time distributions. This paper presents a review of activity time distributions in risk analysis as found in literature up to date.
Udoumoh, Enobong Francis, CURRICULUM VITAE | University of Agriculture, Makurdi Open Education Resources (OER)
Asian Research Journal of Mathematics
Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation is no d... more Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation is no doubt a useful and an acceptable tool for the analysis of project networks. However, a common challenge in practice is the inability to confidently select appropriate input distribution to represent activity durations owing to scarcity of project network data. A pilot survey of bore hole drilling projects in Benue state, Nigeria revealed that most activity duration data do not follow the Beta distribution and some other commonly used activity duration distributions. Hence, the Burr XII distribution is introduced as input activity duration distribution in the simulation of stochastic project network. Some desirable properties that qualify the use of Burr XII distribution are also presented. Results obtained using the Burr XII activity duration distribution shows advantage over the traditional PERT-Beta.
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Papers by Enobong Udoumoh