Papers by Catalin Ghinararu
International Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2015
The paper investigated the causal relationship between IRAN underground economy and unemployment ... more The paper investigated the causal relationship between IRAN underground economy and unemployment rate with Toda-Yamamoto approach for annual data during the period 1973-2012. The size of the underground economy measured as official GDP is estimated using a Multiple indicator-Multiple Causes (MIMIC) approach. The size of the underground economy has been associated with increased over the four decades, However has fluctuations in the first two decades but shows quite ascending trend in the last two decades. The empirical results point out that there is strong evidence of unidirectional causality running from unemployment rate to underground economy.
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals), Dec 1, 2016
Official statistics cannot always highlight the true scale of atypical work phenomenon in Romania... more Official statistics cannot always highlight the true scale of atypical work phenomenon in Romania because of the multitude of non-standard forms of employment and because of the fact that its regulatory and monitoring mechanisms are built in accordance with the typical work model. The purpose of our research is to try to estimate the atypical employment in Romania using a variety of statistical data basis.
Olsztyn Economic Journal, Dec 11, 2017
The paper aims to clarify in terms of political economy why countries in Central and Eastern Euro... more The paper aims to clarify in terms of political economy why countries in Central and Eastern Europe, with a special and distinct focus on Romania are seemingly unable, at least in the short and medium term, to positively alter their relative position inside the wider European economic area and particularly inside the European Union of which they are recent member states. Commencing on a statement made by Jean Francois Revel in the mid nineties and which epitomizes the travails such an economy has to endure in order to make the transition from Plan to Market, the paper then develops on the basis of the postulate of the Stolper-Samuleson theorem which states that a developing economy is not necessarily best served by excessive openness to trade flows. The paper argues, with data, that while benefits of the integration into the single market are to a certain extent undeniable, so are the costs and for some reasons, which are explained in the paper, the latter sometimes outweigh the benefits. Small open economies are adversely affected by the excessive openness to trade brought by the integration as instead of a "normal" relation of interdependence they tend to fall into a relation of "dependence" and thereby land into the undesired and undesirable status of "dependency". Dependencies are bound to "trail" their "metropolis of sorts" and thus an improvement in their relative position becomes hardly possible or simply takes a long time, which is difficult to accept for its inhabitants. Accordingly, people are simply RIGHT to be angry and frustrated about it, but they were also RIGHT when they joined, simply because when they exited communism, they did not realize that they were not at the level at which they entered it, but were very far below it! * All the data in the paper have as a source The Economist magazine (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016). Organization of the data into a full data-base is the own work of Dr. Catalin Ghinararu using his private collection of the magazine (successive weekly issues for the period) stretching back to Jan. 2001 and going to date Oct. 2016. The author considers this as a useful experitment in the use of alternative, consistent data having as provenance a well-established specialized press resource. Państwowy Instytut Badawczy ds. Pracy i Ochrony Socjalnej Uniwersytet w Bukareszcie S ł o w a k l u c z o w e: twierdzenie Stolpera-Samuelsona, przeszacowanie i niedoszacowanie PKB, orientacja na gospodarkę, modele ciążenia, "faza ekspansji", "faza załamania" cyklu, "pułapka rozwoju". A b s t r a k t Celem artykułu jest objaśnienie w kategoriach ekonomii politycznej, dlaczego państwa Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej, szczególnie Rumunia, wydają się nie być w stanie, przynajmniej w krótkim i średnim zakresie czasowym, poprawić swojej względnej pozycji w europejskim obszarze ekonomicznym, a szczególnie w Unii Europejskiej, do której od niedawna należą. Rozpoczynając od stanowiska wyrażonego przez Jeana Francoisa Revela w połowie lat dziewięćdziesiątych, w którym podsumował on wysiłki, jakie gospodarka musi podjąć, by przejść z gospodarki planowanej do rynkowej, autor kolejno rozważa postulat sformułowany w twierdzeniu Stolpera-Samulesona, dowodzący, że rozwijającej się gospodarce niekoniecznie najlepiej służy nadmierne otwarcie się na przepływ środków w handlu. Na podstawie danych autor udowadnia, że korzyści z integracji na wolnym rynku są do pewnego stopnia niepodważalne, podobnie jak koszty takiego procesu, które z pewnych powodów, objaśnionych w artykule, czasem przeważają nad zyskami. Niewielkie gospodarki wolnorynkowe podlegają negatywnym wpływom nadmiernego otwarcia na handel, wynikającym z integracji, ponieważ zamiast rozwijać "normalne" relacje współzależności, popadają w związek "zależności" i tym samym osiągają niechciany i niepożądany status "bycia zależnym". Zależności skazują je na "podążanie" za "pewnego rodzaju metropolią" i tym samym poprawa ich relatywnej pozycji staje się niemal niemożliwa lub trwa tak długo, że jest to trudne do zaakceptowania. Ludzie mają zatem rację, gdy czują się tym sfrustrowani i rozeźleni, a jednocześnie mieli rację, gdy decydowali o włączeniu do wspólnego rynku, gdyż w momencie wychodzenia z komunizmu nie zdawali sobie sprawy, że nie znajdowali się na tym poziomie, do którego dołączyli, lecz znacznie poniżej.
Annals of Spiru Haret University Economic Series, Mar 31, 2013
The article focuses on the issues of green jobs and the promotion of green economy in Romania. It... more The article focuses on the issues of green jobs and the promotion of green economy in Romania. It takes over several developments throughout the years of crisis pointing both to the progresses made as well as to the hindrances brought about by the economic depression to the efforts of developing a green sector in an emergent economy. A special part is dedicated to actions and initiatives financed via the structural and cohesion instrument as well as to the impact of various initiatives under the EU 2020 Strategy. An analysis is carried out on these initiatives, their number, their character and relative effectiveness. The article also focuses on general aspects relating to greening of the economy and the growing use of renewable resources.
The People is Always Right
People make many choices and some maybe looking nicer than they are in reality; consequences may ... more People make many choices and some maybe looking nicer than they are in reality; consequences may not be what they were intended when everything got started. The theory of comparative advantages elaborated by David Riccardo, now 200 years old postulates the advantages of free trade. However according to a piece of sometimes ignored economic theory (i.e.: the Stolper-Samuelson theorem,1941) this may not be always the truth, especially if actors of the trade flows are not equal. This book is about the competition between non-equals in a an area of unprecedented economic integration (i.e.: the European Union) and some of its unintended consequences, especially for the minor actors represented by the economies of Central and Eastern Europe. The author argues that unless something is done to revert the course of persistent internal devaluation policies in the core area of the Union then, these smaller economies are condemned to a position of periphery which will bled them dry of their mos...
Roncevaux in the Carpathians
Roncevaux in the Carpathians is both a research into the medieval history of South East Europe as... more Roncevaux in the Carpathians is both a research into the medieval history of South East Europe as it is a story about chivalry and its ideals which will appeal to men in all times. While delving with hard data and approaching scores of documents and papers in a novel way, easy to understand for the great public but also full of new insights, the book also depicts the medieval origin of rifts and lines of separation that divide Europe to present times. It point out to the origins of the long conflict that opposed Romanians and Hungarians in Transylvania and which has only found a solution in the modern day developments. It is in the same time medieval history, told fast and with details, replete with data and information while making for geopolitical reflection. The epics of the November 1330 battle of Posada - the Roncevaux in the Carpathians is told with extraordinary vivacity pertaining to direct knowledge of the battlegrounds.
Olsztyn Economic Journal, 2017
Celem artykułu jest objaśnienie w kategoriach ekonomii politycznej, dlaczego państwa Europy Środk... more Celem artykułu jest objaśnienie w kategoriach ekonomii politycznej, dlaczego państwa Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej, szczególnie Rumunia, wydają się nie być w stanie, przynajmniej w krótkim i średnim zakresie czasowym, poprawić swojej względnej pozycji w europejskim obszarze ekonomicznym, a szczególnie w Unii Europejskiej, do której od niedawna należą. Rozpoczynając od stanowiska wyrażonego przez Jeana Francoisa Revela w połowie lat dziewięćdziesiątych, w którym podsumował on wysiłki, jakie gospodarka musi podjąć, by przejść z gospodarki planowanej do rynkowej, autor kolejno rozważa postulat sformułowany w twierdzeniu Stolpera-Samulesona, dowodzący, że rozwijającej się gospodarce niekoniecznie najlepiej służy nadmierne otwarcie się na przepływ środków w handlu. Na podstawie danych autor udowadnia, że korzyści z integracji na wolnym rynku są do pewnego stopnia niepodważalne, podobnie jak koszty takiego procesu, które z pewnych powodów, objaśnionych w artykule, czasem przeważają nad zy...
Annals of Spiru Haret University Economic Series, 2013
The article focuses on the issues of green jobs and the promotion of green economy in Romania. It... more The article focuses on the issues of green jobs and the promotion of green economy in Romania. It takes over several developments throughout the years of crisis pointing both to the progresses made as well as to the hindrances brought about by the economic depression to the efforts of developing a green sector in an emergent economy. A special part is dedicated to actions and initiatives financed via the structural and cohesion instrument as well as to the impact of various initiatives under the EU 2020 Strategy. An analysis is carried out on these initiatives, their number, their character and relative effectiveness. The article also focuses on general aspects relating to greening of the economy and the growing use of renewable resources.
HARS-RSI J–ΚΠΕ-R …, 2008
The European single market makes progress in view to become a single economic area. This process ... more The European single market makes progress in view to become a single economic area. This process induces some tendencies regarding the crystallizing of the European single labour market. Following the first stage of our model (presented in detail in a ...
TECHNICAL PAPERS No. 195
This paper is one of five presented at a meeting on FDI, human capital and education in developin... more This paper is one of five presented at a meeting on FDI, human capital and education in developing countries held in Paris in mid-December 2001. They examine the links between FDI and human capital development, notably the interaction between the host country's policies affecting multinational enterprises (MNEs), its educational and training system, and the education and training activities of MNEs. The five papers are: 1) by Ethan Kapstein situating this issue in the broader context of current debates on globalisation, growth and ...
* Catalin GHINARARU currently serves as the Scientific Secretary of the National Labour Research ... more * Catalin GHINARARU currently serves as the Scientific Secretary of the National Labour Research Institute of Romania, he is a senior res. 1 st rank. * * Florin PAVELESCU is a senior res. 1 st rank with the National Economy Research Institute of the Romanian Academy. * * * Raluca DIMITRU is a professor with the law chair in the Academy of Economic Studies in Bucharest.
Procedia Economics and Finance, 2014
Shadow economy(SE) is a controversial topic that has aroused the interest of the specialists from... more Shadow economy(SE) is a controversial topic that has aroused the interest of the specialists from the 60's, when the phenomenon took a great extent. Formed in the literature under various names, the shadow economy exists in a more or less extent in all countries, regardless of their level of development, enjoying an enduring existence, although as area of research is a new "young" area. The paper aims to investigate the relationship between the size of the shadow economy (SE) and the registered and ILO unemployment rates for the case of Romanian data using Toda-Yamamoto approach for quarterly data covering the period 2000-2010. The size of the Romanian shadow economy based on the currency demand approach was estimated using multivariate cointegration and vector error correction models (VECM) in order to investigate whether a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between currency demand and its determinants. In order to investigate the relationship between the unemployment rates and the size of the shadow economy for the case of Romania we use an innovative econometric methodology to study the direction of causality between the two variables, namely Toda and Yamamoto (1995). According to , two opposing forces determine the relationship between unemployment and the informal economy. On the one hand, an increase in the unemployment rate may involve a decrease in the informal economy because it is positively related to the growth rate of GDP and eventually negatively correlated with unemployment (Okun's law). On the other hand, increase in unemployment leads to an increase in people working in the informal economy because they have more time for such activities. Dell'Anno and Solomon (2007) stated that there is a positive relationship in the short-run between unemployment rate and U.S. shadow economy for the period 1970-2004. Using SVAR analysis, they investigate the response of the shadow economy to an aggregate supply shock (impact of the shadow economy to a temporary shock in unemployment). The empirical results show that in the short-run, a positive aggregate supply shock causes the shadow economy to rise by about 8% above the baseline. According to the Toda-Yamamoto causality test results, there is strong evidence of causality running from the registered and
The paper aims to clarify in terms of political economy why countries in Central and Eastern Euro... more The paper aims to clarify in terms of political economy why countries in Central and Eastern Europe, with a special and distinct focus on Romania are seemingly unable, at least in the short and medium term, to positively alter their relative position inside the wider European economic area and particularly inside the European Union of which they are recent member states. Commencing on a statement made by Jean Francois Revel in the mid nineties and which epitomizes the travails such an economy has to endure in order to make the transition from Plan to Market, the paper then develops on the basis of the postulate of the Stolper-Samuleson theorem which states that a developing economy is not necessarily best served by excessive openness to trade flows. The paper argues, with data, that while benefits of the integration into the single market are to a certain extent undeniable, so are the costs and for some reasons, which are explained in the paper, the latter sometimes outweigh the ben...
Undeclared Work Between Theory And Reality
Revista Economica, 2011
Quantifying Atypical Employment in Romania – The Social Dimension
A re-examination of Okun's law in the presence of the shadow economy. an empirical investigation for the case of United States
The paper aims to investigate the relationship between unemployment rate and shadow economy with ... more The paper aims to investigate the relationship between unemployment rate and shadow economy with U.S. data using a re-examination of Okun's law. The shadow economy is estimated as percentage of official GDP, using MIMIC model. The size of the shadow economy as % of official GDP is estimated using a MIMIC model with four causal variables (taxes on corporate income, contributions for government social insurance, unemployment rate and self-employment) and two indicators (index of real GDP and civilian labour force participation rate). The size of the shadow economy (SE) is estimated to be decreasing over the last two decades. We extend the classical Okun's law, in order to estimate the relationship between growth rate of official economy, unemployment rate and the size of the shadow economy. The results reveal a significant direct relationship between shadow economy and the unemployment rate and an indirect relation between shadow economy and growth of official sector.
The Dornbusch-Calvo Effect in an Emergent Post-Transition Market Economy and Its Impact on the Functioning of the Labour Market. Analysis on the Case of Romania Using the National Definition Unemployment Rate
Revista Economica, 2011
Journal of Economic Development, Environment and People, Dec 30, 2016
Official statistics cannot always highlight the true scale of atypical work phenomenon in Romania... more Official statistics cannot always highlight the true scale of atypical work phenomenon in Romania because of the multitude of non-standard forms of employment and because of the fact that its regulatory and monitoring mechanisms are built in accordance with the typical work model. The purpose of our research is to try to estimate the atypical employment in Romania using a variety of statistical data basis.
The paper analyses the relationship between shadow economy and unemployment rate using a Structur... more The paper analyses the relationship between shadow economy and unemployment rate using a Structural VAR approach for quarterly data during the period 1980-2009. The size of the shadow economy as % of official GDP is estimated using a MIMIC model with four causal variables(taxes on corporate income, contributions for government social insurance, unemployment rate and self-employment) and two indicators (index of real GDP and civilian labour force participation rate). Their dimension is decreasing over the last two periods. The relationship between the two variables is further tested by imposing a long-run restriction in the Structural VAR model to analyze the impact of the shadow economy to a temporary shock in unemployment. The impulse response function generated by the Structural VAR confirms that in the short-run, a rise in the unemployment rate in formal sector will lead to an increase in the number of people who work in the shadow economy. We extend the classical Okun law, in order to estimate the relationship between growth rate of official economy, unemployment rate and the size of the shadow economy. The results reveal a significant direct relationship between shadow economy and the unemployment rate and an indirect relation between shadow economy and growth of official sector.
Economia: Seria Management, 2015
The paper aims to analyze the relationship between the size of Romanian shadow economy expressed ... more The paper aims to analyze the relationship between the size of Romanian shadow economy expressed as % of official GDP and active ageing in order to see if the shadow economy represents a social buffer for active ageing phenomena using Granger causality analysis. The size of Romanian shadow economy is estimated previously using a revised version of the currency demand approach based on autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration analysis. Using Granger causality tests, we examine the relationship between employment rate for older people and the size of Romanian shadow economy covering the period between 2000 and 2010. The empirical results revealed the existence of a long-run unidirectional causality that runs shadow economy to employment rate for elderly and do not support the existence of any short-run relationship between employment rate for older people and shadow economy.
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Papers by Catalin Ghinararu