Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, May 11, 2023
In this paper, Zero-truncated negative binomial distribution is modified to include excess ones t... more In this paper, Zero-truncated negative binomial distribution is modified to include excess ones to improve goodness-of-fit. This is necessary when data are dispersed and zero has been eliminated from data structurally. However, when the ones are unduly large, the proportion of this excess must be recognized and estimated to improve the fit. This development is applied using real data from a national survey.
Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Jul 19, 2021
A new two-parameter lifetime distribution has been proposed in this study. The distribution is ca... more A new two-parameter lifetime distribution has been proposed in this study. The distribution is called Samade distribution. The model is motivated by the wide use of the lifetime models derived from the mixture of gamma and exponential distributions. Its mathematical properties which include the first four moments, variance as well as coefficient of variation, reliability function, hazard function, survival function, Renyi entropy measure and distribution of order statistics have been successfully derived. The maximum likelihood estimation of its parameters and application to real life data have been discussed. Application of this model to three real datasets shown that the proposed model yields a satisfactorily better fit than other existing lifetime distributions. The comparism of goodness-of-fits were established using-2Loglikelihood, AIC and BIC.
Despite various efforts and policy implementation aimed at controlling and eliminating malaria, i... more Despite various efforts and policy implementation aimed at controlling and eliminating malaria, imported malaria remains a major factor posing challenges in places that have made progress in malaria elimination. The persistence of malaria in Limpopo Province has largely been attributed to imported cases, thus reducing the pace of achieving the malaria-free target by 2025. Data from the Limpopo Malaria Surveillance Database System (2010–2020) was analyzed, and a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed to forecast malaria incidence based on the incidence data’s temporal autocorrelation. The study found that out of 57,288 people that were tested, 51,819 (90.5%) cases were local while 5469 (9.5%) cases were imported. Mozambique (44.9%), Zimbabwe (35.7%), and Ethiopia (8.5%) were the highest contributors of imported cases. The month of January recorded the highest incidence of cases while the least was in August. Analysis of the yearly figures show...
Al-Bahir Journal for Engineering and Pure Sciences
In this paper, a New Generalized Gamma-Weibull (NGGW) distribution is developed by compounding We... more In this paper, a New Generalized Gamma-Weibull (NGGW) distribution is developed by compounding Weibull and generalized gamma distribution. Some mathematical properties such as moments, R enyi entropy and order statistics are derived and discussed. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is used to estimate the model parameters. The proposed model is applied to two real-life datasets to illustrate its performance and flexibility as compared to some other competing distributions. The results obtained show that the new distribution fits each of the data better than the other competing distributions.
A new mixed Poisson model is proposed as a better alternative for modelling count data in the pre... more A new mixed Poisson model is proposed as a better alternative for modelling count data in the presence of overdispersion and/or heavy-tail. The mathematical properties of the model were derived. The maximum likelihood estimation method is employed to estimate the model’s parameters and its applications to the three real data sets discussed. The model is used to model sets of frequencies that have been used in different literature on the subject. The results of the new model were compared with Poisson, Negative Binomial and Generalized Poisson-Sujatha distributions (POD, NBD and GPSD, respectively). The parameter estimates expected frequencies and the goodness-of-fit statistics under each model are computed using R software. The results show that the proposed PSD fits better than POD, NBD and GPSD for all the data sets considered. Hence, PSD is a better alternative provided to model count data exhibiting overdispersion property.
A new two-parameter lifetime distribution has been proposed in this study. The distribution is ca... more A new two-parameter lifetime distribution has been proposed in this study. The distribution is called Samade distribution. The model is motivated by the wide use of the lifetime models derived from the mixture of gamma and exponential distributions. Its mathematical properties which include the first four moments, variance as well as coefficient of variation, reliability function, hazard function, survival function, Renyi entropy measure and distribution of order statistics have been successfully derived. The maximum likelihood estimation of its parameters and application to real life data have been discussed. Application of this model to three real datasets shown that the proposed model yields a satisfactorily better fit than other existing lifetime distributions. The comparism of goodness-of-fits were established using -2Loglikelihood, AIC and BIC.
A new lifetime model known as power generalized Akash distribution (PGAD), which extends generali... more A new lifetime model known as power generalized Akash distribution (PGAD), which extends generalized Akash (GA) distribution has been proposed in this paper. The PGAD was inspired by the wide use of the Akash and GA distributions in various applied areas. Some structural characteristics of the new model were studied such as moments, reliability, hazard rate function, survival function, Renyi entropy measure and order statistics. The parameters of the model were obtained via the maximum likelihood estimation method. The flexibility and importance of the new distribution has been illustrated by its applications to two real datasets. Using BIC, AIC and 2Loglikelihood, it is obvious that the PGAD is more effective than Topp-Leone Lomax (TLLo), Generalized Akash (GA), Power Pranav (PP) and Power Transformed Power Inverse Lindley (APTPIL) distributions in modelling real lifetime data.
One of the sustained political and economic strategies that have been adopted by various countrie... more One of the sustained political and economic strategies that have been adopted by various countries over 3 decades to achieve the desired level of development is fiscal federalism. Through this economic development strategy, various levels of government within an economy have been involved in the pursuit of reducing poverty overtime. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between government expenditure on poverty reduction with respect to federal and state government expenditures, respectively. The study employed the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation technique to establish long-run relationship, and to examine the magnitude of the effect of federal and state government expenditures in both the short-run and long-run periods using time-series data for the period 1981-2018. Results obtained indicate that only state government expenditure has positive effect on poverty reduction in Nigeria. The findings of this study, therefore, support the need for greater decentralization and increase in fiscal expenditure responsibilities and strengthening revenue capability in favor of state governments, giving that achieving desired poverty reduction could be achieved through increased state government spending on developmental projects.
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Papers by Samuel Aderoju