Philip Barry

Simulation in Context: Using Data Farming for Decision Support

Data Farming leverages high performance computing to run simple models many times. This process a... more Data Farming leverages high performance computing to run simple models many times. This process allows for the exploration of massive parameter spaces relatively quickly. This paper explores a methodology to use Data Farming as a decision support tool. Data Farming can be a highly effective in this role because it allows one to present to a decision-maker not only what may be the most likely outcome but what are possible outcomes, especially outliers that might have far reaching impact. The terrorist attacks of September 2001 are a good example of an outlier with very high impact. A case study is presented using a simple terrorist attack simulation and decision-maker utility model.

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A systems engineering perspective of timing information for optimized decision making

In this paper the authors explore an alternative cause, and proposed solution, as to why over 30%... more In this paper the authors explore an alternative cause, and proposed solution, as to why over 30% of projects are deemed failures and almost half experience scope creep and schedule slippages; and more than 40% incurring cost overruns. Today many projects work in a reactionary mode when decisions are needed, stakeholders use historic data (lagging indicators) and personal experience to choose among a set of options. In this research, the authors propose to proactively engineer the information environment to inform and shape evidence-based decisions as well as better communicate intent across stakeholders, thereby creating better alignment between project teams, sponsors, and project objectives. The authors assert that the pacing of information for informed decision making is key to reducing project risks. To accomplish this, the authors developed a project information profiler and accompanying information risk coefficient, MZ coefficient, that can be employed to find and address the...

A Sociotechnical Approach to Project Success for Multi-Stakeholder, Dynamic System Development Project Environments

In this paper the authors explore a novel quantitative approach for measuring conditions conduciv... more In this paper the authors explore a novel quantitative approach for measuring conditions conducive for successful project performance by modeling and analyzing the complex relationships between stakeholders as a sociotechnical system. This approach combines a dynamic assessment of supplier/acquirer concurrence on issues of importance and measures both their commitment and the concurrence between the two parties. Key to the approach is the modeling of a project as a network of stakeholders who need to cooperate to successfully realize the envisioned outcome of the project. The authors leverage belief modeling introduced in previous conference proceedings by the authors. Alignment of beliefs between parties is modeled an assessed in areas critical to project success. Further the authors applied the concept of information entropy based upon belief trajectories over time to assess the stability of the project environment. Further, belief alignment provides a useful measure to perform po...

Identifying Hidden Risks in Multi-Stakeholder, Dynamic System Development Environments

In this paper the authors explore the causes and effects of material weaknesses in multi-stakehol... more In this paper the authors explore the causes and effects of material weaknesses in multi-stakeholder, dynamic system development environments. In traditional system development, cost, schedule and performance measures and metrics are often used to baseline activity and quantify risk. Yet, system development efforts often fail to deliver the desired outcome or have catastrophic in-progress effects regardless of achieving the desired milestones and metrics. While cost, schedule and performance challenges clearly identify risks, the authors assert that the alignment of beliefs between stakeholders about expectations across system development activities add a level of insight that improves the ability of stakeholders to discover unknown risks and manage to successful system outcomes. To test this assertion the authors developed a probabilistic Bayesian Belief Network informed by retrospective, historical case studies. The model provides a mechanism to understand the stakeholders’ belief...

Using Modeling and Simulation and Artificial Intelligence to Improve Complex Adaptive Systems Engineering

International Journal of Modeling, Simulation, and Scientific Computing

Multiparty engineering is a contact sport

2013 IEEE International Systems Conference (SysCon), 2013

ABSTRACT In this paper, the authors suggest that essential coordination aspects multiparty engine... more ABSTRACT In this paper, the authors suggest that essential coordination aspects multiparty engineering can be formally modeled with utility and game theoretic approaches. The computational complexity of evolving utility theories which change the payoff structures and consequently the “game” that the boundedly rational participants are playing along with the stochastic nature of the decisions are investigated using an agent-based model.

Intelligent Assistive Technologies

Presence: Teleoperators and Virtual Environments, 1994

Intelligent assistive technology (IAT) refers to the integration of existing assistive technology... more Intelligent assistive technology (IAT) refers to the integration of existing assistive technology with artificial intelligence (AI) techniques and advanced environment interfaces. AI can be used to integrate a great deal of sensor information, to amplify primary intent as well as to conduct background tasks. Through the application of AI we believe that we can level the playing field for persons with disabilities and maximize existing and future capabilities of assistive devices. By beginning a dialogue now between the developers of AI and assistive technology, IAT can become a reality.

Mining characteristic rules for understanding simulation data

14th IEEE International Conference on Tools with Artificial Intelligence, 2002. (ICTAI 2002). Proceedings., 2002

... Jianping Zhang Jerzy Bala Philip S. Barry Theodore E. Meyer Sarah K. Johnson MITRE Corporatio... more

Architecting a knowledge discovery engine for military commanders utilizing massive runs of simulations

Proceedings of the ninth ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining - KDD '03, 2003

ABSTRACT The Marine Corps&#39; Project Albert seeks to model complex phenomenon by observing ... more ABSTRACT The Marine Corps&#39; Project Albert seeks to model complex phenomenon by observing the behavior of relatively simple simulations over thousands of runs. A rich data base is developed by running the simulations thousands of times, varying the agent and scenario input parameters as well as the random seeds. Exploring this result space may provide significant insight into nonlinear, surprising, and emergent behaviors. Capturing these results can provide a path for making the results usable for decision support to a military commander. This paper presents two data mining approaches, rule discovery and Bayesian networks, for analyzing the Albert simulation data. The first approach generates rules from the data and then uses them to create descriptive model. The second generates Bayesian Networks which provide a quantitative belief model for decision support. Both of these approaches as well as the Project Albert simulations are framed in the context of a system architecture for decision support.

Simulation in Context: Using Data Farming for Decision Support

Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, 2004., 2004

Data Farming leverages high performance computing to run simple models many times. This process a... more Data Farming leverages high performance computing to run simple models many times. This process allows for the exploration of massive parameter spaces relatively quickly. This paper explores a methodology to use Data Farming as a decision support tool. Data Farming can be a highly effective in this role because it allows one to present to a decision-maker not only what may be the most likely outcome but what are possible outcomes, especially outliers that might have far reaching impact. The terrorist attacks of September 2001 are a good example of an outlier with very high impact. A case study is presented using a simple terrorist attack simulation and decision-maker utility model.

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Leveraging Agent Based Simulation for Rapid Course of Action Development

Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, 2005., 2005

In the spring of 2005 a limited objective experiment was carried out to assess the feasibility of... more In the spring of 2005 a limited objective experiment was carried out to assess the feasibility of using agent based simulations to enhance co-evolutionary course of action development. In particular, relatively low fidelity simulations were employed to visualize the results of particular courses of action. Over four days multiple courses of action were developed by two opposing teams with similar force structures and then run against one another in an agent based modeling environment to test their ability to achieve the given mission. The results of the experiment indicate that there is significant potential for low fidelity simulations to stimulate objective thinking in course of action development.

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DoD initiatives in distributed simulation technology. a panel discussion

2000 Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.00CH37165), 2000

Panelists respond to three questions, " How does your DoD initiative promise to increase readines... more Panelists respond to three questions, " How does your DoD initiative promise to increase readiness for the fighting forces?", "Where will the distributed simulation technology in your program take us by 2005?" and "What changes in available DoD infrastructure would facilitate the use of the system(s) emerging from your program?" The panelists include senior members of the Department of Defense civilian management team working in the Modeling and Simulation field.

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Systems Engineering Solution for Technology Deployment to Combat Complex Threat Scenarios in the Homeland

2008 IEEE Conference on Technologies for Homeland Security, 2008

... Michael Tierney, Samar K. Guharay, David Colella, Garry Jacyna, Philip Barry ... Valuable dis... more

Modeling Information Utility in Systems of Systems

2007 1st Annual IEEE Systems Conference, 2007

ABSTRACT This paper proposes a methodology for examining the effect of pervasive information in a... more ABSTRACT This paper proposes a methodology for examining the effect of pervasive information in a system of systems environment. The paper commences with the context and background of the net-centric environment. An analytic framework is then suggested to describe the effect of increasing information on operations. This is followed by description of the simulation experiment, experimental results and next steps.

Using Generative Analysis for Homeland Security: Modeling the Possibilities and the Probabilities

2008 IEEE Conference on Technologies for Homeland Security, 2008

The problem of homeland security poses a virtually endless series of challenges. Frequently, thes... more

Agent-Directed Simulation for Systems Engineering

Agent-Directed Simulation and Systems Engineering, 2009

As the fielding of enterprise systems of systems becomes common it becomes increasingly important... more As the fielding of enterprise systems of systems becomes common it becomes increasingly important to understand the interactions between the systems as well as the important role that human behavior plays. This paper suggests that Agent-Directed Simulation is a valuable and crucial analysis tool for the Systems Engineer. The paper examines the concept of Agent-Directed Simulation for Systems Engineering and then introduces the notion of Human Complex Systems. An analysis infrastructure is described and a case study is provided to illustrate the concepts.

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Optimization of Heterogeneous Simulations of Complex Enterprise Systems

2008 2nd Annual IEEE Systems Conference, 2008

... or implicit, such as a loose prototyping to facilitate communication with the subject social ... more

Visualization of Systems of Systems Simulations: Density Plots and Trajectory Storyboarding

2007 1st Annual IEEE Systems Conference, 2007

In the many cases where there are no solvable closed-form solutions for the dynamics of Systems o... more

Systems Engineering Solution for Technology Deployment to Combat Complex Threat Scenarios in the Homeland

… Security, 2008 IEEE …, 2008

... Michael Tierney, Samar K. Guharay, David Colella, Garry Jacyna, Philip Barry ... Valuable dis... more

An application of uncertain reasoning to requirements engineering

Proceedings of the Fifteenth conference on …, 1999

This paper examines the use of Bayesian Networks to tackle one of the tougher problems in require... more This paper examines the use of Bayesian Networks to tackle one of the tougher problems in requirements engineering, translating user requirements into system requirements. The approach taken is to model domain knowledge as Bayesian Network fragments that are glued together to form a complete view of the domain specific system requirements. User requirements are introduced as evidence and the propagation of belief is used to determine what are the appropriate system requirements as indicated by user requirements. This concept has been demonstrated in the development of a system specifi cation and the results are presented here.

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