Papers by Anna von der Heydt
Supplementary material to "Early Pliocene deepening of the tropical Atlantic thermocline
Early Pliocene deepening of the tropical Atlantic thermocline
. The tropical thermocline may have played a crucial role in maintaining weaker sea surface tempe... more . The tropical thermocline may have played a crucial role in maintaining weaker sea surface temperature gradients during the early Pliocene and in the onset of late Pliocene northern hemisphere glaciation. Whereas the Pliocene Pacific thermocline evolution is well documented, complete records of Pliocene tropical Atlantic thermocline depths are limited to the Caribbean region. Here, we use the oxygen isotope gradient between surface to subsurface dwelling planktic foraminifera from Ocean Drilling Program Site 959 in the eastern equatorial Atlantic to track vertical changes in thermocline depth over the course of the Pliocene. This record shows that eastern equatorial Atlantic thermocline depth varied substantially during the early Pliocene, before finally deepening abruptly around 4.5 Ma to remain relatively stable until at least 2.8 Ma. Eastern equatorial Atlantic and Caribbean records are almost identical, suggesting a common control on the sudden step-wise thermocline deepening across the basin, in contrast to previous assumptions. The Pliocene evolution of the tropical Atlantic thermocline differs is remarkably from the Pacific, which is characterized by gradual basin-wide shoaling. It remains unclear what mechanisms were involved in the dichotomous thermocline evolutions. Whereas Central American Seaway closure may have shoaled the Pacific thermocline, it is not yet understood if and how this process may have deepened the Atlantic thermocline. A divergent evolution of temperatures of the source regions may explain the opposite thermocline developments observed, possibly amplified by a positive feedback loop involving tropical cyclone intensity.
Effects of strongly eddying oceans on multidecadal climate variability in the Community Earth System Model
. Climate variability on multidecadal time scales appears to be organized in pronounced patterns ... more . Climate variability on multidecadal time scales appears to be organized in pronounced patterns with clear expressions in sea surface temperature, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These patterns are now well studied both in observations and global climate models and are important in the attribution of climate change. Results from CMIP5 models have indicated large biases in these patterns with consequences for ocean heat storage variability and eventually the global mean surface temperature. In this paper, we use two multi-century Community Earth System Model simulations at coarse (1°) and fine (0.1°) ocean model horizontal grid spacing to study the effects of the representation of mesoscale ocean flows on major patterns of multidecadal variability. We find that resolving mesoscale ocean flows both improves the characteristics of the modes of variability with respect to observations and increases the amplitude of the heat content variability in the individual ocean basins. The effect on the global mean surface temperature is relatively minor.
Equable climates: a meridional flux paradox?
Uncertainty quantification of climate sensitivity: State-dependence, extreme values and the probability of tipping
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The Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) was a climate shift from a largely ice-free greenhouse worl... more The Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) was a climate shift from a largely ice-free greenhouse world to an icehouse climate, involving the first major glaciation of Antarctica and global cooling occurring ∼ 34 million years ago (Ma) and lasting ∼ 790 kyr. The change is marked by a global shift in deep-sea δ 18 O representing a combination of deep-ocean cooling and growth in land ice volume. At the same time, multiple independent proxies for ocean temperature indicate sea surface cooling, and major changes in global fauna and flora record a shift toward more cold-climateadapted species. The two principal suggested explanations of this transition are a decline in atmospheric CO 2 and changes to ocean gateways, while orbital forcing likely influenced the precise timing of the glaciation. Here we review and syn-thesise proxy evidence of palaeogeography, temperature, ice sheets, ocean circulation and CO 2 change from the marine and terrestrial realms. Furthermore, we quantitatively compare proxy records of change to an ensemble of climate model simulations of temperature change across the EOT. The simulations compare three forcing mechanisms across the EOT: CO 2 decrease, palaeogeographic changes and ice sheet growth. Our model ensemble results demonstrate the need for a global cooling mechanism beyond the imposition of an ice sheet or palaeogeographic changes. We find that CO 2 forcing involving a large decrease in CO 2 of ca. 40 % (∼ 325 ppm drop) provides the best fit to the available proxy evidence, with ice sheet and palaeogeographic changes playing a secondary role. While this large decrease is consistent Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.
Supplementary material to "The Eocene-Oligocene transition: a review of marine and terrestrial proxy data, models and model-data comparisons
Quantification and interpretation of the climate variability record
This paper is currently in review for Global and Planetary Change. \\ The spectral view of variab... more This paper is currently in review for Global and Planetary Change. \\ The spectral view of variability is a compelling and adaptable tool for understanding variability of the climate. In the Mitchell (1976) seminal paper, it was used to express, on one graph with log scales, a very wide range of climate variations from millions of years to days. The spectral approach is particularly useful for suggesting causal links between forcing variability and climate response variability. However, (quasi-)periodic processes are also a natural part of the Earth system and a substantial degree of variability is intrinsic and responds to external forcing in a complex manner. There has been an enormous amount of work on understanding climate variability over the last decades. Hence in this paper, we address the question: Can we (after 40 years) update the Mitchell (1976) diagram in an essential way and provide it with a better interpretation? By reviewing both the extended observations available f...
#SciComm via the European Geoscience Union Divisions’ blogs: experiences from the editorial teams
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Effects of mesoscale ocean flows on multidecadal climate variability
<div&a... more <div> <div>Climate variability on decadal to multidecadal time scales appears to be organized in pronounced patterns with clear expressions in sea surface temperature, such as the Pacific Multidecadal Variability and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. These patterns are now well studied both in observations and in global climate models and are important in the attribution of climate change. Results in CMIP5 models have indicated large biases in these patterns with consequences for ocean heat storage variability and eventually the global mean surface temperature.</div> <div>We use two multi-century Community Earth System Model simulations at coarse (1°) and fine (0.1°) ocean model horizontal grid spacing and study the effect of the representation of mesoscale ocean flows on major patterns of multidecadal variability. We find that resolving mesoscale ocean flows both improves the characteristics of the modes of variability with respect to observations and increases the amplitude of the heat content variability in the individual ocean basins. However, the effect on the global mean surface temperature is relatively minor.</div> </div>
Transport of planktic foraminifera by ocean currents in the Uruguayan margin
<p&amp... more <p><span>Fossils of planktic foraminifera are found in marine sediments and are widely used as a proxy for past ocean conditions. The habitat of these unicellular marine zooplankton ranges from tropical to polar regions and is mostly located in the upper mixed layer of the ocean. The foraminifera form a calcium carbonate ’shell’ around their cell during their lifespan. When they die, foraminifera lose their ability to control their buoyancy and their shells sink to the ocean floor. It is often assumed that the proxies which are derived from the shells in sediment cores represent ocean conditions above the location of deposition. However, foraminifera are transported by ocean currents, both during and after their lifespan. Hence, the paleoclimatic conditions recorded from their shells may originate far from the core site, generating large footprints in foraminifera-based paleoclimatic proxies.</span><span> </span></p><p><span>In this project, we quantify the influence of the transport by ocean currents on the proxy signal of foraminifera found at core sites in the Uruguayan margin of the Punta del Este basin. This is a region where two western boundary currents meet: The southward flowing Brazil current and the northward flowing Malvinas current. We use a high resolution (0.1° horizontally) ocean general circulation model to track virtual sinking particles and the local oceanic conditions along their pathways. These model results are compared to proxy- and species analysis from the core sites. We found that offsets in modelled proxy signals due to transport in the Uruguayan margin are strongly linked to the relative position of the core site to the Brazil-Malvinas confluence. These offsets are most pronounced in the tails of the temperature distributions where they can reach up to +/- 7°C at sites located in the confluence zone. Species analysis from core tops taken slightly north of this region show more cold water species than reflected by the modelled temperature distributions, suggesting biological activity and nutrient availability not taken into account in the model play an important additional role in the relative abundances of species. <br></span><span>Our model simulations have provided both a first order insight into the potential proxy-signal offsets in highly dynamic ocean regions and show that understanding of the interplay between transportation effects and the biological activity of foraminifera is crucial for the interpretation of these proxies.</span></p><p> </p>
Resolution-dependent variations of sinking particle trajectories in general circulation models: Implications for data-model comparison in past climate
<p>... more <p>Any type of non-buoyant material in the ocean is transported by currents during its sinking journey. This transport can be far from negligible for typical (plankton) particles with a low sinking velocity. To estimate the lateral transport, the material can be modelled as a set of Lagrangian particles advected by currents that are obtained from Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs). State-of-the-art OGCMs are often strongly eddying, providing flow fields with a horizontal resolution of  10km on a daily basis. However, many long term climate modelling studies (e.g. in palaeoclimate) rely on low resolution models that cannot capture mesoscale features. The lower model resolution could influence data-model comparisons using Lagrangian techniques, but this is not properly evaluated yet through a direct comparison.</p><p>In this study, we simulate the transport of sinking Lagrangian particles using low (1°; non-eddying)  and high (0.1°; eddying) horizontal resolution OGCMs of the present-day ocean, and evaluate the effect of the two resolutions on particle transport. We find major differences between the transport in the non-eddying versus the eddying OGCM (in terms of the divergence of particle trajectories and their mean trajectory). Addition of stochastic noise to the particle trajectory parameterizes the effect of eddies well in some regions (e.g. in the North Pacific gyre).</p><p>We recommend to apply sinking Lagrangian particles only in velocity fields with eddying OGCMs, which basically excludes all paleo-simulations. We are currently simulating the equilibrium Eocene (38Ma) climate using an eddying OGCM, to be able to apply these Lagrangian techniques in an eddying ocean of the past. We expect this to lead towards a better agreement between the OGCM and sedimentary fossil microplankton.</p>
Journal of Statistical Physics
A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations,... more A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized (‘instantaneous’) with fully nonlinear geometric (‘two-point’) notions of ECS, in both presence and absence of tipping points. For a stochastic energy balance model of the global mean surface temperature with two stable regimes, we confirm that tipping events cause the appearance of extremes in both notions of ECS. Moreover, multiple regimes with different mean sensitivities are visible in the two-point ECS. We confirm some of our findings in a physics-based multi-box model of the climate system.
Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System
It is well known that periodic forcing of a nonlinear system, even of a two-dimensional autonomou... more It is well known that periodic forcing of a nonlinear system, even of a two-dimensional autonomous system, can produce chaotic responses with sensitive dependence on initial conditions if the forcing induces sufficient stretching and folding of the phase space. Quasiperiodic forcing can similarly produce chaotic responses, where the transition to chaos on changing a parameter can bring the system into regions of strange non-chaotic behaviour. Although it is generally acknowledged that the timings of Pleistocene ice ages are at least partly due to Milankovitch forcing (which may be approximated as quasiperiodic, with energy concentrated near a small number of frequencies), the precise details of what can be inferred about the timings of glaciations and deglaciations from the forcing is still unclear. In this paper, we perform a quantitative comparison of the response of several low-order nonlinear conceptual models for these ice ages to various types of quasiperiodic forcing. By computing largest Lyapunov exponents and mean periods, we demonstrate that many models can have a chaotic response to quasiperiodic forcing for a range of forcing amplitudes, even though some of the simplest conceptual models do not. These results suggest that pacing of ice ages to forcing may have only limited determinism.
Past Global Changes Magazine
Annual Review of Marine Science
Climate sensitivity represents the global mean temperature change caused by changes in the radiat... more Climate sensitivity represents the global mean temperature change caused by changes in the radiative balance of climate; it is studied for both present/future (actuo) and past (paleo) climate variations, with the former based on instrumental records and/or various types of model simulations. Paleo-estimates are often considered informative for assessments of actuo-climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, but this utility remains debated because of concerns about the impacts of uncertainties, assumptions, and incomplete knowledge about controlling mechanisms in the dynamic climate system, with its multiple interacting feedbacks and their potential dependence on the climate background state. This is exacerbated by the need to assess actuo-and paleoclimate sensitivity over different timescales, with different drivers, and with different (data and/or model) limitations. Here, we visualize these impacts with idealized representations that graphically illustrate the nature of time-dependent actuo-and paleoclimate sensitivity estimates, evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, agreements, and differences of the two approaches. We also highlight priorities for future research to improve the use of paleo-estimates in evaluations of current climate change.
Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System
Equilibrium climate sensitivity is a key predictor of climate change. However, it is not very wel... more Equilibrium climate sensitivity is a key predictor of climate change. However, it is not very well constrained, either by climate models or by observational data. The reasons for this include strong internal variability and forcing on many timescales. In practice, this means that the 'equilibrium' will only be relative to fixing the slow feedback processes before comparing palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates with estimates from model simulations. In addition, information from the late Pleistocene ice age cycles indicates that the climate cycles between cold and warm regimes, and the climate sensitivity varies considerably between regime because of fast feedback processes changing relative strength and timescales over one cycle. In this paper, we consider climate sensitivity for quite general climate dynamics. Using a conceptual Earth system model of Gildor and Tziperman (A sea ice climate switch mechanism for the 100-kyr glacial cycles. J Geophys Res 2001; 106: 9117-33) (with Milankovich forcing and dynamical ocean biogeochemistry), we explore various ways of quantifying the state dependence of climate sensitivity from unperturbed and perturbed model time series. Even without considering any perturbation, we suggest that climate sensitivity can be usefully thought of as a distribution that quantifies variability within the 'climate attractor'. On the 'climate attractor', there is a strong dependence on climate state or more specifically on the 'climate regime' where fast processes are approximately in equilibrium. We also consider perturbations by instantaneous doubling of CO 2 and similarly find a strong dependence on the climate state using our approach.
Climate of the Past, 2016
Studies on the palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography using numerical model simulations may be consi... more Studies on the palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography using numerical model simulations may be considerably dependent on the implemented geographical reconstruction. Because building the palaeogeographic datasets for these models is often a time-consuming and elaborate exercise, palaeoclimate models frequently use reconstructions in which the latest state-of-the-art plate tectonic reconstructions, palaeotopography and-bathymetry, or vegetation have not yet been incorporated. In this paper, we therefore provide a new method to efficiently generate a global geographical reconstruction for the middle-late Eocene. The generalised procedure is also reusable to create reconstructions for other time slices within the Cenozoic, suitable for palaeoclimate modelling. We use a plate-tectonic model to make global masks containing the distribution of land, continental shelves, shallow basins and deep ocean. The use of depth-age relationships for oceanic crust together with adjusted present-day topography gives a first estimate of the global geography at a chosen time frame. This estimate subsequently needs manual editing of areas where existing geological data indicate that the altimetry has changed significantly over time. Certain generic changes (e.g. lowering mountain ranges) can be made relatively easily by defining a set of masks while other features may require a more specific treatment. Since the discussion regarding many of these regions is still ongoing, it is crucial to make it easy for changes to be incorporated without having to redo the entire procedure. In this manner, a complete reconstruction can be made that suffices as a boundary condition for numerical models with a limited effort. This facilitates the interaction between experts in geology and palaeoclimate modelling, keeping reconstructions up to date and improving the consistency between different studies. Moreover, it facilitates model intercomparison studies and sensitivity tests regarding certain geographical features as newly generated boundary conditions can more easily be incorporated in different model simulations. The workflow is presented covering a middle-late Eocene reconstruction (38 Ma), using a MatLab script and a complete set of source files that are provided in the supplementary material.
Localization of multidecadal variability : II. Spectral origin of multidecadal modes
J Phys Oceanogr, 2007
Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 2016
Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenari... more Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high (> 800 ppmv) atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations. Although a post-hoc intercomparison of Eocene (~50 million years ago, Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO<sub>2</sub> periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the latest Paleocene and the early Eocene. Together these form the first phase of DeepMIP – the deeptime model intercomparison project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design consists of three core paleo simulations and a set of optional sensitivity studies. The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associate...
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Papers by Anna von der Heydt